A Lot of Fun Until Your Friends Find Out... - Page 6

Margeaux · #51 08-05-2005, 03:58 PM

nh WD. The awesome power of KTo.

I agree that The Dealer's 3-bet on the flop is probably a wonderful thing, but a couple questions:

What happens if all you succeed in doing is isolating against the PFR? Aren't you laying hella implied odds since it is not unlikely that UTG has you dominated? The likely range of UTG's hands puts you squarely behind him on this flop, and potentially dominated and drawing thin.

So one essential question is: do we think the Dealer is going to 3-bet the PFR out of the hand enough to make this profitable?

When it works, your promotion raise here costs you a total 3 SB in return for about 25% equity in a 17 SB pot. That's fine. However, the promo raise is only likely to work when The Dealer 3-bets, and the PFR folds. In order for the promotion to be +EV, that needs to happen with probability p which satisfies:

p (.25) (17 SB) > 2 SB
p > 47%

This is a lower bound--since I'm lazy, I haven't taken account of the fact that it costs you 3 SB when you get 3-bet, and only 2 SB when you don't. (I math bad). But even then it seems a little on the high side, right? Half the time, is Dealer going to 3-bet, AND is PFR is going to fold his overcards (which you're not willing to do...), or his AA/KK/QQ/JJ?

I guess the really interesting question for me is, what do you do when the Dealer and UTG call and the turn brings a 3? Now you're in horrible shape, half your outs are chop outs (if they're good), and you've tied yourself to a humongous pot with much the worst of it. Or what happens when The Dealer folds and the PFR 3-bets you?

The worst, though, is that now all your friends have seen you playing KTo and can clown you for it.

damaniac · #52 08-05-2005, 03:59 PM

Actually, we have 7 outs vs. those hands (the case 3), so you should be discounting from 7, not 6. Which also means that we have an additional out when he holds anything like TT/JJ or whatever that we have discounted.

shant · #53 08-05-2005, 04:01 PM

It's been said 100 times before so I don't know why you're refusing to understand it. He cold-called preflop. Based on the preflop and flop action, the rest of the hands you listed are unlikely. I'll give you the possibilty of TT. You're still discounting the outs too much. You want a discount, so I'd say WD has 6.75 outs here on the turn.

Also, there is no chance this pot splits on the river.

callmedonnie · #54 08-05-2005, 04:01 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The worst, though, is that now all your friends have seen you playing KTo and can clown you for it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think that may be the best part (other than spiking that King) because now your table image will get you in a good spot to pick up some value. Especially on the next flop you raise.

W. Deranged · #55 08-05-2005, 04:02 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Actually, we have 7 outs vs. those hands (the case 3), so you should be discounting from 7, not 6. Which also means that we have an additional out when he holds anything like TT/JJ or whatever that we have discounted.

[/ QUOTE ]

Damaniac is so totally the winner for realizing that the case 3 wins us the pot. I can't believe I missed that. That means my hand becomes... uh... better.

hellite · #56 08-05-2005, 04:04 PM

Pathetic.

It certainly is possible that the "3" is out, but it is possible that Villain is holding the 3. Furthermore, if the 3 does hit, and Villain holds an A? Villain wins.

W. Deranged · #57 08-05-2005, 04:06 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Pathetic.

It certainly is possible that the "3" is out, but it is possible that Villain is holding the 3. Furthermore, if the 3 does hit, and Villain holds an A? Villain wins.

[/ QUOTE ]

Please explain to me what hand villain is holding that possibly contains an A.

shant · #58 08-05-2005, 04:07 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Pathetic.

It certainly is possible that the "3" is out, but it is possible that Villain is holding the 3. Furthermore, if the 3 does hit, and Villain holds an A? Villain wins.

[/ QUOTE ]
What hand with an A does he hold? <font color="white">I asked this question fully hoping you reply with A3. PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE.</font>

damaniac · #59 08-05-2005, 04:08 PM

OMG. Are you retarded?

Yes the three is not always an out. However, we put our opponent on a range of hands (which you have widened with little rational reason except that villain "could" have those hands), and set our sets, and then discounted from there (remember, you gave us 6, then discounted based on other possible hands taking some of those outs). So what I'm saying is, you should start from 7, since given our range we have 7 outs when our read is correct, and then discount from there for the times it isn't.

On a side note, it's taken you less than 100 posts to clearly reveal yourself to be on of the stupidest and most obstinate posters on 2+2. This is no small feat. Congrats (and I mean that).

hellite · #60 08-05-2005, 04:10 PM

I know he cold called preflop. This however does not limit him to 44-99 right? I mean, if he cold called preflop with 44-99 I would say that this is a bad play. Another bad play would be to cold call w/A10o or suited, AJ, AK, AQ JJ, QQ, KK, 1010, or A3 suited or K3 suited. I am certainly believing that we can rule some of these hands out, but not all of them.