Sweating a Friend, he makes this fold. Opinions? - Page 6

flytrap · #51 05-12-2005, 04:49 AM

I don't think your second set is an 'extremely tight set of standards' at all. It's the bubble. Villain knows its the bubble, and he also knows that he has a good stack and so why should he mess with the 1 stack that busts him, when there are 3 other people at the table to steal from. If anything, your range of hands is too loose. And even if hero is a 55-45, or even 60-40, favorite, what's so exciting about that? The only reason he should be happy about getting his chips in considering the stack sizes is if he's not very good, or all his opponents are very good. I'm not so sure the Villain would be willing to risk his very healthy stack with 88 or kq. I'm expecting to see AK, AQ, or a bigger pair a majority of the time here. If, theoretically you're a favorite skill wise over the rest of the people in the tourney, and you have a big stack to back you, wouldn't you rather look for a better spot? Another thing that I don't believe was mentioned, is that with everyone on the bubble, hero can keep stealing. When someone busts out, he won't be as easily able to muscle his opponents.

JaBlue · #52 05-12-2005, 05:28 AM

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You are generally exactly opposite from the truth. You have so eloquently explained why extra aggression and a big ol' set of cahones is so profitable at or near bubble time. Because there are so many players out there that think like this.

Once I know you think this way, I'm restealing with impunity against you.

-Scott

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A big set of cahones is nice come bubble time, but that helps much more when you are the aggressor and not the caller.

Also, in the original post you had not mentioned that this guy was an active bubble exploiter. Since the vast majority of these players aren't, I assume that until proven otherwise. Think of it from his perspective: Why would he tangle with the only stack at the table that can bust him right before the final table, where the money is?

SoBeDude · #53 05-12-2005, 10:39 AM

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Maybe we can get MLG, Soss, Gavin, etc to jump in with their thoughts.

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It disturbs me to know your thoughts are about a well-built mostly naked man, swinging on a vine.

[img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

-Scott

SoBeDude · #54 05-12-2005, 10:42 AM

Also, in the original post you had not mentioned that this guy was an active bubble exploiter. Since the vast majority of these players aren't, I assume that until proven otherwise. Think of it from his perspective: Why would he tangle with the only stack at the table that can bust him right before the final table, where the money is?

Isn't this EXACTLY WHY the resteal is so effective here?

-Scott

schwza · #55 05-12-2005, 10:44 AM

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Why call when you're probably coin flip and only one spot away from the cash?

Unless you can put him on 22-99, I'd fold. No sense flipping vs. two overs.

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Scenario: Its 5-handed. You're in the BB w/ A9s. It folds to the SB who raises 3BB. Whats your move? Push I would hope.

Now change your hand to 99. What do you do? 88? AT? 77? How often do you think SB is on a steal? If he's on a steal, what range of hands do you need to re-steal?

That range should be very wide, otherwise you'll get walked over. TT is ahead of all but 4 hands. Its 5-handed. You raised 1st in from the SB. Please, for the love of all things holy, call.

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very well said.

SoBeDude · #56 05-12-2005, 10:47 AM

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It has nothing to do with the range of hands hero is stealing with, or opening with.

It has to do with the range of hands villain is pushing with.

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Doesn't one effect the other? If Hero is stealing here with a large range, then doesn't that increase the range villing will push with?

Nothing at a poker table occurs in a vacuum.

-Scott

SoBeDude · #57 05-12-2005, 10:50 AM

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I still don't understand why it is better to push with a range of hands that you think is better than hero's range of hands as opposed to call with the same better range and take a flop. Especially in position, on the bubble.

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Well if Hero is stealing with crap and you come over the top all-in, Hero is going to lay down a lot of his stealing hands giving you a nice-sized free pot, without the risk of him getting lucky and out-flopping you.

-Scott

SoBeDude · #58 05-12-2005, 10:54 AM

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there are a ton of reasons to push here when you are ahead of his range of hands.

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do you even have to be ahead of his range of hands here? Even if you were slightly behind, i think the FE would more than compensate for what you lack in your hand

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This is quite true. The other night at bubble time the button who had been playing pretty tight open-raised 3.5x the BB. from the SB, I pushed all-in with Q2o. BB mucked, and the button used half of his time bank before he folded. Out stacks were very close in size and we weren't short. Clearly he had a better hand. But I preyed upon his fear of busting at bubble time and scooped a nice pot.

-Scott

SoBeDude · #59 05-12-2005, 10:56 AM

There have got to be situations where you can reasonably assess that you're flipping a coin at best and pass on the gamble. Even 5 handed.

If he turned over AK on the table when he pushed, I'm still beating him in to the pot with my Tens.

-Scott

dmk · #60 05-12-2005, 10:59 AM

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If anything, your range of hands is too loose. And even if hero is a 55-45, or even 60-40, favorite, what's so exciting about that? The only reason he should be happy about getting his chips in considering the stack sizes is if he's not very good, or all his opponents are very good. I'm not so sure the Villain would be willing to risk his very healthy stack with 88 or kq. I'm expecting to see AK, AQ, or a bigger pair a majority of the time here. If, theoretically you're a favorite skill wise over the rest of the people in the tourney, and you have a big stack to back you, wouldn't you rather look for a better spot? Another thing that I don't believe was mentioned, is that with everyone on the bubble, hero can keep stealing. When someone busts out, he won't be as easily able to muscle his opponents.

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You're saying that when its 5-handed, folded to the SB who raises 3BB, you'll only play back from the BB if you have AK/AQ/JJ-AA?!?!

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Villain knows its the bubble, and he also knows that he has a good stack and so why should he mess with the 1 stack that busts him, when there are 3 other people at the table to steal from.

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If Villian knows that Hero thinks this, then Villian should basically be all-in everytime Hero enters the pot since apparently Hero will only call w/ AA/KK since Hero knows that Villian wouldn't be playing against Hero's stack w/out a huge hand.....

Obviously that's not the case. For some reason everyone is trying to look at this hand in a vaccuum...

When you take the fact that you have the 5th best hand in poker, the largest stack at the table, and a chance to essentially double up going into the final table (which puts you @ 1st or 2nd in chips most likely), how is this not a +EV situation?! I can't fathom how you can argue a fold given these circumstances. Not only that, but Hero doesn't even freakin bust if he loses this hand, he still has some chips. Not much obviously, but he's not busted.

For those advocating a fold - if you find yourself making some FTs but not being able to close the deal w/ a 1st place finish - here is one of your leaks. Stop playing like a pussy on the bubble.