looking for the muck? can i find it? should i?

[Rick Nebiolo]

mike,

The friend with the "sensible approach" to poker I told you about in our recent emails took a quick look at the lead post. He normally doesn't go near computers so, to set the proper mood, I cranked up "someone sh_t in the pool again" on the jukebox.

He thought he would probably call in your spot. Then he went to Hollywood Park. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

~ Rick

[Rick Nebiolo]

[ QUOTE ]
You sure you grew up with John Cole?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, I first met John in college; he lived in the dorm suite downstairs from me my sophomore year. And I didn't grow up until a few years ago. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Regards,

~ Rick

[mike l.]

"to set the proper mood, I cranked up "someone sh_t in the pool again" on the jukebox."

youre a sick man

[KidPokerX]

A call in this situation would not be wrong but folding 100% of the time here would be. You are getting roughly 18:1 here. If you are wrong 90% of the time (or for simplicity, 90 times out of 100), you would expect to lose 90 BB's from those 90 times you were wrong and lost that final BB, but gain 180 BB's (10 times x 18 BB) from the 10 times you were correct.
The pot is huge so you must expect players to make any necessary move to collect this pot - even if that means check-raising the turn with an overpair or 87 for a lower two pair.
You must consider your odds that you may be good, especially in such large pots, to the pot. With 18:1 odds, I'd stop thinking about the lobster dinners and instead consider the $1400 pot that I may be getting correct odds to call.
Think long term.

[Net Warrior]

[ QUOTE ]
"what does it mean?"

You sure you grew up with John Cole?

A paroxym is a sudden or violent outburst of emotion.

[/ QUOTE ]


...err, it's spelled paroxysm [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Lawrence Ng]

[ QUOTE ]
Shouldn't we strive to make the right play when it's the right play and to deal with the invevitable disappointments of poker as a game of incomplete information?

[/ QUOTE ]

It's more so the fact that if he makes the incorrect decision that it will affect his short term judgement in the game thus diminishing his state of mind to properly play. Henceforth I think a call here is not only for his physchological well being, but for being able to keep second guessing away.

Lawrence

[felson]

Hi Mike, could you share your play and the results with us?

[mike l.]

i mucked on the end certain i was beat and proud of my laydown right up to the second where sb flipped over 8h7x for turned two pair and utg tapped the table and mucked.

so i let someone who was drawing dead on the flop take down a $1600 pot i had built.

[felson]

oof. sorry to bring back the memory.

on the other hand, it appears that bruiser owes j.a. sucker a few dinners. i hear that delmonico is nice.

[oreogod]

I think his play makes since if he has:

(in order of most possible)
1.two pair, lower or if he hit the turn for it
2.Set
3.Flush.

But I think a set and flush overcall the turn (set would probably bet out). Why check raise to shut out the field, unless u have a weaker hand? I dont think he would semi bluff this turn without something decent, Im pretty sure he knows he will get a call in one or two spots for sure.

I call the river. Going by the action, I think u are have more than a 5-10 percent chance of being good here. Im not convinced u are beat. You can beat two pair, its probably one of his holdings, you have to call. I think a set and flush play the turn differently (anybody agree?). AA would play the hand differently as well.