Another hand from the archives

[jason_t]

My point is merely that by understand what the correct action is in this hand and why will help us understand lots of other situations. What to do in the CO after I've posted with AA and it's been folded to me is an example of a situation to not worry about.

I think I'm capping it here. First of all, I definitely want to get another bet in here, especially three handed, and we will not be open to a reraise.

Second, I think it makes the river easier to play. If we cap the turn, I think that clearly tells the button that if he doesn't have J10 that he is behind. If the river doesn't improve us and the BB leads out, I probably call b/c I'm not folding this to an unknown, but if Button raises and BB 3bets the river I think I can find a fold.

[brettbrettr]

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I think I'm capping it here. First of all, I definitely want to get another bet in here, especially three handed, and we will not be open to a reraise.

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This is not the time to espuse this sort of thinking.



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If we cap the turn, I think that clearly tells the button that if he doesn't have J10 that he is behind.

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Why are you trying to give him information? Is it better than he plays perfectly or that you do?

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I think I'm capping it here. First of all, I definitely want to get another bet in here, especially three handed, and we will not be open to a reraise.

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This is not the time to espuse this sort of thinking.

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I'm not sure what you mean. I think we likely still have the best hand, and with outs to improve if we're behind, and button padding the pot, that I think a raise is +EV. I am even more inclined to raise if I will not face a reraise if I'm behind, as that might switch my raise to -EV. Probably I'm wrong but please tell me why I'm wrong.



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If we cap the turn, I think that clearly tells the button that if he doesn't have J10 that he is behind.

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Why are you trying to give him information? Is it better than he plays perfectly or that you do?

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If the button has KK or QQ KQ or AK or whatever, he is still going to call my raise and any number of bets on the river. So he will still be playing imperfectly. BB is an unknown and might lead the river with the nuts or one of the hands mentioned above. I personally want to put as few bets in as possible on the river as I think I'm behind a lot of the time here. Letting the button know that he is likely behind will prevent him from raising the river, so giving the button this information helps me a lot more than it helps him.

[jskills]

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no, i'm calling. i'm wagering that our equity is high enough on the turn to make capping the correct and calling a single river bet (or betting if checked to, and calling a raise).



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On the river a spade falls and what if BB bets, do you call then? If so, what do you do if the button raises? Button's raising the turn could be consistent with a possible 4 flush, no? Sure it could be 2 pair, but I'm thinking he'd cap the turn with that hand (which we'd find out by just calling the turn and not capping ourselves).

A more broad question is on the river, if you are in the middle of these opponents will you call each time it is one bet back to you - all the way to cap if they get into a raising war? The question in the OP was "what's the plan and why". We need to account for this situation, since I believe it may be part of the excercise.

[Jake (The Snake)]

My argument for calling... 3 situations:


If we are behind and hit:

Often, the turn is going to be capped anyway so while we do lose some bets by not capping ourselves, it is reduced some. Furthermore, we are much more likely to get paid off big on the river imo. Since we were behind on the turn, that means somebody with JT is going to go crazy on the river, especially considering we only called the turn. While it's unlikely someone with JT will slow down, it is at least possible if we cap the turn and keep raising the river that villain will realize we have a boat. Our hand is also hidden from the 3rd player if we only call the turn.

If we are behind and miss:

Calling the turn clearly saves us bets here. We could potentially save turn bets if button doesn't cap obviously. Then, there is the possibility that Entity suggested that we can fold the river, saving more bets. What I really don't want it to cap the turn, call BB's river bet and then get stuck in some raising war. If we don't cap the turn, I think it becomes more clear if this is going to happen or not.

If we are ahead on the turn:

Well here we are losing some bets. But not as much as you probably think. At most capping the turn will net 2 more bets, but villains will fold the river more often when this happens as well, so the number is reduced some. Furthermore, sometimes flush or straight draws will come in on the river and now calling saves more bets.


I'm defenetely missing some things here as my thoughts on this hand are very cluttered. Overall though, I want to be the one getting information and making my river play easier. I don't want to be the one giving away the fact I have a great hand when I am uncertain I am ahead. To those saying capping the turn makes the river play easier, I think you are sorely mistaken, though I can always be convinced.

[jgorham]

No one seems to be posting hand ranges here.

The tightest range I think is half reasonable for both players:

Button - 33, A3s, JT, KQ, AT, AJ
BB - 33, A3, KQ, JT, K3s

That is a pretty tight range for villains here. Even against that range, heroes equity is 39%. If button folds, heroes equity heads up against bb's range is 60%. And that doesn't even take into consideration the times these guys don't raise AK, AQ, KK, QQ. Or it doesn't take into consideration the times they have KsJs or KsTs. Or the times when they are just on crazy bluffs.

With those possibilities factored in, I would guess that hero has roughly 43%-45% equity on the turn, and not capping is just giving up money.

As for people who are worried about the hand playing itself easily on the river, you have top set. The hand isn't going to be that hard to play in any case. No matter what happens on the turn, you should be able to reduce the hand ranges significantly based on the river action. The info you gain from knowing whether or not the button is capping that turn (in which case you are going to call anyway) is going to at most save you one bet on the river. And that is only in the circumstance when he has exactly JT.

Besides all of that, letting the button call one bet on the turn rather than two with a pair and gutshot draw is the difference between him calling correctly or incorrectly. If he is going to beat you on the river by hitting a straight, it should be a mistake.

For me to be convinced that capping the turn isn't right, someone is going to need to tell me where my hand ranges are flawed, based on the action of the hand.

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I don't want to be the one giving away the fact I have a great hand when I am uncertain I am ahead. To those saying capping the turn makes the river play easier, I think you are sorely mistaken, though I can always be convinced.

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Give me a scenario where in this hand, if we're behind, it hurts us to show strength on turn.

EDIT: What I mean is how does calling make the river easier to play, or how does capping make the river harder to play.

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If we are behind and miss:

Calling the turn clearly saves us bets here. We could potentially save turn bets if button doesn't cap obviously. Then, there is the possibility that Entity suggested that we can fold the river, saving more bets. What I really don't want it to cap the turn, call BB's river bet and then get stuck in some raising war. If we don't cap the turn, I think it becomes more clear if this is going to happen or not.


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I think this is a good point.

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If we are ahead on the turn:

Well here we are losing some bets. But not as much as you probably think. At most capping the turn will net 2 more bets, but villains will fold the river more often when this happens as well, so the number is reduced some. Furthermore, sometimes flush or straight draws will come in on the river and now calling saves more bets.


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IMO if villians are raising on the turns with made hands, they are folding like 0% of the time on the river.

[Jake (The Snake)]

I think your range is fine, and I am assuming you got the 39% from PS. I think the 39% needs to get chopped down a bit as the most likely hand to be played this way by far is JT.

After chopping and accounting for crazy bluffs, I think Hero has 37-40% equity, which would be enough to cap for value. But for the reasons I specified above, combined with the fact that some of this equity comes from hitting on the river (so we lose some implied odds by raising now) I'd rather call.

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Besides all of that, letting the button call one bet on the turn rather than two with a pair and gutshot draw is the difference between him calling correctly or incorrectly. If he is going to beat you on the river by hitting a straight, it should be a mistake.

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This is true and a good point. It wouldn't be a big mistake though, and I don't think it overcomes the other factors.