AA on the BB

[DougOzzzz]

Hand 1: 34.5165 % [ 00.34 00.00 ] { AA }
Hand 2: 08.1654 % [ 00.07 00.01 ] { random }
Hand 3: 08.1792 % [ 00.07 00.01 ] { random }
Hand 4: 08.2546 % [ 00.07 00.01 ] { random }
Hand 5: 08.2019 % [ 00.07 00.01 ] { random }
Hand 6: 08.1870 % [ 00.07 00.01 ] { random }
Hand 7: 08.1491 % [ 00.07 00.01 ] { random }
Hand 8: 08.1429 % [ 00.07 00.01 ] { random }
Hand 9: 08.2033 % [ 00.07 00.01 ] { random }

[Pyromaniac]

That only works if the other 8 hands are, in fact, random, eh? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Most folks are approaching this question (granted, it's a crazy/hypothetical question) as if it said "everyone pushes in without looking at their hole cards"...

My thought is: What was UTG holding that would make him decide to go all-in as the first person to act on this round?

One answer (in white): <font color="white"> The other two Aces. Which means that, at best, we'll chop the pot. Assuming that we don't lose it to one of the other 7 players (and assuming neither of us catches the nut flush). </font>

[DougOzzzz]

It doesn't make sense to limit your opponent's possible holdings when their play is completely illogical.

By the way, even if you knew someone else had AA, your pot equity would be about 15%. Most people here would elect to fold given this information - but most people here are probably not good enough to justify this fold.

[Pyromaniac]

Are they all equally illogical, though? Isn't the first player's move just a really bad overbet? (No explanations for all the players between him and us, though, lol)

I'm new here, so I don't quite follow [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] When you say "most people here are probably not good enough to justify the fold", do you mean that better players could make up the difference on later hands...but that poorer players had better take the gamble and get their money in here, while they can? Or do you mean that most people here would fold if they had that information, but they wouldn't really understand why they were folding?

[DougOzzzz]

[ QUOTE ]
Are they all equally illogical, though? Isn't the first player's move just a really bad overbet? (No explanations for all the players between him and us, though, lol)

I'm new here, so I don't quite follow [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] When you say "most people here are probably not good enough to justify the fold", do you mean that better players could make up the difference on later hands...but that poorer players had better take the gamble and get their money in here, while they can? Or do you mean that most people here would fold if they had that information, but they wouldn't really understand why they were folding?

[/ QUOTE ]

I mean that most people here aren't skilled enough to expect a better chance to increase their chip count by a factor of 4.5 (if the pot is split) or 9 if they fold. Only if you are a well above average player at the WSOP ME would a fold be justified in this situation.

[ckff93]

You would only have 90,000 in Chips even if you won. You'd be short stacked again by day 2.

[Black Aces 518]

Look at it like this. If when you signed up for the main event, imagine they gave you this proposition. You can take your 10,000 stack. Or, you can spin a wheel that is verified fair. 3 of the spots say 100,000. 7 say 0. You get the chips that correspond with what you spin. If you are there for anything other than to say "Hey, I played the WSOP" you better spin the wheel. The chip leaders after day 1 were around 150,000. You will be in such a good position and have greatly increased your chances of cashing and placing well.

Or, imagine player 1 goes allin, 7 players call. The SB says allin and the other players reflexively muck immediately. Their cards are irretrievable. You're in the BB with AK. The SB flips up KK, thinking it's over. So you can push in your stack of 10K. If you lose, you're out. Win, you have 100K. Do you call?

I think these examples illustrate without the divisive controversy of the idea of folding AA preflop.

[DougOzzzz]

[ QUOTE ]
You would only have 90,000 in Chips even if you won. You'd be short stacked again by day 2.

[/ QUOTE ]

First - Your chip stack would be about average at the end of day 2 (569 players were remaining with an average of 100K chips or so after day 2)

Second - This is irrelevant. If you're short stacked at 90K, then you're EXTREMELY short stacked at 10K. Regardless, 90K = 9*10K. And you're either the best poker player in the world or a fool if you believe you'll have a better chance of increasing your chip stack by a factor of 9 by folding this hand.

[ckff93]

Your math is terrible.

[starbits]

[ QUOTE ]
In general, you want to mazimize the EV of all gambling decisions. It does not matter that it is the exact same situation each time, just that you maximize EV over multiple situations.

There are other factors to consider in tournaments, but that doesn't seem to be your point. I have never seen this in a cash game at my friend Joe's house either, so does this mean pot odds would be invalid if it happened there?

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually the WSOP was exactly my point. In the poll above I voted to go all in for a cash game like most everybody else. At the final table I fold to move into 2nd place money.

I agree with you that maximizing EV in poker situations is the the way to go. However in the third situation first day WSOP I disagree with you that pot odds gives you the correct EV. When you enter the WSOP you are wagering $10,000 to win first place, lets say $5,000,000 to make the math easy. Lets say when you sit down at the table you have 1 chance in 5000 of winning. You have a value in the final pot of $5,000,000 * 1/5000 = $1000. When you fold AA in the BB you have lost the BB amount, but the value number is essentially unchanged.

If you go all in you have a 30% chance of winning so your value is $5,000,000 * 0.30 * CofW (chance of winning the WSOP). In order to have the same value as folding your chance of winning the WSOP must increase to 1/1500. A 3 fold increase and that is when you win. However you also lose 70% of the time so the equation becomes

$5,000,000 * 0.30 * CofW - $10,000 * 0.70 = EV

For CofW = 1/1500 EV = -$6000
= 1/500 EV = -$4000
= 1/250 Ev = -$1000
= 1/200 EV = +$500

So unless you expect your chances of winning the WSOP to increase from 1/5000 to better than 1/200 it is not a positive EV move to call this bet.

Starbits