Longest feasible downswing for solid player

[toss]

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I think if it goes past 200-250BB down you should start to worry.

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I think that's a bit low, depending on what he's playing. I agree if he's playing 2/4 (easy) or 3/6 (low variance), but 5/10 and up, a 200 BB downswing will probably happen every 50k hands or so.

I think more worrisome than a 200 BB downswing would be an extended break-even stretch of like 25k hands

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Geebus a 200BB downswing every 50k hands or so? I don't know if I'm ready to swing like that.

[tansoku]

Thanks, very interesting.
It's amazing you can call/raise 40% of steal attempts. I assume you induce a lot of folds? I mean, do you turn it into a game of chicken (i.e. keep raising until he folds)?
How this doesn't spew chips is amazing to me, but I suck at blind play..

[rryjew]

Everytime I hit a bad run I like to evaluate how much luck has to do with my current streak. I created a graphing program that plots the EV of every hole card combination sorted by ev. I compare that graph to ev of the same hole cards over the last 10K hands and 1.5K hands. If I find that my big hands aren't performing to average I can attribute some of my downswing to just bad luck... I recently had a streak over 3500 hands where my biggest loser was AKs and my eighth worst loser was KK
<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
Hole Cards Count Win % Net win / hand
AKs 14 28.6 (53.50) (3.82)
K9s 12 0.0 (48.50) (4.04)
ATs 8 0.0 (44.00) (5.50)
AJs 14 28.6 (40.50) (2.89)
AQo 25 36.0 (35.75) (1.43)
KTs 7 0.0 (29.00) (4.14)
QTs 7 0.0 (23.00) (3.29)
KK 19 52.6 (22.75) (1.20)
KQs 15 33.3 (22.00) (1.47)
54s 9 0.0 (20.00) (2.22)
66 20 10.0 (20.00) (1.00)
33 32 18.8 (20.00) (0.63)
A3s 12 16.7 (18.50) (1.54)
J9s 5 0.0 (18.00) (3.60)
ATo 26 30.8 (17.25) (0.66)
J8s 15 0.0 (15.50) (1.03)
KJs 8 25.0 (14.75) (1.84)
22 10 10.0 (13.50) (1.35)
Q8o 31 0.0 (12.50) (0.40)
</pre><hr />
So I guess my point is try to figure out what the root cause is, there is very little defense if your big hands are getting cracked by some yahoo playing 72o and catching trips on the river.

[tansoku]

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I wouldn't read into that much. My winrate at the old 15/30 was in excess of 8 BB/100 for the first 15K or so hands.

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One word...DAMN!
What do you think is the max sustainable BB/100 @ 15/30?

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Thanks, very interesting.
It's amazing you can call/raise 40% of steal attempts. I assume you induce a lot of folds? I mean, do you turn it into a game of chicken (i.e. keep raising until he folds)?
How this doesn't spew chips is amazing to me, but I suck at blind play..

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I try to tailor it to my opponent and my current table image. That's the real key with blind play. And yes, I get pretty aggressive.

I think I might also suck at blind play though.

[Jurollo]

I think just blind stealing aggressively should help my winrate and also even out downswings, never thought it could be that important.
~Justin

[baronzeus]

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I recall that from my 50,000 hands or so of lower limit poker my rate was above 4, maybe even above 5. I know a few people who probably wouldn't lie to me who say their lower limit WRs are in the 4s as well.

I think it's defnitely sustainable. Maybe I ran super hot, but my WSD% was only a bit above 50 during that time, so I don't think so.

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Did your win rate fall off in some predictable fashion?
for example:
2/4 = 4
5/10 = 3
10/20 = 1.5

Just curious....

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Not really, though 2/4 was higher than 3/6, and I didn't play much 5/10 full back then. I jumped to 10/20 basically right from 3/6.

Here are my stats from that period of time, in case you care:



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Your VPIP is where I strive to be. Doesn't look like you were running too hot either.

The only gripe I have here is that once you had mad e 2K at 2/4 you should have moved up [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[SomethingClever]

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This graph answers many of those questions. I would love to see three or four 100k hand graphs by some of our full ring game pros, such as a microbob type player thats has over a years worth of data, and see the differences over these 100k hand samples

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I'm not a pro, but here's a big graph. This includes .5/1, 1/2, 2/4, 1/2 6-max, 2/4 6-max, 3/6 6-max and 5/10 6-max.

Last 50k running at 0.5 bb/100. (first 35k at 5 bb/100 [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img])

[Emperor]

This Month

5/10
11,307 hands
VPIP 16.97
Att. to Steal Blinds 48.92%
Folded BB to steal 54.73%

Course I am only at 2bb/100 for this tiny sample...

and I suck at Poker...

[Evan]

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Doesn't look like you were running too hot either.

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At this point I had to start questioning if you looked at the post you responded to.