Challanging Ed Miller's Criticism of Lee Jones

[Leavenfish]

I do not know how to include a link...but this is concerning Ed's "Critiques" of Lee Jones' book found at: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...mp;o=&vc=1

(Quote)
1. Page 67: You have pocket kings in a 3-way pot. The flop comes ace-high. He recommends that you bet on the flop (typically good advice). But then he says that if someone calls, the caller probably has at least an ace or better. In low-limit games, that simply isn't true. Yes, someone will sometimes have an ace, but often they will call with any pair or any draw. You can't assume someone has an ace simply because it exists on the flop and he called your bet. This is really a point of critical importance for low-limit games. (Quote)

First, The fundamental thought throughout your book is that at the lower limits, people stay in with I’ll equipped hands (Ace/little for example) and follow them to the river far too often…hence you can make money against them with proper play. Indeed, this is the underlying thought of nearly all books in regards to the lower limits.

I find TWO problems with your criticism cited above in regards to Lee’s admonition that if someone calls, the caller probably has at least an ace or better:

ONE: I simply do not see how your specifying that, “In low-limit games, that simply isn’t true” can be correct. The odds of someone being dealt an Ace in any 10 handed game—regardless of the limit you are playing at—are exactly the same and I believe that is what, close to 80%?

TWO: Given that the odds are about 80%, AND given the FACT that many more people play Ace + any card at the lower limits and at any position (I know this from Party Poker all too well)…well, that does tend to indicate that indeed someone may well have you beat at that point. Yes? And this doesn’t even include the small percentage of time that one of your opponents has pocket aces….

I find the conclusion inescapable that indeed it is probable (CERTAINLY in comparision to higher limits) that someone was dealt at least an Ace in the pocket and your “sometimes” remark is demonstrably untrue while Lee's "probably" is much more likely to be correct. I do not know about you but I would tend to look at anything close to 80% as indeed “probable”. Furthermore, if I remember Ken Warren correctly, if an individual is dealt an Ace preflop, there is a 75% chance that another player at a 10 handed table will also have been dealt an Ace pre-flop…so, your KK may well be the third best hand after the flop in question!

I am sorry, but I do not see how in the given example where an Ace has in fact appeared on the flop, that you could criticize Lee Jones for his observation, which I believe is simply correct. Granted, in the example, only 3 of the 10 players see the flop…but, we already know that at Low Limit Holdem, it may well be that you with your two Kings are facing one if not two people with Aces…and you are behind in the hand.