NFL betting - tips?

[sublime]

I'm not so sure about this one. To use your analogy....if you miss 3 flush draws in a row and that puts you on tilt, negaitvely affecting your game, then you need to get up and leave for a while. Now obviously, whether this carries over to sports betting is another discussion.

JW-

If you read all of my posts in this thread you will see that I mentioned if a prolonged (i cant belive i am calling 3 games prolonged) losing streak affects your judgement you should back off (ie tilt). However if it doesnt and you can, with a clear head, judge a situation +EV, you should still bet it.

I am not a handicapper, but do make money on sports betting and I can assure you some of the suggestions in this thread are downright ridiculous.

[jwvdcw]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not so sure about this one. To use your analogy....if you miss 3 flush draws in a row and that puts you on tilt, negaitvely affecting your game, then you need to get up and leave for a while. Now obviously, whether this carries over to sports betting is another discussion.

JW-

If you read all of my posts in this thread you will see that I mentioned if a prolonged (i cant belive i am calling 3 games prolonged) losing streak affects your judgement you should back off (ie tilt). However if it doesnt and you can, with a clear head, judge a situation +EV, you should still bet it.

I am not a handicapper, but do make money on sports betting and I can assure you some of the suggestions in this thread are downright ridiculous.

[/ QUOTE ]

I already argued with his suggestion of betting an odd number of games, and he has actually come around a bit on that....but I still totally agree with him here. Too often people will chase action if they lose a bunch. Often times people will try to bet huge on MNF to make up for a bad weekend. I think this is terrible strategy. Many will claim that they don't do this, but I think it can even be subconscious. All in all, I see nothing wrong with taking a break for a few days if you're on a losing streak, and I can't really see how anyone can argue with that.

[Jman28]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm not so sure about this one. To use your analogy....if you miss 3 flush draws in a row and that puts you on tilt, negaitvely affecting your game, then you need to get up and leave for a while. Now obviously, whether this carries over to sports betting is another discussion.

JW-

If you read all of my posts in this thread you will see that I mentioned if a prolonged (i cant belive i am calling 3 games prolonged) losing streak affects your judgement you should back off (ie tilt). However if it doesnt and you can, with a clear head, judge a situation +EV, you should still bet it.

I am not a handicapper, but do make money on sports betting and I can assure you some of the suggestions in this thread are downright ridiculous.

[/ QUOTE ]

I already argued with his suggestion of betting an odd number of games, and he has actually come around a bit on that....but I still totally agree with him here. Too often people will chase action if they lose a bunch. Often times people will try to bet huge on MNF to make up for a bad weekend. I think this is terrible strategy. Many will claim that they don't do this, but I think it can even be subconscious. All in all, I see nothing wrong with taking a break for a few days if you're on a losing streak, and I can't really see how anyone can argue with that.

[/ QUOTE ]

If I gave you a fair 6 sided die (is that how you spell it?) and gave you $10 for every even number you rolled, and took $8 for every odd you rolled, and I offer this only 5 times a week... would you not take the 4th and 5th after losing the first 3 of one week?

Assuming no emotions get involved with picking winners, this is the same as passing up an edge in football after 3 losses.

[Jimbo]

[ QUOTE ]
If I gave you a fair 6 sided die (is that how you spell it?) and gave you $10 for every even number you rolled, and took $8 for every odd you rolled, and I offer this only 5 times a week... would you not take the 4th and 5th after losing the first 3 of one week?

Assuming no emotions get involved with picking winners, this is the same as passing up an edge in football after 3 losses

[/ QUOTE ]

Thank-you Jman for bringing some additional reason to this subject.

Jimbo

[sublime]

Thank-you Jman for bringing some additional reason to this subject.

I fear it may be to late [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[Vaughn]

I have had a lot of success betting heavy favorites on the moneyline in parlays (3-6 teams). I only bet 5-10% of my bankroll when I do this. There's not much opportunity this weekend though. I'm playing St.Louis, Minnesota and Kansas City (as a dog) in my parlay. Around week 5 you'll start to find the superior teams, and there will be more selection. I only play for fun, although it certainly is fun winning. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Vaughn