$10+$1 Rebuy AK hand - Page 7

durron597 · #61 07-20-2005, 07:22 PM

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Judging from the tone of your posts, I would have to assume that Villain had a boat. Obviously you haven't been basing your analysis on this knowledge, but do you think that I have made reasonable points? I would be inclined to believe that this move by the Villain could very well be making a pure bluff a higher percentage of the time then making a pretty damn good play (or just a ridiculously ignorant) by a slowplayed set/KJ,

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I think you've made excellent points. The reason why I posted this thread is that I'm trying to assess the probability that he has either the bluff or the monster. I still don't think we've established a consensus on this.

Lloyd · #62 07-20-2005, 07:45 PM

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Judging from the tone of your posts, I would have to assume that Villain had a boat. Obviously you haven't been basing your analysis on this knowledge, but do you think that I have made reasonable points? I would be inclined to believe that this move by the Villain could very well be making a pure bluff a higher percentage of the time then making a pretty damn good play (or just a ridiculously ignorant) by a slowplayed set/KJ,

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I think you've made excellent points. The reason why I posted this thread is that I'm trying to assess the probability that he has either the bluff or the monster. I still don't think we've established a consensus on this.

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There's never going to be a consensus on this, nor should there be. And although I'm in the "call the river" camp it's by no means a certainty he's on a bluff. All we can do is put him on a range of hands - some of which we're behind, some of which we're ahead - and make our best guess. I think we're ahead more often then not so I'd make the call. If I bust out I'll be bummed but I think it's the right decision long term.

SossMan · #63 07-20-2005, 08:19 PM

nobody has mentioned it, but we're getting 1.5:1 here on the call. The all in has to be weighted towards more of a bluff than a sophisticated double out-think move w/ a hand like 22 or KJ.
This river push is really suspicious. I bet he puts us on not having a king and therefore, not being able to call, so he could have a pretty wide range of hands. Throw in the donk factor (betting his AJ for value) and I think that we have a pretty easy call.
If he cought the perfect river card to be able to outplay us, good for him. There's too much oddness to this push to let AK go there, methinks.

Lloyd · #64 07-20-2005, 08:21 PM

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nobody has mentioned it, but we're getting 1.5:1 here on the call. The all in has to be weighted towards more of a bluff than a sophisticated double out-think move w/ a hand like 22 or KJ.
This river push is really suspicious. I bet he puts us on not having a king and therefore, not being able to call, so he could have a pretty wide range of hands. Throw in the donk factor (betting his AJ for value) and I think that we have a pretty easy call.
If he cought the perfect river card to be able to outplay us, good for him. There's too much oddness to this push to let AK go there, methinks.

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And there it has been said. Post closed for discussion. Thank you Mr. Sossman.

durron597 · #65 07-20-2005, 08:33 PM

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If he cought the perfect river card to be able to outplay us, good for him. There's too much oddness to this push to let AK go there, methinks.

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If the river was an offsuit 3 do you still call?

GoldenHorde · #66 07-20-2005, 10:09 PM

I was actually the Hero in this hand and I called rather quickly. My immediate thought was that it wasn't a flopped set because if he was willing to slow play it all the way to the river he makes a small extracting raise not a huge push, unless he can put me on AK which I think is near impossible.

I expected villain to flip over a small to medium pocket pair and he did......5's

durron597 · #67 07-20-2005, 11:25 PM

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I was actually the Hero in this hand and I called rather quickly. My immediate thought was that it wasn't a flopped set because if he was willing to slow play it all the way to the river he makes a small extracting raise not a huge push, unless he can put me on AK which I think is near impossible.

I expected villain to flip over a small to medium pocket pair and he did......5's

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I posted the hand because as we were discussing this in IM we agreed that you could only beat a bluff, and I wanted to see if the forum thought that he's bluffing often enough in this spot to make the call. So apparently we were both right originally and this is a must call.