Which play is worse?

[skp]

If the flop comes 844 rainbow, I will be more than happy to checkraise and take my chances of being drawn out on.

You say that even if I bet and the PFR raises the flop, guys are going to call two cold. You are right about that. So, if I knew that the PFR would raise, I would bet and then 3 bet. But the point is that the PFR may not raise my bet with say AK (but still be more willing to bet it if I check). So, I will go for the checkraise and if I get drawn out by 76, or a backdoor flush or 55, so be it.

In any case, it's not as if you have less chance of being drawn out on when you have the button so that is not a reason to favor the button scenario over the bb scenario

In short, I have thought throught it.

In short(er), it's 19:1 vs. 9:1. That's my story and I am sticking to it.

[Senor Choppy]

[ QUOTE ]
"FWIW, I would say that sims for unraised pots with each player having the same postflop profile are remarkably accurate for determining positional and starting hand values."

Then do that one and solve for positions. Thanks!

[/ QUOTE ]

You didn't answer my question about various parameters, but I went ahead and ran 3 sims.

I made all players postflop play the same. For anyone that owns TTH, they all play like Brett Maverick postflop (he's one of the best players in TTH for those without). Blinds of 25/50, 3 raise cap, 1 million hands of each. Preflop, sim #1 has UTG raising, and all other positions calling, so 10 players to the flop for 2 bets with entirely random hands, except the bb would has 94o. Sim #2 has everyone limping with random hands except the button who has 94o. Sim #3 has everyone limping with random hands except the button who raises with 94o and both blinds calling.

Results for sim #1: -$29.56/hand.
Results for sim #2: -$63.40/hand (-$13.40 not counting the blind).
Results for sim #3: -$57.33/hand

Nothing really unexpected here. Calling a raise in the big blind is bad, but calling on the button with 10 small bets less in the pot is more than twice as bad, and raising on the button with it is 4x as bad in terms of EV.

[Gabe]

in the bb you make $150 more if a miracle happens. on the button or the bb you pretty much need a miracle either way. your position would have to net you like an extra bet from five people on the river to equal it. maybe you could, if another miracle happened. basically, you need a miracle-miracle parlay to make the button play good as a simple bb miracle.

[mike l.]

"on the button or the bb you pretty much need a miracle either way."

see you and skp are only thinking of the times you win, how much more you make in the bloated pot bb scenario.

im thinking of how much ill save by having the button and flopping something less spectacular than trip 4s (which we all can see is better than trip 9s right?).

[Tommy Angelo]

MMMMM,

You have been mistating some things so I made a couple corrections [in brackets] in your text before replying.

"If your personal results for a given hand [with ten players seeing the flop, and it costs me one bet to see the flop] at full table $20-40 are actually $300 [$100] different for the big blind position compared to the button position, then something very strange is going on...strange as in alternate universe kind of strange, IMO."

I'm okay with alternate universe.

"That's why I say either your estimate is way off or you must play the blinds atrociously."

Now hold on a sec here. What happened to your "something very strange is going on" explanation? I like that one. And you crossed it off the list already!

"Since I find it hard to believe ..."

::: yawn :::


Tommy

[Senor Choppy]

The button is not some magic bullet for saving money in 10-handed pots. See the above sims.

[skp]

From a bets saved perspective, draw me a scenario whereby you lose fewer bets from the button than in the bb given that the PFR is UTG.

In any event, there is no way that you lose 10 small bets more from the bb than from the button which is what will need to happen to make up for the 19:1 vs. 9:1 preflop difference.

[MMMMMM]

The difference is between positions is $300 according to your estimates, of which $200 is offset by the extra bets in the contrived example. Just so we are clear on that.

I can't imagine what could be going on that strangely to make that much of a difference. Plus it seems to fly in the face of the basic math of the thing (and now in the face of SenorChoppy's simulations as well).

So if there is something strange going on...which to some extent I don't doubt (I only doubt that it has nearly the magnitude of effect you estimate)...I would be interested in exploring that further.

One "strange" thing that might be going on is that your opponents play worse against you when you are on the button, and better against you when you are in the blind. However the hand in this contrived example is practically reduced to showdown poker, so I don't see that effect making a whale of a difference.

Even when you are playing short-handed, and the value of control and aggression are magnified, I don't see having position as being worth 7.5 BB in a hand. Again, good position is theoretically only worth some fraction of the blinds. It may be worth more depending on how terrible your opponents are. How terrible would they have to be, for it to be worth many times its expected theoretical value? The problem with this line of reasoning is that if they are that god-awfully bad relative to you, they will also play you fairly badly when you are in the blind. Therefore the spread betwen your results of button and blind still ought not to be that immense. And again, if it were that immense, it would suggest that you could make hundreds per hour simply by folding nearly every blind and playing nearly every button. That not being the case, though, I think there is something rotten in estimate-land.

There was another question I was going to ask based on an earlier post of yours in this thread, but I'd rather not explore new waters or muddy old before this is delved a bit more.

[danderso8]

[ QUOTE ]
Preflop, sim #1 has UTG raising, and all other positions calling, so 10 players to the flop for 2 bets with entirely random hands, except the bb would has 94o. Sim #2 has everyone limping with random hands except the button who has 94o. Sim #3 has everyone limping with random hands except the button who raises with 94o and both blinds calling.

Results for sim #1: -$29.56/hand.
Results for sim #2: -$63.40/hand (-$13.40 not counting the blind).
Results for sim #3: -$57.33/hand


[/ QUOTE ]

I don't understand...isn't the sim where the blind should count the first one? If so, aren't you showing a profit of $20.44 for calling from there (after considering that the blind would be dead if you don't call)? Or did you get the descriptions backwards?

--dan

[mike l.]

"draw me a scenario'

this is sort of a cop out but hey it's friday afternoon so ill allow myself a cop out.

i just jumped in and posted my response on here and started replying to it. but i never looked at what tommy or anyone else had to say above. and now for the first time im looking at what tommy said, stuff about the button being worth mega extra sbs for him and shakey made hands that will get beat fairly often vs. drawing hands and strong made hands. so my thought process is on the same track as his **. and yours is not.

so there.





**(granted there are big differences, namely he is smart and im dumb, he is a good player and i am not, etc).