Live $500 Buy-In NL Hand

[PrayingMantis]

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No, you are clear. Your point is well taken.

If the description is right, and everyone folds 77, 66, 55 and hands you are very happy to get called by, then sure, 88 is the same as 22.

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OK, so now we see it the same way. However, here comes another problematic aspect of this kind of thinking about an UTG shove.

You say:

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You could use the fact that you are only going to get called by TT-AA, and AK AQ if you push UTG, and be shoving lots of hands. Even though you have to dodge a lot of hands, this criteria for calling UTG all ins may encourage you to shove lots of hands here. With an 8xBB stack, I'm going to war for those blinds.

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However, I'd argue that this is pretty much the wrong approach to this situation. Pushing from UTG with a wide range of hands on this *tight* table, is -EV move, IMO, with a risk that does not worth the reward. In such a table, a smaller raise makes much more sense (and a smaller raise can actually be profitable with a wide range of hands, as opposed to a push). The reason is, that there are 9 players to act behind you - much too many in order for you to not take in calculation the probability of a monster or very big hand behind. That's why pushing from this position with a lot of hand seems like a mistake (a marginal one, but still an EV mistake).

The correct move with a hand like 88 should not be too far, that's how I see it, from the correct move with many other hands here. However, pushing with 88 is probably +EV, but not hugely so, and with a rather big down-side. That's why I don't think folding this in this spot is a big mistake.

The good things about raising some "standard" amount with 88 here rather than pushing, is that it does leave you a room to playing and deciding, whether you should call a reraise or not if it comes (depending on few criteria: position of re-raiser, stack, image, etc). A smaller raise could also lead to someone only calling (maybe correctly so, but it doesn't necessarily matters here, IMO, on this tight table), which will lead to a post-flop situation, where you can again, use judgemet and outplay your opponent in some cases (sure the stacks are short, but there is still room for play, IMO).

When you push from this position, with this stack and hand, - you have nothing left to do other than praying. There are many situations in tournaments where all you have to do is pray, but since pushing in this spot is not significantly +EV to begin with, I can't see why it is such an automatic move here like so many say.

[MLG]

you can limp with the plan of calling any raise behind you and pushing on any flop. if you think it will get raised behind you I don't think its an awful play, although I'm with Strassa on just pushing.

[Tosh]

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If the description is right, and everyone folds 77, 66, 55 and hands you are very happy to get called by, then sure, 88 is the same as 22.

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Unless I'm missing something, how is 88 the same as 22? 88 has higher equity against all of 99-AA and AK, no?

[Tosh]

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I am pushing this for sure.

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Hi Tosh,

I respect your play alot and think it's likely that you have more tournament experience than me (I don't play many) so could you back this up with reasoning please?

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Mark, to be fair I couldn't offer any actual analysis on top of what Jason has said RE the original push option.

I just feel that even tight tables a range of 99-AA and AK is too narrow, at least for every player. I don't see tables this tight very often, if ever, so I think that you are getting called by these weaker hands more often than you may think.

Maybe there is a better option than pushing, but IMO folding is all kinds of wrong.

[MarkD]

Not that they matter but here is what happened. I pushed all-in and was called by JJ. I got a good board but failed to outdraw and was busted.

Afterwards I wondered if I cost myself an opportunity to build chips by waiting until late position to start stealing blinds and getting really agressive. Judging by this thread I realize that it's not an easy spot so I'm glad about that as this hand had me confused.

At this point I think that pushing all in or raising to T4.5k (a play I never considered before) are the right plays. I'm not sure how I feel about the T4.5k raise - I would like to explore this a bit more as it seems like an interesting play.

If I see the flop in this hand I go bust no matter what.

[joeboe2001]

I have read most of the posts, but not the results. Before doing so, I want to advocate calling. (oh no, you are never supposed to call in holdem!!!)

I would call a small raise or fold to a large one when it comes back to me. If I don't get my set on the flop, I fold to any bet if there is an overcard or a pair, check if there is no bet. Same on 4th street and river, with a small raise at the end if everyone is still checking.

[joeboe2001]

Exactly why I would not push. I don't know about the raise--seems you are just assuming more risk than you need to if everyone is playing as tightly as you say.

[MarkD]

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Exactly why I would not push.

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I'm sorry but I think using the results of the hand as justification for a play is just plain old bad poker.

[kuro]

The key is looking at the tourney as a whole and not just an utg all-in with 88. You're short stacked, pretty far out of the money, and at a table with good players. You absolutely are going to have to get lucky and win some races, give some bad beats, or get hit really hard by the deck. So take your stand now and gamble it up when you have enough chips that you won't automatically get called by the bb and where a double up would make a significant difference in your chances of making the money. The range of hands that you should be pushing here includes quite a few worse that 88.

[hurlyburly]

I got to this thread late but it is a really good one.

I don't think at this stage (still way out of the money and <10BB UTG) you should be happy about catching the blinds here. My initial thought is min-raise and hope for a re-raise and lightning to strike you on the board. These are the kind of situations that I like to get a nice raise war going with. This would be an easy laydown if you had average chips, but you're dying a slow death now and need to adjust.

Look at it this way, you currently have almost no shot to make the money. If you win the blinds and antes you have: (small chance) + 1 free rotation at blinds. After your turn at the blinds you have T17k again. If your goal is to only win the blinds by pushing, then you are better off folding, because if your goal is to find a better spot 14k isn't much worse than 17k (doubling up on both puts you smack dab in the middle) and you shouldn't risk your chips here.

I would prefer a showdown here with 1 or hopefully 2 callers. By raising 4k you still have some FE available if you get a strong late read, or you can push and guarantee a chance to double up. Doubling up here and following up with some outrageously aggressive blind defense will probably scare the hell out of everyone. Granted you will look like a maniac for a while if you succeed, you'll be going back to your original playstyle after that, so looking like a maniac will help.

Personally I think a 4k raise would look fishy enough with your stacksize to make JJ think about laying down. That's a 'crying for a call' raise and obvious to anyone who is paying attention.

Just my 2 cents.