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#1
10-31-2005, 07:10 PM
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You probably have figured this, but FWIW
I am calcing this in my head, but I think this is a -3.3s.d. event for a 1.5/18 player in 40k hands.
So as with any event of course it is possible it is variance, but it is pretty unlucky if it is so. Of course this month sample is not random as you have selected your worst month so this stats is not as meaningful as many people would like it to be. Nevertheless, being over 1100 BB below expectation is pretty big swing. Seems like as good a time as any to evaluate some plays. Would be interesting to run the sim to see how many players out of 1000 1.5/18 players would experience this bad a swing in 500k hands. 
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#3
10-31-2005, 07:27 PM
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Re: minus 581 bets.
[ QUOTE ]
so you're up overall? you're up 500+ bets? umm.. [/ QUOTE ] Yes. So you could say this really is all pretty stupid. It's just kinda crazy how much I'm down on one site. People talk about such huge swings beeing next to impossible...well...I pretty much proved they're not eh? but still I've lost the last 7 of 8 days overall. Blegh. Getting a little annoying.
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#4
10-31-2005, 07:34 PM
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Re: minus 581 bets.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] so you're up overall? you're up 500+ bets? umm.. [/ QUOTE ] Yes. So you could say this really is all pretty stupid. It's just kinda crazy how much I'm down on one site. People talk about such huge swings beeing next to impossible...well...I pretty much proved they're not eh? but still I've lost the last 7 of 8 days overall. Blegh. Getting a little annoying. [/ QUOTE ] Kind of sounds like doubts are creeping in (not in your game but of the site). And I can't see this big a swing being play related. After so many hands played and practiced, your skill level, PT notes + HUD, a lot of your play is second nature with that VPIP. You're either running into big hands or getting drawn out (both or had 1 huge tilt induced session, done that when I was drunk and didn't remember). That's an insane number, to me it's almost unbelievable for a player of your caliber. It's Oct 31st not April 1st. Maybe this is a belated joke
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#5
10-31-2005, 07:37 PM
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Re: minus 581 bets.
[ QUOTE ]
Maybe this is a belated joke [/ QUOTE ] I promise this is no joke.
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#6
10-31-2005, 08:31 PM
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Re: minus 581 bets.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] so you're up overall? you're up 500+ bets? umm.. [/ QUOTE ] Yes. So you could say this really is all pretty stupid. It's just kinda crazy how much I'm down on one site. People talk about such huge swings beeing next to impossible...well...I pretty much proved they're not eh? but still I've lost the last 7 of 8 days overall. Blegh. Getting a little annoying. [/ QUOTE ] Kind of sounds like doubts are creeping in (not in your game but of the site). And I can't see this big a swing being play related. After so many hands played and practiced, your skill level, PT notes + HUD, a lot of your play is second nature with that VPIP. You're either running into big hands or getting drawn out (both or had 1 huge tilt induced session, done that when I was drunk and didn't remember). That's an insane number, to me it's almost unbelievable for a player of your caliber. It's Oct 31st not April 1st. Maybe this is a belated joke [/ QUOTE ] It's just a big statistical anomoly that shows that even a great player can have a downswing in the 600 big bet range.
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#7
10-31-2005, 08:44 PM
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Re: minus 581 bets.
[ QUOTE ]
It's just a big statistical anomoly that shows that even a great player can have a downswing in the 600 big bet range. [/ QUOTE ] I don't think it shows that at all.
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#8
11-09-2005, 07:58 PM
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Re: minus 581 bets.
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] so you're up overall? you're up 500+ bets? umm.. [/ QUOTE ] Yes. So you could say this really is all pretty stupid. It's just kinda crazy how much I'm down on one site. People talk about such huge swings beeing next to impossible...well...I pretty much proved they're not eh? but still I've lost the last 7 of 8 days overall. Blegh. Getting a little annoying. [/ QUOTE ] Yeah, it can get annoying when weird stuff like this happens. When I first moved up to 10/20 I hit a pretty big downswing... but it was some 10/20 and some 5/10 over the course of 30kish hands. If you look at the 30k hands as a whole, lots of ups and downs but nothing crazy. When you filter it by limit all the 10/20 hands were downswings and the 5/10 hands were upswings, which leaves me with this insane looking -400 BB slide at 10/20. It can kinda mess with your mind after awhile, if I'd played 10/20 on 5/10 days and vice-versa it would have been a pretty nice run...but of course that is flawed thinking. Surf
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#9
10-31-2005, 08:41 PM
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Re: minus 581 bets.
[ QUOTE ]
Since september first i'm down the following amount of bets at party poker. Not including skins. I'm doing well enough on other sites (up over 1100 bets...) but this run at party is just sickening. -107 at 100/200 -110 at 50/100 -94 at 30/60 -95 at 20/40 -95 at 10/20 I know this equals 500 but from peak til bottom it's 581. Yikes. I rule at poker.  [/ QUOTE ] You again? I told you not to call me unless it's an emergency.
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