$30+3 - Very difficult bubble hand

[Degen]

lol i consider myself strong in math but that went way over my head...it is definately not a fold...its either a call or a push...i think calling is a horrible move but it can be argued for.

one thing is for certain, there is more than one right way to play these tourneys and win. i'm sure somebody could call that all the time and somebody else could push it all the time...and they both could win.


i'm done with this one...see you in another thread [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]


Degen

[Scuba Chuck]

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lol i consider myself strong in math but that went way over my head...

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So you don't think that Prize Strucutre Analysis ($EV) is the math the works best for making decisions? You're just going to shoot from the hip? If shooting from the hip is your style of play and subsequent advice, I'd begin to caution you on being so adamant in your opinions on this forum.

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i'm done with this one...see you in another thread

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Man, even I can admit when I'm wrong...

[Degen]

"So you don't think that Prize Strucutre Analysis ($EV) is the math the works best for making decisions?"

I'm sure its a good tool. I've not gotten too far into it yet, when i decide to take the next step (55's, 109's etc) i'll add this tool to my game i'm sure.


though i must say, i like guys like you at my table. nobody is easier to steal blinds from that a bean counter with his ICM open.


Degen

[Scuba Chuck]

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though i must say, i like guys like you at my table. nobody is easier to steal blinds from that a bean counter with his ICM open.

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lol, you don't get it.

In return then, I like guys like you, who choose not to learn the game, including the math part, and make bad decisions. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Scuba

[adanthar]

My gut says this is a push but it may be a call - I think I would go by how likely BB is to overcall if I call (if he folds every time, I'd be more likely to push.) This, however, is because with 3200 chips I'm more likely to take first than the ICM says.

I would never fold here.

[fnord_too]

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Hand range is something like AJ+, 77+, KQs when he calls.
AKo is a 49% dog to the hand range above


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I get

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Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

133,559,712 games 0.219 secs 609,861,698 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 52.6631 % [ 00.46 00.06 ] { AcKd }
Hand 2: 47.3369 % [ 00.41 00.06 ] { AA-77, AKs-AJs, KQs, AKo-AJo }


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I didn't check any of the other math (since this was easy to check and I'm lazy). I don't think I buy your assumptions. I'm not saying I am correct, but I have not been convinced that I am incorrect.

[utmt40]

Just say "Not enough, I'm all-in!"

[pooh74]

dunno if this has been mentioned...but
1. call- then If BB comes along, push/call flop regardless

2. call- if BB folds, play the hand like your life is on the line...fold to bet on missed flop/check down...play weak IOW(800 left if you fold...great shape to squeak itm)

This is how 'd i play it...i think by only asking "what would you do" leaves out the branches in the analysis of "call, then what would you do if, 1. and 2."

[Scuba Chuck]

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but I have not been convinced that I am incorrect.


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No it looks like you're correct. I reran this through pokerstove, and I cannot for the life of me figure out why I came out with different numbers...

Edit: just figured it out, I forgot to include AJ in the hand range.

[valenzuela]

A different point of view does UTG wants to call..lets see this from his point fo view if the math tells us its wrong for him to call then pushing its the best move.