downswing, need confidence - Page 6

MattC · #51 03-03-2005, 04:43 PM

HEFAP recommended a similar line in this situation. You should go reread books, its been said several times that you want someone to draw on you here, the pot is small so its a mistake to them. Besides if villian is drawing he would probably check call the turn as he could fear a raise on the turn. His bet on the turn says his hand is made, remember this is a 3/6 player, they arent that tricky.

the only argument i can see to be made here is raising the turn instead of the river. i decided to wait til the river since the bb bet into me again on the turn and i felt he would do so again at the river.

saying you should never slowplay in this situation is like saying you should never limp aces utg if your raises arent getting any action.

chief444 · #52 03-03-2005, 04:50 PM

I'm honestly shocked at the amount of people who advocate raising the flop in this hand. I can see a turn raise but why everyone seems so concerned about raising early to win this measley little pot as opposed to a line that to me clearly has a higher expectation is just mind boggling.

MattC · #53 03-03-2005, 04:51 PM

i know =[.

crunchy1 · #54 03-03-2005, 04:51 PM

first you say:
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HEFAP recommended a similar line in this situation.

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then you say:
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remember this is a 3/6 player, they arent that tricky.

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One of these things is not like the other.

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You should go reread books, its been said several times that you want someone to draw on you here, the pot is small so its a mistake to them.

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I don't think that this is a mistake when they are being the aggressor in a HU pot.

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Besides if villian is drawing he would probably check call the turn as he could fear a raise on the turn. His bet on the turn says his hand is made,

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Which is way you should've raised the turn - because he'll call that and your river raise anyways.

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the only argument i can see to be made here is raising the turn instead of the river. i decided to wait til the river since the bb bet into me again on the turn and i felt he would do so again at the river.

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Regardless of whether or not he'll bet again I (a)don't like someone else being the aggressor in my pots and (b)am always making these weakies who tend to suck out on the river pay to see it.

chief444 · #55 03-03-2005, 04:56 PM

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I don't think that this is a mistake when they are being the aggressor in a HU pot.

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Sure it is. It doesn't matter whether he put the bet in first or last.

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Regardless of whether or not he'll bet again I (a)don't like someone else being the aggressor in my pots

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OK then. Personally I don't mind if it increases my expectation.

crunchy1 · #56 03-03-2005, 04:56 PM

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I'm honestly shocked at the amount of people who advocate raising the flop in this hand.

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ONLY in the following context:
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The other thing to consider here is that this appears to be a blind steal attempt and BB will often be thinking his K or Q is good. And he should be thinking that because they often will be good.

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If we're thinking along that line I then you'd have to raise the flop as BB may 3-bet or call and lead again on the turn (but we have no read on this player so it's hard to make that determination).

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And it's read specific but, I see a lot of stop'n'go now days. I would only raise if I thought he'd lead again on the turn. If he wouldn't lead again on the turn then you're right - wait until the turn to raise. But I still think waiting to the river is giving him too much opportunity.

MattC · #57 03-03-2005, 05:00 PM

if i raise he might fold too early, thats why i didnt. i agree tho maybe raising the turn was better but also notice with the line i took i lost the least amount of money possible
while also maximizing when im ahead.

crunchy1 · #58 03-03-2005, 05:02 PM

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if i raise he might fold too early, thats why i didnt. i agree tho maybe raising the turn was better but also notice with the line i took i lost the least amount of money possible
while also maximizing when im ahead.

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True enough - I'll give this line a shot tonight (if I ever even see AK *shrug*) and report back!

MattC · #59 03-03-2005, 05:04 PM

its gotta be perfect situation tho. when it looks like ur stealing and the blind bets into you and pot is small and its heads up.

Harv72b · #60 03-03-2005, 07:00 PM

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if i raise he might fold too early, thats why i didnt. i agree tho maybe raising the turn was better but also notice with the line i took i lost the least amount of money possible while also maximizing when im ahead.

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If you keep repeating this it might become true. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Assuming that we are always going to showdown HU with TPTK against an unknown (safe assumption), calling his river bet would have lost you the least amount of money possible. By raising you lost more. When you really are ahead on the river, he's probably going to check a worse hand to you, especially when that scare card shows up, so you lose a bet when ahead. In other words, this line neither minimized your loss when he beats you, nor maximized your winnings when you're ahead.

Assuming that the villian would fold the turn to a raise, yet would bet the river if only called on the turn, is applying a specific read to a player that you have no read on. You don't know if he's aggressive, you don't know if he's weak--you don't know if he'll fold AA to your turn raise or if he'll 3-bet with Q2. I'm sorry to be blunt, but play like this is only going to extend your downswing.

I can't hammer this in enough--your typical 3/6 player will not fold to a turn raise in a HU blind steal situation. Period. I don't care what he's been betting on the flop and turn, he will not fold. Why? Because if a typical player is betting, he believes that he has the best hand--that's the way most SS'ers play. When you raise you're saying that you have the best hand, but he doesn't trust that statement, and he's going to call your raise. He might check/fold the river unimproved with something like 2nd pair, but that's it--he's not folding the turn. And if he gets called to the river with 2nd pair, he's going to check/call there.

By waiting to pop your raise on the river, you are only gaining bets against a very specific type of player. You are breaking even or even losing bets against most SS players. Seeing as how you have no read on the villian in this hand, I'd just as soon assume that he's part of the 95% rather than the 5% minority. Please note as well that HPFAP repeatedly mentions player reads in the short-handed/HU section, and often recommends different courses of action for different types of players.

And, one final time, TPTK is not a great holding. Even assuming that you have the best hand on the flop, there are a lot of cards which can come to take that away from you. Save the fancy plays for when you flop a stronger hand, and you're up against a known, good, thinking opponent.