Paul Phillips WSOP Hand

[betgo]

Yes, I think it is an easy call. If villain has a pair less then 99, you are ahead with JTs. It is unlikely villain would push with a 9. JTs is 32% versus KK, which is a possible holding given the minireraise and push. You have more than 38% on average.

In an SNG with multiple places paying or a supersatellite, you can play tight for survival. In a tournmaent, you have to pretty much play pot odds. We have discussed this issue in this forum many times, and I am not going to argue it in detail.

As the original poster expected, all the donks have come out to criticize Paul Phillips on this play.

[Masquerade]

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Very rigorous. Why don't you name this "generous" range and actually calculate the EV? No, you're right, handwaving is much better.

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It's impossible to more than guesstimate. But this looks like an overpair with no hearts (when you're 35%), two big overcards with A h or Kh (you're 50%) or a 9 (you're 30%). You've already listed some other cases on your blog. We can argue about the relative probabilities all day but your equity is not a million miles from 40%.

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Duh.

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It was your own analysis, lovingly posted by Woodguy, where you plugged in 50%! Maybe it still holds for you at 40% or 38% but using 50% wasn't playing fair.

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For your own sake I hope you're just hating on me as opposed to believing your own words.

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Of course I believe superior players can engineer better situations than 50-50. If you believe your superiority is based on your willingness to make 50-50 calls that others wouldnt then great. One day you will win 8 coin-flips in a row and win the tournament. Is that really good poker?

In any case I like you - although your mindless camp-followers get me down.

[baronzeus]

I understand that you are favored here against most hands that push. But don't you agree that there is around a 50% chance you go home with nothing? Unless you think this call definitely doubles your money expectation, I can't justify calling this.

I ran into a similar situation yesterday.

Middle of a 18K guaranteed MTT. I have 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] in CO. I open raise to 400 with blinds at 50/100 and my stack at 4K, about 3x average. Folds to BB, who calls. His stack = my stack -200.

Flop comes:
6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

I intended to push this flop if it was bet or checked to me. But he pushed. I called but I think the right move is to fold here, even though against his range I am ahead or even, with a big enough stack I can continue on in the tournament.

[fnord_too]

I interupt this thread for a non tourney question...

I understand you think TD is your strongest game. In the "Other Poker" forum we discuss TD a lot with a fair bit of math. We would love to have your insight in the discussions. (Ok, that wasn't really a question...)

[Double Eagle]

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I understand that you are favored here against most hands that push. But don't you agree that there is around a 50% chance you go home with nothing? Unless you think this call definitely doubles your money expectation, I can't justify calling this.


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Let's see if he folds he has 10k, if he calls and wins he has 26k. I'd say his expectation more than doubles. The math on this isn't that hard, nor is the decision close. It's amazing to me that this is even debatable.

Kudos to SossMan for finding an innovative way to initiate this month's version of the "Survivalist vs Accumulators" debate. Actually I use the term debate loosely, as this is a bit like debating the question Creationism vs Evolution. The Survivalists are unshakable in their belief that there is some inherent value in survival in the face of mountains of mathematical evidence which proves that this faith is misguided. Perhaps next month we should choose a subject which is a little less open and shut to argue about, here are a few possibilities:

o Is the earth flat?
o Did Iraq have WMD?
o Did Barry Bonds use Steroids?
o If SossMan raises your BB from the Button, what kind of hand do you need to reraise?

[adanthar]

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Yea.. Keep playing pots that'll knock you out of the tournament 50% of the time and give you no piece of the prize money.. That'll get you a LONG way!!

LOL.

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You're an idiot. If you don't understand why every decent player that posted in this thread is on one side and you are on the other, lurk more.

That said, like I stated earlier, I think the minute you see a flush draw and decide the other guy does not necessarily have AA, you have to push here. He pot commits himself so often* that not pushing here is pretty bad.

*of course, if he's like sekrah here and doesn't realize what pot odds are, feel free to CR all day.

[sirio11]

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It's amazing to me that this is even debatable.


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Nothing personal, but that is most probably because you are not a deep thinker.

[tshak]

While I've questioned the play openly on Paul's blog as the +EV was a bit confusing to me (until he spelled it out), that is besides the point that your posts are completely useless to the discussion of this hand. You keep spewing about his hand equity (which I think Paul settled on a number around 45.7% on his blog) and are ignoring some trivial aspects such as the pot.

It's impossible to more than guesstimate.

Yes, and a world class player is going to have a far superior hand range estimate on his opponent than you are even in hindsight. His hand range and quick calculation of +EV took me about 15 minutes to figure out in hindsight and with PokerStove in front of me. The fact that he was able to validate with more accuracy his +EV decision post mortem is irrelevant. If he plays this hand the same way in every tourney he will gain ~T1900 on average, or an increase of almost 20% of his stack on average. This is an insta-call in a ring game. The tourney life has some merit but I can't help to wonder if this is just way too much EV to throw away for such a concept.

[IMTheWalrus8]

No argument on the call, given the initial flop check.

But I'm not getting the planned flop check-raise, absent a read.

If the button checks the flop, and you don't hit your flush on the turn, haven't you lost your pot odds on the hand?
Of course you could bet about 1/2 the pot on the turn and still have good odds.

It just seems like you're slowplaying a draw and I don't quite get that.

Why isn't a bet of 1/2 the pot the way to go on the flop? Button may have still come over the top and the result would have been the same.

[betgo]

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Why isn't a bet of 1/2 the pot the way to go on the flop? Button may have still come over the top and the result would have been the same.

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With a flush draw and shallow money, you are looking to push. If you make a 1/2 pot bet and get called, you may have a difficult decision on the turn. The alternative to playing for a checkraise is to just push or make a large bet.