My buddy berated me for this hand.commnts pls on this major suckout

[Voltron87]

1. Easy fold preflop.
2. Harder fold on the flop. Straight up, you have odds to call, but that is assuming you have 8 clean outs. One or two of the aces are probably gone an someone might have a set. So I fold, but it's close.

[curtains]

No pokerraja, I still think calling on the flop is correct. It's definitely not safe to say the flop call is incorrect. There are even some cases where you will have about a 35-36% to win the hand (Like both opps having AQ).

[Voltron87]

IMO it's very close and the difference is negligible.

[Nottom]

[ QUOTE ]
Am I the only one that doesn't like this flop call?

My quick ICM analysis says this:
EV of folding: 0.0625
EV of calling and winning: 0.2008
EV of calling and losing: 0

To make a +EV play, Hero needs to win 31.125% of the time to make this call. That's equivalent to about 7.9 outs. With two all-ins in front of you, it seems hard to believe you've got 4 A's left to draw to. Your Kings are also very questionable outs. You might have 8 outs here, but it's pretty tough to be sure.

I'd play it safe since it's still early.

[/ QUOTE ]

I ran the numbers and came up with an ICM EV of 0.2316 if he wins the hand. (My fold number was the same)

This means he only needs to win 26% of the time, which makes it a pretty clear call.

[gumpzilla]

[ QUOTE ]

I ran the numbers and came up with an ICM EV of 0.2316 if he wins the hand. (My fold number was the same)


[/ QUOTE ]

Given how early it is and how small the blinds are, I'm inclined to think that chip EV is probably an acceptable way of looking at things here, and certainly easier in the heat of battle. From a chip EV perspective, this seems like a super-easy call. And barely anybody has been knocked out, so he's going to have to survive a good long time and get a little lucky at this point to hit the money, most likely.

Given that a major reason listed for playing at Party is $/hour, I also think that it's worth pointing out that this is almost certainly a + $/hour move. He either puts himself in good position to cash in this tournament, or busts out instead of lingering with a short stack that he will require at least some luck to boost and can immediately start another tournament where he figures to have more equity.

I would make this flop call 99% of the time; I would want to be pretty convinced that one of my opponents had the set and that I was likely to be able to survive a good long while with my short stack before I would fold here, and I start out relatively unconvinced of both things.

[adanthar]

The flop is a pretty clear call. There's probably an ace or two missing but you also have the backdoor flush draw, some low chance the K is good, etc. ICM does not factor in here due to the usual effect of having 455 vs. 2K chips later on that it never factors in; to be honest, after reading thread after thread with the ICM involved, I'm pretty sure that it's flawed enough that *any* close ICM decision should be a call based on that alone.

The PF call naturally sucks. However, there's a point at which stacks are deep enough so that this call is a good one, and at which calling 76s would be routine.

I think I would actually make it in a Stars SNG.