Interesting No Limit Question

[mmbt0ne]

Ok Squirrel, here's the breakdown for you:

Basically, $700 makes the pot odds too great for the flush card to draw, 2.57:1 on the pot, with a 35:9 shot at best of winning the hand. So we'll guess he folds, and, assuming that your other opponent ALSO has a flush draw with his straight, he's 5:1 against hitting it (7 out of 42 cards beat you, the other 35 split). So, you're risking $700 to win $450(half of the original pot) with 5:1 odds on winning it, looks +EV to me.

[Squirrel]

You guys are willing to risk your tournament life for 450 chips is beyond me.

[TheGrifter]

[ QUOTE ]
The fact that it isn't likely is irrelevant.

The fact that it is possible is EXTREMELY relevant.

I don't think you understand how traumatic being freerolled would be here, even if it isn't that likely.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you assume that the flush draw includes the jack of diamonds 10% of the time (generous) and when your opponent is freerolling he scoops the pot 20% of the time, then you're concerned about a scenario that will occur approximately 2% of the time.

I doubt that this is what David is getting at.

[37offsuit]

You bet big to force the flush out and find out that they both fold because you knocked out the Ad2d, and the KQ trying to see the river cheap with what might be the best hand responds to the information he was looking for with this small bet. Equally likely scenario.

If you're that afraid of someone free rolling, call the 200 which will enduce the guy after you to call if he is on the flush draw. That makes the pot 1300. If you're looking at a split, you're getting 500 to 200 on your call, 2 1/2 to 1. If the river blanks push. If the river pairs the board or puts the 3rd flush card out, play accordingly.

[Squirrel]

This bet was made by a good player.

This bet was more than likely designed to initiate a horrible raise by the middle player and all of you seem happy to oblige.

[Squirrel]

They will argue that, and they are wrong.

[eh923]

The 10% chance mentioned was that the guy was holding the Jd w/ another diamond. As you said, the draw will hit about 20% of the time.

[eh923]

For my sanity and for the sanity of others, please confirm that you realize the J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] is only dangerous when the other hold card is also a diamond.

[Squirrel]

10 Percent (which is too low by the way) assumes random card distribution. The fact that he is playing the hand should tell you it's much higher than that.

[Squirrel]

If the flush draw that you're trying so hard to make fold includes the Jd, I'm sure he won't mind the short odds you're offering. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]