Party 3/6: Summoning my inner calling station....

[Tosh]

Add to what Stellarwind has said, that BB is also more likely to raise than call when he plays the hand; and no not just if he has trips as he will be at least somewhat aware of a shutting players out play. You now end up paying 2 bets to see a turn when your hand doesn't even warrant 1. Not to mention that you could be drawing at runner runner and might lose when you hit a jack or ten.

[joker122]

[ QUOTE ]
He's at least as dangerous as your other two opponents.


[/ QUOTE ]

Wrong. How can you say this?

[joker122]

[ QUOTE ]
Add to what Stellarwind has said, that BB is also more likely to raise than call when he plays the hand

[/ QUOTE ]

But I think his most likely action is to FOLD. The chances he has trips are very small, and he's folding almost everything else if he is in fact a decent player.

[StellarWind]

[ QUOTE ]
Wrong. How can you say this?

[/ QUOTE ]
You keep saying he is harmless without supplying any reason. He has a free play hand and he is in first position:

1. Most likely person to have a seven before the flop.

2. Most likely person to have a two before the flop.

3. Most likely person to check a small pair.

4. Most likely person to checkraise (with a wide range of hands).

Do you realize how bad it is to be checkraised? I estimate this hand has EV = 0.4 SB if you check. Despite the extra SB invested, the checkraise drops the hand's EV to 0 because the hand should be folded without seeing the turn. That's a loss of 1.4 SB.

Another big negative that has not been mentioned is the bet damages your implied odds when you make your hand on the turn. It forces out hands that might have paid you off (often by bluffing) and prevents a weaker hand from betting the turn for you.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

i'm new to this thread, but for what my opinion is worth:

i personally wouldn't bet the flop here against 3 opponents. let's say you fold out 1 player. you fire away on the turn and you lose another player. on the river you're still usually left with one other player with J high so you gotta bet again to win... only to get called down by pocket fives or something. these triple barrel bluffs are hard to pull off.

you can argue to bet the flop, clean up your outs, and take a free look at the turn and see a river card, but in such a tiny pot, i'm not quite sure it'd be worth it.

also... if there was a diamond on the board, i wouldn't mind the flop bet as much, or if you had a better looking backdoor straight draw, but the diamond is much more important.

having read the hand the first time, i think its very unlikely the dude has a 7 because checkraising shutting out the field is stupid, so a medium sized pocket pair seems more likely, BUT, he doesn't have to have a seven or KJ, KT, QT, QJ, AT, or AJ very often to totally screw you over.

so calling the checkraise is okay at best, not terrible to fold, but if you really think he has a medium pocketpair then fine.

if that's the case, not raising the river is absolutely terrible and defeats the purpose of being in the hand at all.

[joker122]

[ QUOTE ]
1. Most likely person to have a seven before the flop.

2. Most likely person to have a two before the flop.

3. Most likely person to check a small pair.

4. Most likely person to checkraise (with a wide range of hands).

[/ QUOTE ]


But this doesn't mean he's likely to hold any of these.