Marginal Hand #4 Playing a passive table - Page 6

grjr · #51 04-15-2005, 03:36 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Party Poker 0.5/1 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. UTG+2 posts a blind of $0.5.
1 fold, Hero calls, UTG+2 (poster) checks, MP1 calls, MP2 calls, 3 folds, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (6 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB bets, BB folds, Hero raises, UTG+2 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, SB calls.

Turn: (6 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG+2 calls, SB raises, Hero ??

C/r from the sb. That was a surprise. We have to just call here right?

[/ QUOTE ]
Jumping in on the turn action here...

Why the bet out? I don't think we have enough equity (with an obviously drawing hand) to bet out here. We have maybe 9 outs for the flush and maybe 8 for the straights, but none of those are full outs. If we count all 17, we'll win 17/46 = 37% of the time, but I really think we shouldn't count all of those. I like the 9 clubs better than I like the straight outs, but maybe I'm discounting too much.

[/ QUOTE ]

With the straight outs added to the flush outs (and maybe some jack outs) I thought it was a fairly normal bet on the turn. The c/r was a real surprise.

Does anyone else check the turn here?

Firefly · #52 04-15-2005, 03:46 PM

Some passive table you got going there...but i digress. With all those outs, i think we have atleast 33% equity here, so betting out is fine. Call the c/r, you don't want to push out UTG+2 and SB is indicating probally two pair/set.

DeathDonkey · #53 04-15-2005, 03:47 PM

This is where I will chime in to say you are exactly right and yet 22 is my single biggest losing hand :P

-DeathDonkey

Entity · #54 04-15-2005, 03:47 PM

Your turn bet is no good given little folding equity and only two opponents.

Rob

Entity · #55 04-15-2005, 03:48 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Some passive table you got going there...but i digress. With all those outs, i think we have atleast 33% equity here, so betting out is fine. Call the c/r, you don't want to push out UTG+2 and SB is indicating probally two pair/set.

[/ QUOTE ]

A bet is no good unless you have > 33% equity here, and you don't. You're around 2.2:1 to hit.

topspin · #56 04-15-2005, 03:52 PM

Others have commented about the flop raise and turn bet, so I won't harp on those as well. Instead I'll point out how your play so far is a good illustration of how much easier it is to navigate 22 in EP than J8s. That's a lot of chips that have been spewed on our way to a showdown already, on a table that we were originally confident of being able to outplay postflop ...

tor · #57 04-15-2005, 04:07 PM

*grunching*

Fold, right? Is this somehow a trick question?

MrWookie47 · #58 04-15-2005, 04:18 PM

I definitely fold this preflop. It may be borderline or just south of borderline for Entity and pure cash money for you, but any preflop call that's borderline at best for him is definitely -EV for me. I've come to see the merit in some of the other hands you've posted, but this one I respectfully disagree. I definitely appreciate you putting yourself out there like this and opening yourself up to some debate.

On the flop, is getting one or more cold callers more likely than three or more callers? It's close, given your description, but I think I'd call because of how much it'd suck to raise, see 4 folds and then a 3bet. Also, I check the turn here.

Entity · #59 04-15-2005, 04:19 PM

Guys,

Don't take my word as gospel here. I'm convinced it's a fold but I PM'd Nate tha' Great for some comments.

Josh (sthief09) said he'd fold too, and agreed with me that it's close. We'd limp J9s here.

Rob

tor · #60 04-15-2005, 04:24 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Does anyone else check the turn here?

[/ QUOTE ]

*grunching*

I like the turn bet for sure. So far, the SBs play reeks of 86s to me.