Good power play or silly risk ?

[fuzzbox]

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Sean, you need to stop thinking that you are so much better than your opponents that you can afford to lay these hands down.

You have 25K. You've just paid 3,500. Fold here, you have 21,500.

Call with 88, 53% of the time you have 52K. 47% of the time, you have 0.

.53*52K + .47*0K = 27,600 . Calling with 88 has an EV of T6,100 or 30% of your stack.

Call with 77, you have a 50% chance of having 52K and a 50% chance of having 0K = 26K. Calling with 77 has an EV of T4,500 or 20% of your stack.

Call with 99, 29,300, EV = T7,800 or 36% of your stack.

Risk/Reward. Yes, there is the risk that you bust out right here, but (56%/53%/50%) of the time, you have 52K instead of 21.5K. You are giving up quite a bit by folding here. These ARE the edges that good players find.

CSC

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What you say here is extremely skewed. If the pusher only ever has AK then this is a +ev call (marginally so). But if the pusher can have a bigger pair with a reasonable frequency - then this is a call that will bust you far more often than it will double you through.

Surely the pusher could push with JJ-AA and AK. Hell - even TT could push hoping for a race.

I think u are absolutely incorrect to believe that you have positive equity from calling with 88-TT here. I dont think you can call with JJ either. QQ is about the borderline.

I really think that this is a fold for all of those mid pairs.

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 35.7753 % 35.58% 00.19% { 99 }
Hand 2: 64.2247 % 64.03% 00.19% { QQ+, AKs, AKo }

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 33.1678 % 32.97% 00.20% { 99 }
Hand 2: 66.8322 % 66.63% 00.20% { JJ+, AKs, AKo }

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 31.1892 % 30.98% 00.20% { 99 }
Hand 2: 68.8108 % 68.61% 00.20% { TT+, AKs, AKo }.


This is truly an atrocious call with mid pairs - and to believe anything else is madness. A call here with a mid pair means that 1/2 the time you are 50/50 and the other half you are destroyed. That is a horrible situation, and therefore you fold.