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#51
07-13-2005, 06:52 PM
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Re: I puked a little and folded my full house
[ QUOTE ] What are you putting him on that he'd play that way? Given the factors, this is much more easier of a call than a fold. [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] So far, he seems like a super passive calling station. Imagine the most passive guy you have ever seen [/ QUOTE ] A jack or ten? Makes perfect sense given the action. 
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#52
07-13-2005, 07:00 PM
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Re: I puked a little and folded my full house
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] What are you putting him on that he'd play that way? Given the factors, this is much more easier of a call than a fold. [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] So far, he seems like a super passive calling station. Imagine the most passive guy you have ever seen [/ QUOTE ] A jack or ten? Makes perfect sense given the action. [/ QUOTE ] Probably, yes. But often enough not to call the raise? No way.. While (as I said earlier) his play over one orbit is enough to know that he'll call down random cards and quite likely doesn't have a jack or ten before he raised, it's not enough to know that he's so passive he'd never bluff. In fact, he might Only bet or raise when he IS bluffing. To use the famous line, I'd have to say the line here is "Bet, and call a raise. And it's not even close." Edit: OK, to be fair, the bet is not even close. The call is close.
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#53
07-13-2005, 07:01 PM
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Re: I puked a little and folded my full house
you are so so wrong on this. Please think about this again.
If he calls down with any ace and any K, and never raises except when he has a J (two almost gauranteed assumptions) then when we bet and are called we are exactly a 67% favorite. If KK or QQ are some possible holdings then we can win an even higher percentage of the time. This is a very easy bet, I'm not sure what you dont understand about it. If he calls with K high on an A high board he SURELY SURELY SURELY calls down with K high and possibly Q high on a JJTTx board.
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#54
07-13-2005, 07:09 PM
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Re: I puked a little and folded my full house
[ QUOTE ]
you are so so wrong on this. Please think about this again. If he calls down with any ace and any K, and never raises except when he has a J (two almost gauranteed assumptions) then when we bet and are called we are exactly a 67% favorite. If KK or QQ are some possible holdings then we can win an even higher percentage of the time. This is a very easy bet, I'm not sure what you dont understand about it. If he calls with K high on an A high board he SURELY SURELY SURELY calls down with K high and possibly Q high on a JJTTx board. [/ QUOTE ] Strongly agree with part 1 and disagree with part 2. I think the key point here is: Just because he calls down with crap and doesn't raise good hands *doesn't mean* that he won't raise on a bluff. If he raises, he's *probably* got a jack or ten, but not the 91%+ of the time you need to make folding the right play. I don't think it's necessarily wrong, but it's definitely not an 'easy fold'. In fact, I think it would be more of a difficult call, especially given the information gained.
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#55
07-13-2005, 07:16 PM
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Re: I puked a little and folded my full house
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] What are you putting him on that he'd play that way? Given the factors, this is much more easier of a call than a fold. [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] So far, he seems like a super passive calling station. Imagine the most passive guy you have ever seen [/ QUOTE ] A jack or ten? Makes perfect sense given the action. [/ QUOTE ] Maybe, but certainly not when you take into account his prior hands. Now if you want to claim sample size as it's only 1 orbit, that's another reason to call. Not a reason to fold. b
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#58
07-14-2005, 12:52 AM
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Re: I puked a little and folded my full house
[ QUOTE ]
Oh my this is getting really silly. he called down with K-high ONCE. this doesn't mean he's going to keep doing it! [/ QUOTE ] One way to find out. b
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