How deep, before you fold AA, if ever? Am I just a pussy? Probably. - Page 6

Voltron87 · #51 05-09-2005, 08:12 PM

i think if you have AA, someone else has AA, and 6 or 7 people are all in with 22, 33, 44, 55 ,66 77,88, then AA is -EV.

ZeeJustin · #52 05-09-2005, 11:17 PM

Here's something that should make you think:

Unless you are getting up from the session in the next hour, you are probably more likely to lose your stack if you fold the aces, than you are if you get them all-in preflop.

This is of course assuming that the $1000 stack will have everyone but one or two players covered.

Chaostracize · #53 05-09-2005, 11:33 PM

Hm. You may want to run an ROR calculation on that... [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

Nottom · #54 05-09-2005, 11:58 PM

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It might be right to fold AA preflop in a tournament, if you are not shortstacked and close to the money and with a ton of players to the flop, because if you bust out u get nothing. For example if i had T20000 in chips,with the blinds at 250-500. You throw in a raise, of 3k and some1 pushes with like 25k more, and another person calls with abou the same stack ($25k) and you are one spot away from the money, you might consider folding because, one of the 2 would bust out and you would be in the money. This is STRICTLY tournament tho and an extreme case. I think the ICM might be helpful here. I dont know if I could throw aces here anyways, but it might not be the worst play ever.
This thinking of mine, may not be correct, as i dont play many tourneys. In a cash game tho, it is never right to fold AA preflop,as you are a huge fave and in a cash game, all you worry about is making the right play each hand.

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No, this would be terrible in a normal tourney. You need to win MTTs to make the serious cash and tripling up with AA is a good way to do that. If it was a satellite then a fold could be considered.

pzhon · #55 05-10-2005, 07:50 AM

By the Kelly Criterion, if you are an 82-18 favorite and there is no dead money, you should be happiest to call all-in for 64% of you bankroll. The time to walk away is when you have over 95% of your bankroll on the table. Fold only if you owe your stack to Teddy KGB.

Some people feel the Kelly Criterion, maximizing the expected logarithm of your bankroll, is too aggressive. However, it is a good baseline. If you don't follow some analogue, you are probably inconsistent in the risks you accept.

Most people who would argue for a fold, in cash games or tournaments, have no idea what they are talking about. Almost every "Fold AA preflop?" thread in the tournament forums is about a time someone was tempted to fold AA, but where it was correct by a lot to put the chips in according to the standard models. Often, the amount of expected prize money given up by folding AA exceeds the profit a good player expects to make over several tournaments.

thabadguy · #56 05-10-2005, 07:55 AM

As sure as sh*t.

technologic · #57 05-10-2005, 08:55 AM

what is this kelly criterion and what is it based on?

i think that based on different people's risk preference this number can vary.

jtr · #58 05-10-2005, 09:11 AM

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Mine involves Parker Posey, Gina Gershon and amputations. . .

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Thanks for sharing.

You sick little monkey.

nicky g · #59 05-10-2005, 09:29 AM

You don;t even have a big stack; with 100xBB your stack is farily standard sized. If you'd run up to a monster stack - like 1000xBB, I can see you might start to worry about calling an all in PF with AA. But if you're afraid of playing all-in preflop with the nuts with a moderate stack, you are playing way way way too high. You need to understand that you could perfectly easily lose your entire stack here and have done nothing wrong even if you did start to fold to major overbets with cards to come.

pzhon · #60 05-10-2005, 09:49 AM

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the Kelly Criterion, maximizing the expected logarithm of your bankroll,

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what is this kelly criterion and what is it based on?

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The Kelly Criterion is to maximize the expected logarithm of your bankroll. It is well-known to card-counters who want to take advantage of edges lower than 1% without going bankrupt. It assumes that you are indifferent to taking a fair coin-toss to double or halve your bankroll.

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i think that based on different people's risk preference this number can vary.

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Some people should fold AA if 80% of their bankroll is on the table, while others can stomach calling with 98% of their bankroll on the table. Neither of these is close to what the OP was talking about.

Very frequently, people don't use a consistent system for evaluating risks. They accept familiar risks while they reject less risky gambles that seem strange. This is inconsistent. There is room to decrease risk while increasing EV by taking the right risks. One of the gambles worth taking is calling all-in with AA. Even though many people seem to be confused about this situation, it's not close.