Simple handreading

[SomethingClever]

77 and 44 are the only ones that make sense.

Mayyyybe K7s or K5s.

3-bet.

River?

[DrBob]

Your possible hands make sense, although I think you meant "K7, K4, 77, 44", not "K7, K5, 77, 55". I wouldn't rule out the suited K7 or K4 from a 25%VPIP player after 2 limpers. But his flop bet is significant. It's asking to be raised, which implies a hand that needs protection, like K7 or K4. With 77 or 44 he might well have checked the flop, looking to checkraise after several call the (hoped-for) bet by the preflop raiser. So to my mind, these hands are much more likely than 77 or 44, even not counting the sets' lesser a priori likelihoods. On the turn, he's just betting K7 or K4 for value.

[spamuell]

Eric, I think a flop raise is much better than a call, mainly for the reasons sthief mentioned. Also, I don't think he included that a non-insignificant amount of the time here, you're in a set-over-set situation and you make several more bets when you raise the flop than when you raise the turn. When you have the nuts, it's generally best not to slowplay because you make so much more when someone else has the a very strong hand and thinks they're milking you hard.

Remember the lowball example in TOP where Sklansky recommends you just call with a 7-low but raise a wheel?

[madscout]

[ QUOTE ]
His flop bet is significant. It's asking to be raised, which implies a hand that needs protection, like K7 or K4. With 77 or 44 he might well have checked the flop, looking to checkraise after several call the (hoped-for) bet by the preflop raiser. So to my mind, these hands are much more likely than 77 or 44, even not counting the sets' lesser a priori likelihoods. On the turn, he's just betting K7 or K4 for value.

[/ QUOTE ]

If villain is a thinking player, this analysis gets an A+. I like.

[molawn2mo]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
His flop bet is significant. It's asking to be raised, which implies a hand that needs protection, like K7 or K4. With 77 or 44 he might well have checked the flop, looking to checkraise after several call the (hoped-for) bet by the preflop raiser. So to my mind, these hands are much more likely than 77 or 44, even not counting the sets' lesser a priori likelihoods. On the turn, he's just betting K7 or K4 for value.

[/ QUOTE ]

If villain is a thinking player, this analysis gets an A+. I like.

[/ QUOTE ]

don't think so.

re-read... villain checked/raised the turn. K4/K7 either donk the turn, cc or cf but certainly not, cr, imho.

[SeaEagle]

[ QUOTE ]
Also, I don't think he included that a non-insignificant amount of the time here, you're in a set-over-set situation and you make several more bets when you raise the flop than when you raise the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]
If 5 people see every flop, you'll flop set over set about 1.5% of the times you flop a set, or about once in every 5000 hands you play. Choosing your strategy based on the chance that you might be set over set doesn't seem like the best idea.

I think even sfer would agree that in a vacuum this is a good spot to slowplay his set. But as he pointed out, there were substantial mitigating factors in this particular case that made him feel that fast playing was best.

[spamuell]

If 5 people see every flop, you'll flop set over set about 1.5% of the times you flop a set, or about once in every 5000 hands you play.

Where did you get this figure, is it a simulation based on random cards or does it take into account hand ranges that are limped with? Anyway, it's irrelevant, you want the probability that someone has a set given that you already have a set. If you put EP players on hand ranges and consider the flop action, the probability that you have set over set is A LOT higher than 1.5%

Anyway, this was just one of the reasons for raising the flop here.

[TiltsMcFabulous]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
if you told us what limit this was it would help.


[/ QUOTE ]

Just noticed this. Please explain your different lines for Party 3/6, 20/40 and 15/30. It was one of the three.

[/ QUOTE ]

Waste of time. It's a crummy example to illustrate hand reading, as people have pointed out, and wasting more time explaining what to do in differentially-aggressive games is useless.

I find it funny how you act like a teacher on this board and don't really know/have a lesson plan.

~ Tilts

[johnd192]

55, 77, 75s or 86s. I probably 3 bet and call a cap.
If capped by him I may just c/call the river if a blank comes off, unless he is the type who reads you for AK and he would cap with two pair.

[sfer]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
if you told us what limit this was it would help.


[/ QUOTE ]

Just noticed this. Please explain your different lines for Party 3/6, 20/40 and 15/30. It was one of the three.

[/ QUOTE ]

Waste of time. It's a crummy example to illustrate hand reading, as people have pointed out, and wasting more time explaining what to do in differentially-aggressive games is useless.

I find it funny how you act like a teacher on this board and don't really know/have a lesson plan.

~ Tilts

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay. I'll stop.