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#51
07-12-2005, 02:23 PM
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Re: Maybe Silly but Good Hypothetical Question
[ QUOTE ]
Being the hypnotized person is +EV. [/ QUOTE ] That's ridiculous. If you're right, then train yourself to believe your opponents always have JQd. Post again in a week and let me know how you've done. As for your previous paragraph, you don't know if an opponent has 22 or KK for sure, except he probably woulda raised with KK vs your QJ preflop. So fold. And kick his butt on every hand you do have an advantage. I don't know if the winrate is possible to calculate, in part because the game would slow down considerably. But I would see something very close to 100% of the flops. 
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#52
07-12-2005, 02:43 PM
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Re: Maybe Silly but Good Hypothetical Question
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Being the hypnotized person is +EV. [/ QUOTE ] That's ridiculous. If you're right, then train yourself to believe your opponents always have JQd. Post again in a week and let me know how you've done. [/ QUOTE ] This is hypothetical. Training myself to think the guy has QdJd is insignificant. What I need to do is convince the other guy that I have been hypnotized to think he has QdJd. That's the trick. It takes away his ability to gain information, and therefore he can't play well at all. No matter what he bets, he can only learn if I can beat QdJd or not. The amount of times this is an advantage to him occurs a lot less times than when he has no idea what i have at all, and consequently has no idea where he is. This is going to force him to either fold and wait for a better opportunity (like when he flops the nuts), or play and risk his stack against a guy who could have anything. On the other hand, the hypnotized guy is forced to only play hands better than QdJd, and play them strong (TAG baby!!!!). Erby [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
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#53
07-12-2005, 02:54 PM
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Re: Maybe Silly but Good Hypothetical Question
[ QUOTE ]
you don't know if an opponent has 22 or KK for sure, except he probably woulda raised with KK vs your QJ preflop. So fold. And kick his butt on every hand you do have an advantage. [/ QUOTE ] If you had 22 and you "knew" a guy had QJ, wouldn't you also raise preflop? You have the advantage at that point, you're hand isn't strong enough to give the guy free cards to spike a Q or a J...I think you'd be more likely to see a raise from 22. Why would KK raise you preflop? So you could fold and he'd pick up your blinds???? Or would he want you to catch a Q, think you've got a winner, and get more money? If I was at a table where someone would raise PF with KK when they know I had QJ, i would only have one thing to say "YUM!!!!" cuz these guys are terrible. I think more realistically this whole game would turn into a crap shoot, cuz the hypnotized guy would play nearly anything cuz he "thinks" you have QdJd, and you'll be doing the same thing cuz you "know" what he thinks you have... If you're up against a "good player" as it said in the original post that's -EV. If you can turn it into a crapshoot and take away his advantage of being a good player, that's +EV for the hypnotized donk. I'm not saying that I would want to be hypnotized in my home game, but if Sklansky and Mason and I got together to play a game...i think being hypnotized and turning it into a crap shoot is +EV compared to taking the top dawgs down straight... Hmm...Interesting... Erby [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
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#54
07-12-2005, 04:01 PM
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Re: Maybe Silly but Good Hypothetical Question
[ QUOTE ]
Thinking about it more, I'm going to make the most radical statement ever. Being the hypnotized person is +EV. Before anyone starts flaming away, let me explain. The hypnotized person has no qualms with laying down anything that can't beat QdJd, so he won't lose much at all when those come on the board. He'll fold immediately. If a diamond draw comes out, he'll bet trying to make you pay for the draw (does he have a pair? does he know you don't? does he have AdKd-in which case once the flush hits you still can't take down the pot? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] You just DON'T KNOW!!!!) When the board doesn't help the QdJd, he might actually have an even bigger advantage. He will bet whether he has the other person beat or not, as long as he can beat QdJd. What has effectively happened is that this has turned him into a TAG...and on the other hand, since you have lost all ability to read hands, and know that you could be up against anything from K high to a straight flush, you can't feel comfortable putting in too many bets with anything much less than the nuts...AWWW CRAP!!!! He's reduced you to a loose passive call station (remember that you all think that you should be playing tons of hands now). What's more, you're convinced that you have the upperhand because you've been given information. However, the information given (that the guy can beat QdJd) is worth less than the information you can get from bets playing it straight and thinking about raises, calls, etc... so this is worse accoridng to FTP... Summing up, i'd rather be a TAG playing on false pretenses... than a Loose passive call station looking to flop close to the nuts with every hand (i've seen what happens to those guys at the Taj...and it's not pretty)... FLAME AWAY!!! Erby [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] [/ QUOTE ] Absolutely absurd. Yes, you might not win every big pot. Do you win every big pot you play now? Of course not. The correct way to play is to jam every flop that you get a pair, but no A, K, Q, or J flops (unless of course, you have 2 pair or better). Your opponent will probably just have A or K high, thinking he's ahead. You might be wrong, but you'll end up winning at least 2 out of 3. Another interesting thing is: you can probably narrow your opponents range of hands based on his preflop play. If you limp in, and he raises you, he almost definitely has AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AK, AQ, AJ, KQ or KJ. Basically, any hand that has QJ badly beaten. If he just calls, you're probably facing a hand that's not far ahead of you. Given this information your play on the flop basically turns into a math problem.
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#57
07-12-2005, 07:53 PM
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Re: Maybe Silly but Good Hypothetical Question
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I think David meant that we were playing 10-20 limit, no no limit, It would be a bit crazy if it was NL. [/ QUOTE ] I think you were responding to my post. I was definitely talking about Limit 10/20, but I was assuming that when it gets heads-up, there would be no cap to the number of raises. So my point was simply that at some point you will be holding the nuts heads-up against someone that can beat QJd. At that point you will go to the felt with him (one bet at a time). Thus, your win rate is highly dependent on the stack sizes, even though this is a limit game. -RMJ
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#58
07-12-2005, 10:23 PM
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Re: Maybe Silly but Good Hypothetical Question
[ QUOTE ]
This is hypothetical. Training myself to think the guy has QdJd is insignificant. What I need to do is convince the other guy that I have been hypnotized to think he has QdJd. That's the trick. It takes away his ability to gain information, and therefore he can't play well at all. [/ QUOTE ] This doesn't have to be hypothetical. I'd be willing to sit down at a private table with you and do this experiment, if you want. You just play every hand as if I have QJd and I'll play according to the knowledge that this is what you're doing. There is no way you can win this game, so if you want, we can do it small, at .5/1. PM me if you're truly interested and we can set something up with a post to forum for people who want to sweat it.
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#59
07-13-2005, 12:06 AM
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Re: Maybe Silly but Good Hypothetical Question
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] This is hypothetical. Training myself to think the guy has QdJd is insignificant. What I need to do is convince the other guy that I have been hypnotized to think he has QdJd. That's the trick. It takes away his ability to gain information, and therefore he can't play well at all. [/ QUOTE ] This doesn't have to be hypothetical. I'd be willing to sit down at a private table with you and do this experiment, if you want. You just play every hand as if I have QJd and I'll play according to the knowledge that this is what you're doing. There is no way you can win this game, so if you want, we can do it small, at .5/1. PM me if you're truly interested and we can set something up with a post to forum for people who want to sweat it. [/ QUOTE ] Even at .5/1, heads up, online, he could lose quite a bit of money in a short time.
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#60
07-13-2005, 12:09 AM
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Re: Maybe Silly but Good Hypothetical Question
[ QUOTE ]
fair enough, then what are your preflop standards? [/ QUOTE ] 1. Any hand that has no Q or J. 2. No QJ hand, suited or unsuited. 3. Probably every hand that has a Q or a J but not both. Some might be borderline, and I might fold these if they are both diamonds. The 1st category accounts for over 71% of all hands though, and each would be very profitable.
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