TT Hand, Play Along

[MrWookie47]

MP1 is a retard, UTG+1 is a retard, MP3 is a retard. Just another day in the retards-ville we call the internet.

Notice how betting out on the turn completely killed your action from 9's. Good thing UTG+1 is retarded enough to think his 2 pair actually matters. I still like going for a c/r on the turn.

This was a pretty good play along.

[WSOP Bound]

The more I think about this turn line I begin wondering wether I should have C/Red. Here's my line of thought so far:


Assumptions: No one is folding out of this hand at this point.


We checkraise:
(10 * (% of time that someone leads)) + (0 * (% of times it checks through)) + (20 * (% of time that it is 3-bet and we can cap))

We Lead:
(5 * (% of times it's just called)) + (15 * (% of times we are reaised and can 3-bet)) + (20 * (% of times it gets capped))



There are certainly a lot of variables that are missed here, but I think it works well enough to get a good estimate. Now the sticking point is get a good estimate of the percentage of times that each event will occur. I'm not even sure if this can be done to a level of accuracy that makes this anywhere near valid. Actually, I'm not even sure that this is worth doing since each situation would vary greatly and this isn't the kind of calcuation that you could quickly do at the table. Any thoughts?

[WSOP Bound]

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I didn't get in on any of the play along. It's too bad, because this was a nice hand for one.


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It was?
Join us next week when we discuss how to play quad aces.

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I think that there were some interesting aspects to this thread. Of particular interest to me was the discussion regarding capping or calling preflop and the discussion about wether to lead or check-raise the turn. I'm sure that these are relatively simple decisions for some, but as a newbie I was certainly interested in the discussion.

It's agreed that after the first turn decision the only way to play this hand is to jam chips in there as furiously as possible. Even a fish could get that part right [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[bozlax]

I'll dispense with the EV calculations except to say that you forgot to subtract the %(time it gets checked through) * (cost of suddenly-airborne laptop).

Here's the way I look at it, and you can do this at the table. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. Yeah, I'd like to get 2 bets out of everyone on the turn, but if it's a choice between one from everyone and none, I want to make damn sure I'm going to get one. Even with rock-solid PT-stat reads on the other players (which I don't think you really have, here), on a raggy board like this you can never be sure when an aggressor will spook and decide to take a free card. As I said in a previous post, this late in the hand is no time to START being cute.

[Aaron W.]

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Any thoughts?

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It's all about your read on UTG+1. If you think he's got enough to stay aggressive on the overcard, the preflop cap (even though capper folded, everyone else has "something"), and recognizing the fact that nobody is going to fold, the check-raise may work.

This is too scary for most players and it's hard to find opportunities for essentially a guaranteed 4 BB in a single spot. You have the second nuts and everyone is ready to pay you off. Don't be too greedy.

[bozlax]

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Notice how betting out on the turn completely killed your action from 9's.

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Notice how somebody raising before him completely killed your action from pocket queens. (By the way, if OP actually had his, "*Have seen MP3 play pocket kings and a flopped 2nd-nut flush without finding a reason to bet/raise on any street," read prior to the hand, that's gotta be the Read Of The Month.)

Players at these levels will do all kinds of silly crap. The player with the 9 could have decided to scratch his ass before he made a play on the turn and gotten so lost trying to find it that he timed out! There's no way to be SURE he's going to bet, and the only thing more -EV here than failing to trap the field for 2 bets is failing to get even one bet out of them.

[Fantam]

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Players at these levels will do all kinds of silly crap. The player with the 9 could have decided to scratch his ass before he made a play on the turn and gotten so lost trying to find it that he timed out! There's no way to be SURE he's going to bet, and the only thing more -EV here than failing to trap the field for 2 bets is failing to get even one bet out of them.

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I understand the reasons given for not check/raising the turn, but I think that its also worthwhile to consider how the other players in the hand might view you.

I am sure that I missed out on a similar opportunity to check/raise on the turn recently, because one of the two players in the hand was quite laggish and the other player had already bet the flop.

I think I had a pretty tight image at the table, and as soon as I "woke up" with a bet on the turn, the one player folded and the lag called down.

[bozlax]

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Players at these levels will do all kinds of silly crap. The player with the 9 could have decided to scratch his ass before he made a play on the turn and gotten so lost trying to find it that he timed out! There's no way to be SURE he's going to bet, and the only thing more -EV here than failing to trap the field for 2 bets is failing to get even one bet out of them.

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I understand the reasons given for not check/raising the turn, but I think that its also worthwhile to consider how the other players in the hand might view you.

I am sure that I missed out on a similar opportunity to check/raise on the turn recently, because one of the two players in the hand was quite laggish and the other player had already bet the flop.

I think I had a pretty tight image at the table, and as soon as I "woke up" with a bet on the turn, the one player folded and the lag called down.

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Different situation. Our flop bettor, here, was loose-passive-passive, IIRC.

The biggest guppy in the pond is able to recognize that his top pair just became second pair and decide to just try to get to showdown in a huge pot.