$215: Interesting use of the min. bet

[microbet]

Then, using the computer model, IRIE generated every thought VILLIAN could possibly have in the next, say ten years, which IRIE then filtered through a probability matrix to determine everything VILLIAN was going to do in that period. So you see, IRIE knew VILLIAN was going to MIN-BET THE TURN before it ever even occurred to VILLIAN. IRIE knows everything VILLIAN IS ever going to do before VILLIAN knowS it HIMself. How about that?

jk, of course.

[Michael C.]

Again this assumes the bet wasn't a mistake. Honestly, I think a mistake here is as possible as almost anything else. I mean how many players here would mini-bet the turn at all? Of course most likely you have some info about the player since the 215 world is smaller than most, no?

[Michael C.]

So you think it's that much more likely that villian has an ace here and will bluff the river if he misses than any other possibility? What if he has a flush draw and is making a silly blocking bet, and then check/folds the river? Maybe he would have called your bet on the turn, especially if he has an ace, which is likely? Of course it depends a lot on your read of the player, but I think there are certainly merits to both calling and raising on the turn, and I think it's at least possible by checking you are giving him a free draw at 12 outs, and will miss a bet you could have gotten called. Versus the possibility of inducing a bluff. Either is possible, as is the possibility that he has something like AJ and misclicked. Better players than me might know what is right here, but I don't think it's an "easy" call unless you have a read.

Honestly, the more I think about this, the more I think it's a mistake. Did you consider that Irie? What do you do on the river if a Q falls and he makes the same river bet? If an A falls? A J? A heart? All of this is very dependent on whether you think the bet was an accident, as is essentially your entire analysis. He could even have AJ if he meant to bet a reasonable amount. I'd pay attention here to whether or not he bet quickly.

Judging by the fact that you posted this hand, I'm assuming that it became clear to you after the hand that this wasn't a mistake, but this is just as results-oriented then one of those annoying posts entitled "fold KK here" in which some donk open pushes with AA and hero's unlucky enough to have KK. To say categorically that he can't have AJ here is similar to hero in that hand saying "I read him for AA."


Ignoring the possibility of a misclick here is a legitimate leak.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
To say categorically that he can't have AJ here is similar to hero in that hand saying "I read him for AA."

Ignoring the possibility of a misclick here is a legitimate leak.

[/ QUOTE ]

The odds of this being a misclick vs. 'not AJ', however, are tiny enough for it not to be a factor.

Maybe if he turbo minbet or something, but if he took any time...nah. He picked up a draw or some other thing of that nature (which is still possibly reason to raise the turn, but I don't mind trapping, either.)

[Irieguy]

[ QUOTE ]


Ignoring the possibility of a misclick here is a legitimate leak.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's one of the funniest things anyone has ever told me about my poker game.

Irieguy

[microbet]

Wah, no replies to my humorous use of a movie quote.

[ QUOTE ]

I put him on A-Js

[/ QUOTE ]

That's the only two-card combination that it would be essentialy impossible for him to have.
Irieguy

[/ QUOTE ]

OK I'll bite, why is it impossible? Isn't that about as valid as someone watching your play this hand and saying that it's essentially impossible for you to have QJ?

[curtains]

It may be becuase the jack is the jack of hearts, thus impossible to have AJs and have a flush draw. Also if s=spades, Irie has the Jack of spades.

I put him on a heart draw. The min bet on the turn is just to avoid checking and inviting a big bet. Since you didn't raise such a lame bet, he thinks he can steal on the river (maybe thinking you were on the draw also).