Please help, need advice (long)

[ QUOTE ]
I will say a few things that have been kind of brushed past in this thread, or said in the midst of insults and ignored. Please understand, Milenko, that I'm just trying to help you out a bit by saying what I'm saying - you may well be a very good poker player, but this advice is probably worthwhile.


1) You will not make $150/hr playing 6/12. You will not make $100/hr, or $50, or probably (based on the limited information you gave us) even $25/hr.

When we talk about winrates here, we talk in terms of BB/100 - or big bets per 100 hands. In other words, we talk about the number of big bets ($12 bets in your case) that we can win on average in 100 hands. In a B&M casino, you'll probably get 30-35 hands in each hour; for the sake of simplicity, we'll say it takes 3 hours to get 100 hands in. For you to make $450 in 3 hours, you'd have to make about 38 BB/100.

Sadly, this sort of winrate is impossible, and it isn't even close. A player who is crushing a .5/1 table online might make 4 BB/100. And as the limits go up, this number goes down. But if you could be a great 6/12 player and make 4 BB/100, you'd still only be making $48 every 100 hands - or $16 an hour.

You are looking at short term results and assuming they will generally hold up for you. This is a very dangerous assumption to be making.

2) One thing that needs to be understood is just how different the online games are to the ones in the casino you've played in. They are filled with much tougher players at similar limits, so much so that your 6/12 game is probably equivalent in difficulty to a 1/2 table on PartyPoker (and depending on what your 6/12 table is like, maybe even a .5/1 game). If you jumped into a 5/10 game online, you would likely be crushed by the players at that level.

3) Possibly the biggest red flag was your statement about having trouble with the very loose players at the lower limit games. Quite frankly, if these players are frustrating you, you're not ready to be playing against better competition. Our money is made off of players who are making mistakes, not ones who are playing correctly. The more mistakes the better, and nobody makes more mistakes than the super-loose fish that populate the 2/4 and 3/6 games in your local casino.


I hope you take all of this into consideration and decide that you're not ready to make poker a significant part of your income right now. If not, and you do decide to, best of luck.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thank you for explaining the big bets per 100 hands thing.

I am not "bragging" about my abilities, or saying that I think I am a poker "god" when I say that I truly was making $150 (roughly) per hour. I'm not saying that I've been playing a long time, but when I did win at 6/12 and 9/18, I typically won about $150 an hour. I'm not just talking one or two nights, or even one or two weeks doing this. If I am having a good night where people aren't catching miracle cards every hand, I make $150 an hour playing 6/12 and 9/18.

Let me give you an example of a night that I lost. I came to play 6/12, sat at a table, won some, lost some, won some, lost some, etc. So I decided to switch tables.

I sat down at the next available 6/12 table, which happened to have this guy with barely any teeth, a big smile, and a gigantic stack of chips. He had around $1,000 in nice little racks, stacked up in front of him.

The guy was playing EVERY single hand, raising pre-flop, raising and raising and raising. Amazingly, he ALWAYS won. If he put his chips on the table, they came back. Every time.

Either he was cheating, which I doubt in Commerce, as they are reputed to have the best security in the area, or he was on an insane luck streak. Either way, it was impossible for me to win.

When stuff like that happens, you bet your butt that I get a little upset. Sklansky's advice goes right down the drain in those situations. The idea that I would love to play this guy all day, every day is irrelevant when he continually catches miracle cards and wipes me out.

And that's all I see at the lower stakes. Not from the same person every time, of course. But when ten people see a flop, only two of which actually should be in the hand, at least one out of the other 8 is bound to hit their crappy cards.

It would be different if there were only a few maniacs at the table. I've witnessed that. Those are the tables I make the money at. I search for those tables. Me and the other good players simply take turns collecting the crappy players' chips. It's beautiful.

I'm not saying "you're wrong and I'm right." The truth is, I don't know anything more than what I've seen so far. Ever heard the expression "we are the sum of our experiences?" That's me. I have gone to a casino on several occasions with $300 (sometimes less), played 6/12 and 9/18 for about 6 or 7 hours, and come home with $900-1,000 in my pocket. Maybe that's deceptive, but it definitely happened on more than a few occasions.

And that is why I find it hard to understand what you are saying.

But I will definitely take what you have said into consideration, and will probably start out at the 0.5/1 games online until I have gained some experience.

I honestly appreciate everything you said. It may seem as if I am just complaining about a few certain things, but believe me, I read your post several times, and truly appreciate it in its entirety.

[mdeck]

Ohhh, I see what you're saying. The days when it's "impossible" for you to win don't count because it deflates your happy self-delusion. I get it now...

[ QUOTE ]
Ohhh, I see what you're saying. The days when it's "impossible" for you to win don't count because it deflates your happy self-delusion. I get it now...

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow, how very constructive and witty of you.

[pudley4]

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks again for all the advice, guys. I just have a few questions, and a few responses.

First off, what the heck does "BB" stand for? Big Blind? I'm not sure what people are talking about when they are saying stuff like "I lost 200 BB" or "I'm winning 1.92 BB/100." Sorry if I'm asking a question you all see here fifty times a day, but I'm new to online poker chat jargon. Thanks in advance for your patience, understanding, and help.

Second...I read that "My failure as a poker pro" thread, and it sounds a tiny bit like what happened to me at first. I was really stupid and took everything I had to the casino and lost it all a couple times. I never moved up to compensate, never played online, and only entered one tournament before I realized I should not be playing in tournaments. And it only cost me $130.

I did do stupid crap like scam people for money to get a bankroll. I actually went on ebay and sold "merchandise cards" that didn't exist for around $200 each. I definitely overdrafted my bank account (which actually got charged off). I am in debt WAY over my eyeballs.

However, the reason I started doing all this is because a guy that I had just met (who turned out to be a coke addict) scammed me out of around $2,000 within a month. He was a friend of mine for about 6 months before he did this, and was apparently just setting me up the whole time.

So, he put me in a position where I NEEDED money, real bad. Unfortunately, I became unemployed at about the same time he scammed me, so I had no source of reliable income. To top it all off, I live in Los Angeles, where worth-while jobs can be very difficult to come by.

So, I scammed people (business owners who could afford it - not justifying it - but, they could). I got about $700 from the scam, took it all to the casino, and had a two-week long run. I was able to pay off about $1,000 worth of the damage that my "friend" had caused. I still owe about $2,000, due to interest, bounced checks, and whatever. I am actually facing criminal charges for a few $20 - $30 checks I wrote just after he took the money (which is ridiculous to me, because I had every intention of honoring those tiny checks, but was unable to because my "friend" never payed me back).

I am now taking a break from cash games, but keeping sharp at the play-money games on some online sites. I have a job as an administrative assistant at a great company through a temp agency. I am making $13.42/hour, which is great for me.

My plan, after long hours of conversations/contemplations and reading a ton of posts here at 2+2 is to save a little money every month until I have about $3,000 saved up for poker. Then, I will start playing poker online, at the level I feel comfortable with (5/10, 6/12), and just play whenever I have free time.

If my bankroll disappears with that plan, I will know that poker is not for me. I will quit and chalk it up as a neat experience. Like I said before, I am not really a "gambler." The crazy things I mentioned doing were done in an extreme situation. I was desparate at that time. I would have done almost anything to make money, and poker just happened to be the idea of the moment.

Now that my life is more stable, I truly feel that I can approach this thing with a level head and be smart about it. I have decided that I do NOT want to go pro, but I would like to see if I can make some extra money on the side to help me finance some fun in my life. I am okay with the idea that I might not be able to do this, but I am eager to see if it works out.

I am sure that some of the things I have done will shock some of you, and some of you might even think that I should stop playing poker all together. I appreciate your input, but would just like to reaffirm the fact that I do NOT have an addictive personality. I have even heard people tell me that I quit too soon, when my chips are up, that I should stay and "ride the wave." I know when to stop, and very rarely find myself on "tilt." I am perfectly happy with simply doubling up and leaving (most of the time). If I notice my chip stack dwindling after a few hours of winning, I will stop and go home.

I would appreciate any and all input concerning this long post. I certainly have appreciated the input so far. Thanks again.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm going to respond to a couple of these:

1 - [ QUOTE ]
First off, what the heck does "BB" stand for?

[/ QUOTE ]

If you've truly studied the 2+2 books you claim to have, you'd know this. This is not a good sign.

2 - [ QUOTE ]
I never moved up to compensate

[/ QUOTE ]

Compensate for what? Losing money? Moving up to try to win back losses is a sign of a gambler with no understanding of what he's doing. Compensate for the bad players (i.e. "they play so bad I can't win and I need to play against better players who I can read and who will respect my bets/raises")? This is the sign of a bad poker player who doesn't understand where the money comes from - it comes from players making mistakes. Players who call your AA with K3. Not from players who fold AQ to your AA.

3 - [ QUOTE ]
I am now taking a break from cash games, but keeping sharp at the play-money games on some online sites.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is like saying "I'm taking a break from playing Major League Baseball, but I'm keeping sharp by hitting a baseball off a tee." It's two completely different games. Unless you need to practice clicking a button, play money games are worthless for practice.

4 - [ QUOTE ]
I will start playing poker online, at the level I feel comfortable with (5/10, 6/12), and just play whenever I have free time

[/ QUOTE ]

You will lose all of your money following this plan. It may take a while, due to the small number of hours you'll play, the fact that you're likely to quit while you're ahead, and plain old variance. But I guarantee you will not beat these games at your current skill level/knowledge/outlook/attitude.

5 - [ QUOTE ]
I know when to stop, and very rarely find myself on "tilt." I am perfectly happy with simply doubling up and leaving (most of the time). If I notice my chip stack dwindling after a few hours of winning, I will stop and go home.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is just completely wrong. You do not look to "double up and leave most of the time". You do not leave if you "notice your (my) chip stack dwindling". These are results-oriented actions that good players don't take. You can't control the cards, all you can control is your play. If you play good, stay. If you play bad, leave.

Last recommendation - take some of your money, build a bankroll by bonus whoring (look in the internet forum for instructions on how to build a bankroll), play low limits online (.5/1) - no I'm not kidding - you'll probably lose there at first too, post hands in the micro-stakes forum, respond to other hands with your own advice, and be prepared to be wrong a lot. Finally, get some humility. There are hundreds of players here who would kick your ass at the poker table without even trying, and many of them will actually help you if you let them, but being argumentative is the first step on the road to the ignore list.

(gotta go, no time to preview, sorry for any mistakes)

[mdeck]

[ QUOTE ]


Wow, how very constructive and witty of you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay how about this instead of arguing endlessly against people with more Poker experience than you, take $500 and start playing the .50/1 tables and work your way up. It's clear that you aren't going to listen to anyone here. Feel free to learn the hard way.

[punter11235]

From your description its rather obvious that you are poker newbie and you have no knowledge and experience to become a pro.
Start another job and just treat poker like a hobby until you have few months of winning experience. Many people here played sucesfully for moths (years) before becoming pros.
I for example won at poker like 3xyear avg salary in my country before deciding to go pro (and I am still a student and have other options if I couldnt make it as a pro).
You really need months of experience to be sure (or rather to strongly suspect) that you have a chance as a pro. Your winning might be just a lucky streak. Ok, its still possible that you have some talent and potential to become good player but you certainly are not now.
Get a job. Get money and get nice hobby which poker is. That's the best you can do.

Best wishes

[jman220]

Lol, Guys, clearly this guy has a system to beat the 6/12 for money that the rest of us only dream of. I mean, sure, our collective millions of hands of experience, plus the knowledge of several math geniuses who post on this forum, tell us its impossible to sustain the win rates he describes, but hey, he obviously has a system, and knows something the rest of us don't. You have nothing to learn from these boards Milenko, you are better than everyone, not even the pros like El Diablo/Schneids/etc. can top your win rate. $150 an hour at 6/12 live. That is incredible. You should write a book.

Oh, and by the way: [ QUOTE ]
When stuff like that happens, you bet your butt that I get a little upset. Sklansky's advice goes right down the drain in those situations.

[/ QUOTE ] Red Flag #8 [ QUOTE ]
But when ten people see a flop, only two of which actually should be in the hand, at least one out of the other 8 is bound to hit their crappy cards.

[/ QUOTE ] Red Flag #9.

Edit: Its interesting, but Milenko proves exactly why pros writing books will never harm poker. For every person who reads a book and improves, there have to be at least five like Milenko who read/skim, vastly misunderstand what they have read, misapply the theories, but are filled with such confidence after a few short term victories (forgetting of course their losses), that they lose far more than they ever would have in the first place had they not read the book. It must give the illusion of beatability to a game that, for many of them, will never truly be beatable.

[arkady]

jman,

by far the best reply. cracked me up and it's just damn true.

A good friend once told me, "Anybody else, I'd say what's gonna happen to you would be a lesson to you. Only you're gonna need more than one lesson. And you're gonna get more than one lesson."

Best gimmick account ever.