Hand to Talk About

[Kevin J]

Doesn't the appearance of this 3rd ace make it a little less likely that the bb is betting three aces? If so, shouldn't a lot more thought/caution be put into what he might be betting with? Again, I'd like a river raise more if the 3rd ace never showed up. I only like a river raise here if his opponent is a true pay-off artist.

I actually don't like agreeing with the non-river raise, because I don't want to look like I'm just siding with Mason. Although, maybe he'll say he played it wrong. But I doubt it. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[MicroBob]

If the opponent has AJ or JJ (or even 22) here AND he knows that Mason has a good A (probably is putting Mason on AK or AQ) then he is going to wait for the turn to bet at it KNOWING that Mason is going to raise right back at him.

In other words, instead of going for a C/R, he is essentially going for a 3-bet.

But Mason is going a level beyond that in realizing that the only way the opponent would bet out on the turn (hoping to 3-bet) KNOWING (or 'hoping'...whatever) that Mason would pop right back is if the opponent could, in fact, beat the strong A.


So Mason's read on this guy is that he is sharp enough to not get wacky with his A9o here and would only go for a turn 3-bet with a hand stronger than AK.

There's a good chance that the opponent could play AK this way...in which case there is no advantage to popping right back at him or calling down.
The chances that he would try this with AQ is slightly slimmer and the chances that he would try this with AJ, JJ or 22 is much higher.


That's my theory behind Mason's play anyway.


Will be VERY interested to read Mason's ideas on this hand.

[shaundeeb]

Thinks BB has AKos as well? The more I look at this hand the more I think thats a good chance its going to be a split. If mason raises and BB 3bets there would be a chop. It just makes sense with Ak once the 3rd ace hits hes afraid mason will check behind his big pair and the BB won't get value off his trips.

[jetsonsdogcanfly]

[ QUOTE ]
That said, the one thing that seems sure is that the big blind doesn't have a medium-strength hand. If he did, he would check and call. In this context, medium-strength hands include weak aces, since anybody holding a weak ace would have to be concerned about his kicker.

[/ QUOTE ]

Consider this simple line for a guy with a rag ace: He check/called the flop, maybe because he was concerned about his kicker. On the turn, if he has a weaker ace he is now concerned about Mason checking behind with KK, QQ.

This doesn't seem that unlikely to me. From the BB's perspective Ax is no longer a medium strength hand after the turn hits. When the board is paired, and then a third one hits on the turn, don't you think it's less likely your opponent has the case card? As a simple conditional probability that is correct thinking.

[Turning Stone Pro]

It's very confusing.

TSP

[bobbyi]

[ QUOTE ]
This looks exactly like your stop and go BB defense plan.

[/ QUOTE ]
I've never head of this plan. Sounds intriguing. Where is it from?

[fsuplayer]

if you had a J or PP here and you think mason has KQ, or a lower PP, you could lead in and hope he folds, or charge him for his 'overs' draw.

[skp]

[ QUOTE ]
Doesn't the appearance of this 3rd ace make it a little less likely that the bb is betting three aces?

[/ QUOTE ]

Sure. But from the bb's perspective, the appearance of the second ace makes it less likely that Mason has an Ace thereby enabling him to bet a hand like KJ. That bet has a dual purpose, Mason might fold QQ or he might call with TT.

overall, now and then, you are going to run into a player who bets out a strong hand like a full on the turn with a view to trying to snag 3 bets. But way more often than not, that turn bet is not a full house i.e. he would try to checkraise wit a full. Thus, Mason will usually be ahead. And as Mike l. points out, you don't have to worry too much about Mason's opponent not calling a raise. They find all kinds of reason to call. If they don't, then Mason should be thankful as he now has the license to raise on a multitude of other hands when he misses because after all, his opponent is prone to fold.

[DeucesUp]

I think William Jockusch and Microbob (others as well) probably captured Mason's thinking here pretty well. The question is not what hands will the BB call a raise with, but what hands is he betting out with on the turn and river in the first place. Clearly he's got to think that Mason is holding a big ace or JJ a decent amount of the time here, so it can be argued that he's got these hands beat (or is bluffing).

But I don't think this scenario quite holds up. From the BB's point of view, will Mason call this down with:

KK and QQ?
how about TT?
Does Mason raise in EP with KJs? QJs? 99? 88? Probably sometimes. If so, does he call down with these hands to pick off bluffs?


If the BB can say yes to even a few of these scenarios, then he's got a decent value bet with his A-rag suited (or whatever) given that he's only got the case ace (and JJ) to worry about. And he clearly has to be worried about Mason checking behind with these hands, so he's got to bet it.


Then the only remaining question is whether he'd call a raise with a hand worse than AK. I think the answer is clearly yes. If the guy lays down trip A's to a river raise here, then there's a paradox in this game which doesn't make sense. If someone will regularly laydown trip A's to a river raise, then it would become correct for players to make bluff river raises frequently. But if it is correct to bluff-raise frequently, then it can't be correct to lay down decent hands to river-raises. Thus the paradox.


So, in short, it seems reasonable the BB is making a value bet on the river with a worse A, and will certainly call a raise back. I think this more than makes up for the times the BB is ahead and calls (22?) or is ahead and 3-bets (AJ).

[Philuva]

[ QUOTE ]
I actually don't like agreeing with the non-river raise, because I don't want to look like I'm just siding with Mason. Although, maybe he'll say he played it wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

For a guy that makes most of his money from selling poker advice, the chanc of him admitting that he played a hand poorly on his own website is ZERO.