$10+$1 Rebuy AK hand

[Lloyd]

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I'm curious to know what Hero's line of thinking was when checking the flop, and especially the turn.

If he was trying to induce a bluff by showing weakness, I instacall that river.

If he was looking for a cheap way to drop this hand, I fold.

I always try to have a plan for every street VS an unknown, and I usually follow through regardless of his actions.

[/ QUOTE ]
This is a very key statement that I agree with. If the hero checked the river to induce a bet he CANNOT fold on the river. He got exactly what he was hoping for.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]

This is a very key statement that I agree with. If the hero checked the river to induce a bet he CANNOT fold on the river. He got exactly what he was hoping for.

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Did he check the turn to get a river call from a passive player with a worse hand or to get a river push?

[Laomedon]

This is how I would play the hand...

Flop, bet 1800-2000, usually takes it down right there. If not then, obviously the hand would be entirely different so it's impossible to comment on what could have been.

As played. Fine, flop is checked around. Bet 2000 on the turned King. If anyone calls or raises naturally alarms start going off to some degree.

As played. Turn is checked around. At this point, Hero has absolutely no idea what the two Villains have and they can have no possible way of putting Hero on AKo. Hero bets 2500 and is reraised all-in. What possible hands check the flop and turn that are beating you? You think JJ, 55, 22, or KJ are going to let either Hero or the other guy draw to the flush? At the very least one of these hands is going to be betting the turn. Considering that Villain cannot possibly put Hero on AKo here (primarily because he didn't bet the turned King) it would seem that the Hero's river bet is almost certainly a bluff. Villain therefore decided to go ahead and take this pot away from him by putting him to the test. I cannot see Villain holding anything that beats the Hero in this spot. I call and expect to win.

[durron597]

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You think JJ, 55, 22, or KJ are going to let either Hero or the other guy draw to the flush?

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Wouldn't a flush draw at least bet the turn to try to take it down?

[reecelights]

Since there are no reads you cannot make an assumption about the overall quality of this player. But let's look at the possible motivations behind his push, IMO:

If he is a strong player (50% probability, maybe generous given a rebuy tourney) and has you beat, he would most likely want to induce a call. The usual course of action here would be to raise to about 6000-7500, which he didn't do, so therefore leaves three ways to play the river:
a) He has you beat, thinks you are a strong player, and is hoping he looks like a donk trying to scare you off a hand, therefore you will call with your AK (30%)
b) He has you beat, thinks you are weak, and will call his apparent bluff without thinking for more than a nanosecond (40%)
c) He doesn't have you beat, w/AJ or QJs (would a strong player limp/call AJ or QJ from EP?) or QQ/TT and was going to check-raise the flop, interprets your bet as a weak steal by a weak player on a scare card, and thinks you will fold. (30%)
[Total of: 35% better hand, 15% worse hand]

If he is a weak player (50% probability):
a) He doesn't have you beat, has AJ, QJ, JT, or the case K and thinks his hand is good (30%)
b) He doesn't have you beat and is on a complete bluff thinking it will look like HE slowplayed the K (20%)
c) He has you beat, and doesn't think about making a bet of 7500 to improve the chances of getting called and paid off (50%)
[Total of 25% better hand, 25% worse hand]

From this it looks as if he is ahead 60% and behind 40%. Just my guesses.

I think this makes the river play a very difficult bet/fold to raise because of the previously missed opportunities for extracting information. You still have a healthy stack and can bounce back.

[Laomedon]

Perhaps, we don't have any read on Villain nor any noted read on the other guy (not that he matters for the purpose of discussion). I guess my main point that I probably didn't illustrate well is this: why must we give the Villain credit for such an elaborate slowplay when the Hero's river bet would look to many many players like a stab at the pot from the preflop raiser with AQ? Wouldn't you agree that the Villain simply cannot possibly, in his wildest dreams, think that the Hero has AK in this spot?

If Villain has KJ or god forbid K5 or something then that's that, but I just feel like this is a perfect spot for Villain to bluff at a decent sized pot. Considering the fact that many people here are contemplating laying this hand down, it doesn't necessarily seem like a terrible play by the Villain either to tell you the truth.

[durron597]

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If Villain has KJ or god forbid K5 or something then that's that, but I just feel like this is a perfect spot for Villain to bluff at a decent sized pot. Considering the fact that many people here are contemplating laying this hand down, it doesn't necessarily seem like a terrible play by the Villain either to tell you the truth.

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Do you agree that if Villian had *any* piece we would probably know about it before the river? Unless he's slowplaying.

Also if the Villian had a hand with showdown value unless it's exactly KQ he would just call instead of raise for fear of only being called by better hands - unless he's ahead of us.

Now, I'm not saying that Villian can't be on a pure bluff here, but I'm saying that a pure bluff is the only hand in Villians range that we beat (this isn't a bad spot to bluff though, so the previous statement doesn't necessarily make it a fold).

[Laomedon]

Regarding your first statement, yes, we would probably know if the Villain had any piece of the flop unless he was slowplaying. Still, that's either a sick move on the river with a boat (realizing it would look precisely
like a bluff) or a really ignorant move because only AK could really call that all-in and even then it's close as this discussion has revealed.
I agree that a pure bluff is the only likely hand that the Hero is ahead of (assuming Villain is a reasonable player) aside from, naturally KQ, but can you really believe that Villain is doing anything here other than bluffing at this pot? Please say you agree with me that Villain would have a hard time giving the Hero credit for trips. I hate to keep repeating myself, but I am totally convinced that considering the way the hand played out, the Hero's river bet looked like a shot in the dark, an attempt to take the pot down and the Villain read the Hero's bet as merely a meager attempt to win the pot and pushed knowing that he would almost certainly take it down.

[PancakeBoy]

[ QUOTE ]
Regarding your first statement, yes, we would probably know if the Villain had any piece of the flop unless he was slowplaying. Still, that's either a sick move on the river with a boat (realizing it would look precisely
like a bluff) or a really ignorant move because only AK could really call that all-in and even then it's close as this discussion has revealed.
I agree that a pure bluff is the only likely hand that the Hero is ahead of (assuming Villain is a reasonable player) aside from, naturally KQ, but can you really believe that Villain is doing anything here other than bluffing at this pot? Please say you agree with me that Villain would have a hard time giving the Hero credit for trips. I hate to keep repeating myself, but I am totally convinced that considering the way the hand played out, the Hero's river bet looked like a shot in the dark, an attempt to take the pot down and the Villain read the Hero's bet as merely a meager attempt to win the pot and pushed knowing that he would almost certainly take it down.

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Damn hit the nail on the head. The way the hand was played out it's almost certain that villain is on a pure bluff.

If villain is savvy enouhg to slow play a set or top 2 pair on the turn, isn't he smart enough to bet it to protect against the two hearts out there? Just doesn't add up. Villain's on a move.

[Laomedon]

Judging from the tone of your posts, I would have to assume that Villain had a boat. Obviously you haven't been basing your analysis on this knowledge, but do you think that I have made reasonable points? I would be inclined to believe that this move by the Villain could very well be making a pure bluff a higher percentage of the time then making a pretty damn good play (or just a ridiculously ignorant) by a slowplayed set/KJ,