Stopping Bluffs

[jaytorr]

He's wrong. If your opponent never bluffs, it would be the same as your opponent bluffing 50% of the time. Your EV on that street is 0 in both cases.

If your opponent bluffs more than 50% of the time, it is better for you than your opponent never bluffing, since now you have +EV.

Back to the original question, let's say before any bets are made pot = 8. If your opponent bluffs 10% of the time, it doesn't make a difference whether you call or fold. His EV = +0.8 . If he bluffs 1/3 of the time, you will always call, and his EV = +0.33. If he bluffs 1/24 of the time, his EV would be 1/24*8 = +0.33.

So you would prefer him bluffing <4% for this pot size.

[TimTimSalabim]

I think the spirit of this question is to get people to realize that getting him to bluff less is probably bad, because if you move him down from his current 33% to say 20%, you've only made things worse by moving him closer to the optimal bluffing %. If you're going to get him to bluff less, you need to get him all the way down to something really small, my guess is that the answer would be 3% or less.

[J_V]

So for a 10 bb pot, my answer would be between 6.66% and 7.5%.

[J_V]

Or I'm just an idiot. I see your point now. I would like to see the math between bluffing 100% of the time and never bluffing. Can someone do that? I don't really know how.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the spirit of this question is to get people to realize that getting him to bluff less is probably bad, because ... you've only made things worse by moving him closer to the optimal bluffing %.

[/ QUOTE ]

Bingo. That's what I thought as well. In real life, if a guy bluffs too much, it's unlikely that you'll back him off enough to actually make it more profitable for you.

[tolbiny]

"If he never bluffs, I think his error is much bigger"

if you always intend to call him, then him never bluffing is the best play

[MarkD]

Where is this type of stuff discussed?

I took the one engineering stats course required. At the time I wasn't into gambling or stats, but I do know that this type of stuff was never discussed. Is there a decent book I could grab with this type of probability problems discussed?

Is this a book that would give me the background to properly analyze and solve these problems?

[David Sklansky]

Yes of course the idea behind the question was that players who make moves like grabbing their chips to stop a bluff from players who bluff too much, had better be sure that their move works well over 95% of the time.

[Piz0wn0reD!!!!!!]

The real answer is to put on your x-ray vision gogles on at the river. Thats +EV.

[Mason Malmuth]

Hi Everyone:

In the arrogance department I see very little difference between David Sklansky and Andrew Prock. But in another area I do see a difference. I'll let others elaborate.

Best wishes,
Mason