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#52
10-31-2004, 06:02 PM
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Re: Party 3/6: Summoning my inner calling station....
[ QUOTE ]
huh? that would be a good reason to try a bluff,youre saying you would try a bluff if it was 10sbs? no way is anyone folding then [/ QUOTE ] I never said I would bluff if the pot was bigger. You made that assumption. I'm only saying that it is almost never I good idea to bluff in a small stakes game when it is a multiway pot. I could think about it if the pot was decent sized and nobody showed any agression the whole way through. I'm just using the TOP idea about bluffing that it has to work 1 in 10 times in a 10 sb pot and 1 in 4.33 times in this 4.33sb pot. It is a higher risk reward situation. But I agree with you that the bigger the pot the less likely the bluff will work. That is way you'll very rarely come into a situation where a bluff will be profitable multiway in a small stakes game. 
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#53
10-31-2004, 06:07 PM
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Re: Party 3/6: Summoning my inner calling station....
[ QUOTE ]
Betting this flop is a good play because the BB is likely to fold, so that means for it to be profitable I need 2 players to fold one if 4 times. [/ QUOTE ] I reject your assertion that BB is likely to fold. As a free play, he is the player most likely to have made contact with this flop. His poor position also makes him most likely to have checked a fair hand. This is an easy flop for loose players to call because almost any two cards will pass for six outs. Your odds of successfully bluffing three players are poor. You are also unlikely to improve your outs by betting. Without the button you often semibluff because the alternative is checkfolding your outs. All you need is for your combined equity from bluffing and outs to be positive. That's not the case here. Checking has a lot of EV. You need to show that betting is even better.
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#55
10-31-2004, 06:09 PM
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Re: Party 3/6: Summoning my inner calling station....
[ QUOTE ]
I reject your assertion that BB is likely to fold. As a free play, he is the player most likely to have made contact with this flop. His poor position also makes him most likely to have checked a fair hand. [/ QUOTE ] Wait, so because he was BB he has trips all of the sudden? If you think he'll call a flop bet here more often than not you are simply wrong.
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#56
10-31-2004, 06:10 PM
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Re: Party 3/6: Summoning my inner calling station....
[ QUOTE ]
I thought I had a 25% chance of taking down this flop right here.. [/ QUOTE ] EXACTLY. I don't see why this sounds so crazy to everyone. Plus, you don't need to take it down 25% even because you have outs if you're called.
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#57
10-31-2004, 06:16 PM
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Re: Party 3/6: Summoning my inner calling station....
I guess, actually I think itīs close with no info about the players. With the board that uncorninated I think you may pick it up or improve often enough.
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#58
10-31-2004, 06:18 PM
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Re: Party 3/6: Summoning my inner calling station....
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I thought I had a 25% chance of taking down this flop right here.. [/ QUOTE ] EXACTLY. I don't see why this sounds so crazy to everyone. Plus, you don't need to take it down 25% even because you have outs if you're called. [/ QUOTE ] If you bet this flop and had one caller. What's your action on the turn if you miss?
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#59
10-31-2004, 06:20 PM
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Re: Party 3/6: Summoning my inner calling station....
[ QUOTE ]
Wait, so because he was BB he has trips all of the sudden? If you think he'll call a flop bet here more often than not you are simply wrong. [/ QUOTE ] I didn't say that. You said: [ QUOTE ] Betting this flop is a good play because the BB is likely to fold, so that means for it to be profitable I need 2 players to fold one if 4 times. [/ QUOTE ] You implied that BB was so likely to fold that you could just ignore him and treat this as a bluff against two opponents. That isn't true. You have no valid reason to single out BB as a sure thing. He's at least as dangerous as your other two opponents.
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#60
10-31-2004, 06:26 PM
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Re: Party 3/6: Summoning my inner calling station....
[ QUOTE ]
As difficult as it is for some people here to believe, I thought I had a 25% chance of taking down this flop right here [/ QUOTE ] A 25% chance of bluffing three players means that there is a 63% chance of each individual player folding.
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