NL Preflop Question

[Grasshoppa]

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I did the math by hand (posted above) and got -30. It's cool that are answers are so similar.

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I would say you did a very rough estimation of what the math would be. There are so many different types of flops to consider with non-obvious results, and the question of which flops to push with is only vaguely addressed, and yet it's crucial, especially since you have to push with some flops that are slightly negative EV. Still, you came pretty close!

[2+2 wannabe]

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(This may be a repeat post. If so I apologize.)

10 20 Blinds. You are in the Big Blind with AQ. You have plenty of chips. A tight player starting with a short stack of 300 makes it 100 to go in early position. All fold. 80 to you. He has 200 left.

You somehow are almost positive about his play. He has two tens or higher or AK. If you move in he will fold only the two tens. If you call he will always move in 200 on the flop and call if you move in. Preflop you should call, fold or move in?

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Dynasty can you please move this post to the appropriate forum.

Thank you.

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who do you think you are?

[Sponger15SB]

What? They have been moving tons of useless posts that don't have anything to do with WPT events.

This should go in the MTT forum.

[etizzle]

who said this was in a MTT?

[Sponger15SB]

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who said this was in a MTT?

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I mean mid-high NL....whatever.

[csuf_gambler]

easy push, duh

[Vincent Lepore]

I go away for a while and when I come back I see that Sklansky is up to his silly old tricks.

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You have plenty of chips.

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Now, isn't the answer obvious! This is a tournment for cripes sake!

Vince

[donny5k]

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You are calling 80 to win 330 in implied odds and are over 30% against his range (actually, far over 30%, because AA and QQ are less likely). The times where you call with the best hand but he hits a 2 or 3 outer are roughly equivalent to the times he has the best hand vs. your top pair but you hit the 2 or 3 outer. Additionally, sometimes the flop will come something like QJT and you will not pay him off.

This is a call, and it's not all that close.

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Your reasoning is flawed because we won't be flopping a hand to call with even 30% of the time (given the villain's range holding some of our cards), let alone win the pot 30% of the time. And, making loose estimates, if we flop a queen we have the best hand something like 70% of the time only, and an ace something like 70% of the time (I count 24/34 possible hands and 21/30 possible hands respectively), so using your idea of "he hits when I'm best as often as I hit when he's best" let's just say the best hand wins on the flop. Then if my estimates are even remotely close, we win the pot significantly less than .7*.3 = 21% of the time.

In my estimates I didn't include set potential so that also decreases the figure significantly as well as decreasing the amount of flops we can call on significantly (as you pointed out). I think we only win this pot a little more than 15% of the time as a guess.

I think calling and playing favorable flops (based on immediate pot odds) is better than pushing preflop though.

Your reasoning would only be correct (and clearly so) if we could see all 5 cards before deciding to put our money in.

[tpir90036]

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My initial minute of thought points towards cold calling and taking a flop. Thanks to diminishing marginal utility 100 chips is really insignificant at this level, but more significant is making the most mathmetically optical move with the focus on eliminating a tight player. I don't know if you equate tight with solid, but I'd like to get the tight player off the table in the hopes (or rather the educated gamble) that he will get replaced by some more dead money.

So either call or push. Leaning towards calling and folding unless you hit a good flop. Definitely not folding, because you want this guy off the table.

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Why would you want to waste chips in a -EV spot just trying to eliminate a tight player with only 15BBs left? This isn't like other spots where you are gambling pre-flop based on a price... we know his exact range and exactly how he is going to play it, and it all looks bad for us.

[DavidC]

Hmm...

You've written a couple of widely respected books, so I'm guessing that you're either feeling lazy or you have some other motive for posing this question.

I'm working on my reponse right now, then I'll read the thread.

Please reveal the answer, if you have it, and your motivation for asking it, in due time.

--Dave.

Edit: and by AQ, I assume that you mean AQo.
Edit: and by AK, I assume you mean AKs or AKo.
Edit: and I assume if you minraise preflop (which would be retarded) he'll push and you'll call... just making sure. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
Edit: and assume we're isolating our analysis to the EV of this particular hand