Early position KQ, Party 15/30

[bicyclekick]

IF you are a good postflop player KQo is absolutely profitable in ep. I don't have my db with me as I"m on a trip, but I had looked a bit ago and it was profitable...and it wasn't close.

To me it seems like a number of very solid players are showing positive expectations wiht this hand, so in reality it's your game that needs work, which may include removing KQo from EP, but please don't decree it's -EV to the rest of the world not to play it because you can't play it well enough.

[bobbyi]

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Also both hands has the same problems to be dominated as there are the same quantity of hands that dominate them.

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Eh? Every hand that dominates KQ (AK, AQ, AA, KK, QQ) also dominates AJ, but AJ is dominated by JJ and KQ is not.

[Peter_rus]

I knew someone points this:-) And it's right in terms of domination's definition, even though AJ has nearly the same equity against AK-AQ, AA-JJ as do KQo and it's nearly 1:3 in SD.

[TStoneMBD]

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Though KQo has less SD value as stupid folks who call cold A5s and catch flush draw on flop and call to river win against unimproved KQo but not unimproved AJo.

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nice analysis.

[hockey1]

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Probability that someone has AK, AQ,AA,KK,QQ on a table of 10 people when you're UTG with KQo is 28.77%

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I'm going to venture somewhere I rarely go -- mathwards -- But is your calculation correct? There are 52*51 possible hands = 2652, right? In light of the fact that you have a K and a Q in your hand, 12 of those hands are AK, 12 AQ, 6 AA, 3 KK and 3 QQ, right? So your KQ is in particularly rough shape against 44 of a possible 2652 hands. That works out to 1.4%. Multiply that by 9 (the number of opponents in a 10 handed game), and you get 12.6%. Where am I going wrong here?

[etizzle]

you cant add the probabilities of everyone having it individually. You must find the chance that everyone doesnt have it, and subtract that value from 1.

[Peter_rus]

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In light of the fact that you have a K and a Q in your hand, 12 of those hands are AK, 12 AQ, 6 AA, 3 KK and 3 QQ, right?

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Right.

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So your KQ is in particularly rough shape against 44 of a possible 2652 hands.

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Initial number of hands is 1326 as you don't bothering of order of your 2 cards. When you see your KQo the number of possible combinations is lowered to 1225. Than probability is P=1-(1-36/1225)^9=23.54 :-))))) Which shows that i have very low attention in the nights.

[hockey1]

Ah. Thanks much for setting me straight.

[bobbyi]

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That works out to 1.4%. Multiply that by 9 (the number of opponents in a 10 handed game), and you get 12.6%. Where am I going wrong here?

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It's already been pointed out that the multiplication is the problem, but I'll add a simple example that may help show why this isn't the right way to do the math:
Suppose six people each roll a standard six-sided. The probability for any single person of rolling a six is 1/6. If multiplication was the way to go here, we would say that the chance that any of the six people rolls a six is 1/6 multiplied by 6, which gives 1 (or 100%). But of course, it is possible for no one to roll a six. The actual probabilty is lower than what you get my multiplying because you are double-counting the times when two people roll a six, triple-counting the times when three people roll a six, etc.

[berya]

Damn, all these guys playing KQo early and making money. I thought it was not playable in the first two positions. No wonder my VP% is so low. Just found Abdul's old pos ev page and if I'm seeing it right he advocates folding the hand in the first 3 positions. I know in my limited sample whenever I play it early I'm loosing money. So it's either muck the hand for me or as the saying goes "Play better" [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]