$10/20... Marginal 44 in MP...

[spydog]

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I hate raising. What does it do for you? I would call and see what happens.

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I'm definitely not calling.

It's raise/fold for me here.

Very important point: This pot is HUGE and I want to maximize my chance of taking it down. Not raising gives any hand correct odds and no fear of seeing a turn.

Fold will clear out CO & Button from any hand that didn't hit the board + some pocket pairs. If they call, I'm out of this hand save a 4.

If SB 3-bets, I can figure out where I am much easier and will fold the turn without a 4.

We may (but probably won't) fold out the BB. At the very least, we find out where he is and get initiative for the rest of the hand against him to make him fold something with outs on the turn.

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I think this is really the wrong time to have a raise/fold mentality.

Rob

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I honestly think in this case that letting in the last 2 players that would desperately calldown if they hit the turn after peeling is very wrong. without 2 others to act I think a call would be fine, and possibly best.

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I don't think that you're doing trimming of the field when you're offering 9:1 and they're 'dumb calling stations.'

Rob

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Dumb calling stations will fold 2 kinds of flops when they miss: Ace high flops and paired board flops.

[TheMetetron]

Yeah, I really think these guys are folding if they missed, especially given the action they've just seen. They aren't completely clueless.

I think we have to call if we don't raise, but I think raising gives me a better chance to win the pot.

At the time, my mentality was.... this pot is huge, I think I can get those two to fold and improve my chances of winning. It's only one more small bet in big ass pot, eff it, I'm raising.


As it turned out, SB called my turn bet and BB folded.

River was a T or something and it went check, check.

He has AKo and MHIG.


I never win this pot if everyone is seeing a turn and I don't hit a 4, at least I gave myself a chance here.

[oreogod]

I thought it about it more before I went to bed...in this situation w/ two to act after u I think I raise here. The pot is large...the board is double paired w/ a Q, you are definitly calling, so I think raising is right. If you believe they will call regardless then its not so hot.

But if u think they will fold to a raise, by all means invest one more small bet into this huge pot. You must give yourself a chance. If your only opponents were the SB and BB Im just flat calling the flop. Given your reads and that u felt you could get the CO and Button to fold, I like the raise.

[Surfbullet]

I don't like the pfr - getting coldcalled by dumb calling stations leaves me OOP in a family pot with a weak holding that rarely improves, not my cup 'o tea. Different playstyles suit different players, though, so if it works for you roll with it.

On the flop I think you have to raise this, it's one i'd make every time. While it's possible that one of the donks has a PP bigger than ours, it's far more likely they are all on KT / A8 type hands and will fold to our raise...normally they don't care about calling 2 but you just raised the 3bettor on a paired board... ScArY!

If you get CC'd or 3bet it's easy to get away from on the turn(gotta call to hit a set). We set ourselves up for a HU-battle with SB who will often have AK. It's close, but I would err on the side of aggression / giving myself a chance to win a huge pot rather than folding here.

NH.

Surf

[ddubois]

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I'm waiting for someone to actually say how often this is and show me some math behind it being incorrect.

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Is this what you are looking for?

Board: Qs Qh 8d 7c
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 28.0373 % 27.86% 00.17% { 4c4d }
Hand 2: 35.9813 % 34.94% 01.05% { random }
Hand 3: 35.9813 % 34.94% 01.05% { random }

[TheMetetron]

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I'm waiting for someone to actually say how often this is and show me some math behind it being incorrect.

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Is this what you are looking for?

Board: Qs Qh 8d 7c
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 28.0373 % 27.86% 00.17% { 4c4d }
Hand 2: 35.9813 % 34.94% 01.05% { random }
Hand 3: 35.9813 % 34.94% 01.05% { random }

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No, his hand isn't random, which suprisingly increases my odds. We already got the odds down I think.

[ddubois]

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If you raise you're still giving overcards odds to call.

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Yeah, but they don't know that. In fact, if the raise gets them to make an incorrect fold relative to their true equity, that seems like a boon. (Assuming that the alternative is hero calling, and them calling one bet correctly.)

[ddubois]

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No, his hand isn't

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Ok, but you are not heads up. We should logically assume that BB's range is better than random once he calls the flop.

[TheMetetron]

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No, his hand isn't

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Ok, but you are not heads up. We should logically assume that BB's range is better than random once he calls the flop.


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16:1, he is correct to call with any hand he called with PF in the BB.

[ddubois]

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No, his hand isn't random, which suprisingly increases my odds. We already got the odds down I think.

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Board: Qs Qh 8d 7c
Hand 1: 19.7517 % 19.74% 00.02% { 4c4d }
Hand 2: 57.6150 % 57.18% 00.44% { 77+, ATs+, KQs, AJo+ }
Hand 3: 22.6333 % 22.18% 00.45% { random }