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#51
09-29-2005, 06:01 PM
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Re: 3/6 6m KQs
[ QUOTE ]
Quote: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Quote: -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I think folding for 5% should be reserved for people you have an actual read on -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Can someone explain this statement to me? What does Sthief mean "for 5%"? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The pot is 17 BB. If I win this hand 5.8% of the time then I break even. [/ QUOTE ] AT what point is the pot 17 bb? I say fold the flop because hero is stuck between 2 raisers and is only getting 8-1 or 11%. 
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#52
09-29-2005, 06:08 PM
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Re: 3/6 6m KQs
I guess I should elaborate on why Id raise the river. When we were originally discussing the hand...or well right up until halfway through I missed that it wasnt BB putting the last raise in on the flop (Im a visual person and suck at read the hands in text).
Anyway look at his flop action. He leads into a capper, MP raises, BB just calls. Fine. Turn, he leads again probably putting MP on AK and MP just calls. At this point Im not feeling too bad about my hand. I think either one of them puts in another raise w/ something super strong. MP could have AK, 99-JJ on the turn (not really hot about his flop raise if he does have AK . If thats what he had the pot is large, u are not folding). Obviously he folded the river, given his stats he probably had AK, otherwise Im sure hes calling the last bet. Anyway...I dont think a turn raise is the best, card was a blank. Maybe its good, I dont think its bad. But Id probably raise the river...to me, unless he played KK retarded (wouldnt put it past him I guess) I think Im in decent shape here. If we consider MP to have AK w/ his river fold, BB can hold the following: AA = 3combos (discount this a little) KK=1 combo QQ=1 combo AK=6 combos (discount, if he does play Ak this way hes probably checking the river) 99-JJ=18 combos (maybe disount 99-TT a little) Those numbers are str8 up...the ones where I would discount they would be a little lower. But its also based on feel. So we have more information I think on the river and while I sometimes raise the turn (depending on a couple things, the card that comes off...how like Im getting 3bet, etc), I like a river raise better.
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#53
09-29-2005, 06:10 PM
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Re: 3/6 6m KQs
[ QUOTE ]
AT what point is the pot 17 bb? I say fold the flop because hero is stuck between 2 raisers and is only getting 8-1 or 11%. [/ QUOTE ] The 5% comment referred to the river decision.
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#54
09-29-2005, 06:20 PM
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Re: 3/6 6m KQs
So one of the reasons I posted this hand is because while playing it I wanted to raise the river. I outlined my thought process in IRC last night and oreogod has already taken the liberty of sharing those thoughts here. Here were my thoughts last night.
[03:15] jason_t: and then on the river [03:16] jason_t: i did a little math [03:16] jason_t: here's what i thought [03:16] jason_t: MP has AK [03:16] jason_t: period [03:16] jason_t: that's what he's got [03:16] jason_t: after he folds the river that's clear [03:16] jason_t: so [03:16] jason_t: 3 A left [03:16] jason_t: 2 K left [03:16] jason_t: so [03:16] jason_t: 3 combos of AA [03:16] jason_t: 1 combo of KK [03:16] jason_t: 1 combo of QQ [03:16] jason_t: 6 combo of JJ [03:16] jason_t: 6 combo of TT [03:17] jason_t: 6 combo of AK [03:17] jason_t: perhaps this can be discounted [03:17] jason_t: but maybe not because he sure played the hand like he was confused how to play [03:17] jason_t: which your average donk is with AK [03:17] jason_t: now your average donk is gonna push AA/KK/QQ harder on the flop he just is [03:17] jason_t: so i think AA/KK/QQ can be discounted [03:18] jason_t: 3 AA 1 KK 1 QQ <----> 6 JJ 6 TT 6 AK [03:21] jason_t: the reason i really like a river raise [03:21] jason_t: is cause of the combination analysis [03:21] jason_t: combined with the fact that the board paired [03:22] jason_t: meaning I will never be 3-bet [03:22] jason_t: except by QQ [03:22] jason_t: so it's a thin value raise [03:22] jason_t: cause i'm ahead of 6 JJ + 6 TT + 6 AK [03:22] jason_t: and only behind 3 AA + 1 KK + 1 QQ discounted slightly [03:22] jason_t: so there may actually be value in a raise
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#55
09-29-2005, 06:21 PM
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Re: 3/6 6m KQs
[ QUOTE ]
Letting a hand like K3o call 1 bet instead of making him call 2 bets isn't a huge mistake. If lop flop comes down K3x and you end up losing a huge pot b/c he out flopped you, its a big mistake. Thats all I was really trying to say [/ QUOTE ] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]
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#56
09-29-2005, 06:23 PM
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Re: 3/6 6m KQs
[ QUOTE ]
Letting a hand like K3o call 1 bet instead of making him call 2 bets isn't a huge mistake. If lop flop comes down K3x and you end up losing a huge pot b/c he out flopped you, its a big mistake. Thats all I was really trying to say [/ QUOTE ] It's a costly event but it's an unlikely one. The profit from the far likelier event of KQ beats K3 more than makes up for the cost of K3 beats KQ.
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#57
09-29-2005, 06:23 PM
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Re: 3/6 6m KQs
i like the way you played this hand
but i think his range is a little too big here as far as hands go--he won't play many hands like this IMO (except for the weird flop call)---and i don't like raising this river [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] people who raise one hand in 130 are either running ridiculously card dead or are passive idiots who only know how to play good hands
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#58
09-29-2005, 06:25 PM
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Re: 3/6 6m KQs
[ QUOTE ]
i like the way you played this hand but i think his range is a little too big here as far as hands go--he won't play many hands like this IMO (except for the weird flop call)---and i don't like raising this river [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] people who raise one hand in 130 are either running ridiculously card dead or are passive idiots who only know how to play good hands [/ QUOTE ] I'm just throwing my thoughts out there on a river raise. At the time I decided against it but I'm still not sure.
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#59
09-29-2005, 06:28 PM
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Re: 3/6 6m KQs
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Letting a hand like K3o call 1 bet instead of making him call 2 bets isn't a huge mistake. If lop flop comes down K3x and you end up losing a huge pot b/c he out flopped you, its a big mistake. Thats all I was really trying to say [/ QUOTE ] It's a costly event but it's an unlikely one. The profit from the far likelier event of KQ beats K3 more than makes up for the cost of K3 beats KQ. [/ QUOTE ] KQo also beats Q3o a lot!
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#60
09-29-2005, 06:28 PM
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Re: 3/6 6m KQs
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Letting a hand like K3o call 1 bet instead of making him call 2 bets isn't a huge mistake. If lop flop comes down K3x and you end up losing a huge pot b/c he out flopped you, its a big mistake. Thats all I was really trying to say [/ QUOTE ] It's a costly event but it's an unlikely one. The profit from the far likelier event of KQ beats K3 more than makes up for the cost of K3 beats KQ. [/ QUOTE ] KQo also beats Q3o a lot! [/ QUOTE ] [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
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