total unfluffableness

[skp]

Well, there have been times that I thought I was 100% sure about something (both in poker and in life) only to find out that I was wrong.

....anyway, I get your point. Thanks for that.

[Boris]

Tell me again how your fold was dumb?

[skp]

Pot odds. Against an unknown opponent on Party, it's not right to simply assume that I must have been counterfeited. I most likely was counterfeited but the odds were there for me to call (I don't remember all of the details of the betting but I do remember thinking seconds after I folded that it was an incorect fold).

[James282]

It was dumb because he should have raised and made the other guy muck his T3.
-James

[Tommy Angelo]

"This will be my summation, sort of like a closing argument by a lawyer."

Cool. I'll be happy to go last. :-)

"Then I'll *probably* give up. But I'm not *certain* ."

Well then in the meantime while you decide, consider this.

I'm seeing two parts to this thread now.

One issue is whether or not my fold of the AK was correct. On that I'm not interested in your opinion or anyone else's.

What I am interested in is your opinion on the second thing, which is:

Is it possible that my fold of the AK was correct?

In other words, are you saying that my fold was always incorrect no matter who was in the big blind?

If your answer is that you do think it is possible that my fold was correct, and that similar folds in similar situations could possible ever be correct even once for other players as well, then I'll consider the issue to be entirely resolved.

Otherwise, I'm afraid it's your turn. :-)

Tommy

[skp]

Suppose an eccentric millionaire is at the table. Before the river card is dealt, he whispers to you and you alone "boy, I sure had a lot of fun watching you play this hand. I gotta go right after this but just to thank you for the pleasure you provided me, I am going to give $5,000 to the winner of this pot. Good luck".

The river card is then dealt and your opponent (in exactly the same way) slides in 8 chips into the pot.

Would you have called?

If the answer in "no", then the issue is resolved.

If the answer is "yes", it simply means that the decision to call is always about pot odds in conjunction with your assessment of your chances of holding the best hand and that you were not 100% sure that you had the worse hand.

You are simply saying that there are spots where 22-1 is not enough and this is one of them. Mike l. says that too. I can buy that. But to that, I simply point out that you are operating with a very small margin of error. If you can confirm that, then I too would consider the issue resolved.

Come to think of it, I don't even need the contrived eccentric rich guy scenario to illustrate the point. Suppose your opponent made a 50 cent all in bet on the river. Would you have called? Again, if the answer is "no", the issue is indeed entirely resolved.

[Rick Nebiolo]

[ QUOTE ]
Is it possible that my fold of the AK was correct?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes. But it is impossible to be 100% certain. And to be correct on this you would need to be at least 97% certain with less than a one or two percent margin of error.

I just went for a long walk with my best friend but before I did I printed out your initial post. My friend is a guy who has slaughtered the middle limit holdem games for 17 years. He is a day player who often plays the same casino and against the same players so meta-game matters as well as knowing his opponents.

First I told him that it was Tommy Angelo heads up on the river (he's heard your music and read some of your posts so he has some idea how you play) and read him exactly the following passage:

"$20-40 at LC. UTG raised, next player called, next player folded, I reraised with AK, all folded around to the BB who called, UTG capped it, the coldcaller called, I called, the BB called, and four of us saw the flop which was A-A-6 with two diamonds.

It went check check check to me and I bet. BB called, UTG check-raised, other guy folded, I made it three bets, BB called, and UTG called. Threeway now. The turn was a blank. The BB checked, UTG checked, I bet, BB called, UTG checkraised, I made it three bets, BB called two cold, and UTG folded KK face up. Headsup now.

The river was a diamond and the BB bet out."

In the absence of other information regarding this opponent I asked him what where the chances Tommy was beat. His answer was that Tommy's opponent would have a flush about 80% of the time, and maybe the blank filled him 5% of the time.

Then I asked "What if you knew this was a guy who would never bluff in this spot, would you still call?" He said never is he that sure, but even if the guy only bluffs one time in a hundred he would call. He said: "Sometimes I'm the player out on a limb with the draw or with an underpair such as QQ putting the move on KK. I don't want to be bet into on the river in a similar spot where I may end up folding a bigger draw."

Otherwise, read skp. We are starting to agree again [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].

Off to the movies. More later maybe [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

~ Rick

[mike l.]

dude are you kidding? you dont think tommy knows all that shiit already? i mean seriously rick.

if tommy says the laydown was correct against that guy at that moment the laydown was correct. he can see what they have man, arent you able to do that sometimes? dude's been seeing people's cards for a long time now, he's not worried about 22 to 1 or one million to one or whatever you want to say he should be worried about. he's way beyond needing to make sure like you or me or skp still have to do sometimes (too often).

there. problem solved.

(and if you think i should hate folding hands in big pots youre right and i do. just go look at my drag down fights over this with a cocky newer poster named nightwish in a few recent threads. where were you and skp when i was battling with him??)

for the last time the only thing in this post to critique was the fact tommy opened his mouth. big mistake for him. anti-mojo.

[felson]

I don't understand why Tommy didn't stop the dealer from turning over his cards.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
but even if the guy only bluffs one time in a hundred he would call.

[/ QUOTE ]