Interesting Hand from WPT Aruba

[Shoe]

Unfortunately I don't have much to add, but I am interested to hear the results. I was in a similar hand at last year's aruba tournament, except I was the one who made the accidental raise.

However, since he only called preflop, that would have me worried. Did he decide to get tricky with a monster? Either way, I think you made the right move, he is trying to steal here more times than not.

[locutus2002]

I'm sure your chips would leave skid marks on the table if you were in the SB or MP1.

[illegit]

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I don't like the play, I don't think its EV+ and consequently there is no reason for hero to risk his chips at this early point, or spend his tight image.

Here is my simplified reasoning based on the premise that SB and MP1 can see that MP3 and CO are putting moves on.

I think its too incredible for MP3 or CO to have a big hand and to flat call the first time and then make substantial raises: especially the push by CO. I don't think it takes a rocket scientist to see this, and I think both SB and MP1 will call with TT++, AQ++. (~60 hands)

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I don't think anyone disagrees that this range is likely to call. The point is that a great majority of this range is unlikely to exist given the play up to this point. For example, it's highly unlikely SB would flatcall (he didn't flatcall but he intended to) with AA-QQ, it's similarly unlikely that MP1 would just call the re-raise with any of these hands (esp. since it's obvious that SB didn't intend to raise), and MP3 would have re-raised with these holdings the first time around. This is +EV against the range that would call us, AND is likely to be out i.e. not TT+, AQ+.

[FoxwoodsFiend]

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Did you consider betting a significant amount (but less than all in)?

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Yes, briefly. If I have one of the legit hands mentioned above though, I'm definately gonna push them. Anything else just seems suspicious.

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I might be misunderstanding you, but it seems like you're saying that when you have AA-QQ making a smaller raise than all-in is too suspicious and people will often fold.

Doesn't that make this a perfect opportunity to make such a raise, assuming that people don't know that you wouldn't do this with AA-QQ because it's too suspicious?

[FoxwoodsFiend]

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The only real drawback would be if you got called, won the hand (which is not as unlikely as some seem to assume) and then had to stay at the table for awhile. You'd have to adjust your game to your radically changed image and that would not be easy

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Whereas most people would assume that doubling up would be the best outcome of an all-in...I believe you slightly overemphasize meta-game considerations.

[locutus2002]

These 18 hands AA-QQ will not substantially affect my crude calculations.

EV Neutral, to which I would add that if its EV neutral with so much dead money in the pot, then its really not a good play.

The move is great only if players will fold, and my uncontested number is 20%. The rest is a crapshoot where hero has the worst of it, but an overlay.

[gergery]

If I’m Tricky MP3 Guy, here’s what’s going thru my head:
“I put you on AT-A7s, 88-44, and perhaps some QJ, J9s, 87s type hands. I think you raise the first time around with AA-JJ/AK so I rule those out. I don’t think you take so long to push in with AQ/AJ or TT/99 type hands that might have given respect on the first go round. But you are a tight player, so you’d have folded complete crap the first time around. You likely saw SB do his weird thing, and you know I’m capable of making a play for the pot here, so you could certainly be doing this with a wider range of hands. On balance I figure you for something like 77, A9s or QJs. I must call 7,650 to win ~13,550, so I’m getting almost 1.8 to 1. Given your hand range, I think I need to call with most hands here, especially since I’ll still have 4k in chips if I lose which is plenty of play. On the one hand, I’ve been able to steal and run over the table to get chips. On the other hand, if I fold this now, maybe others play back at me”

Based on that, I think he calls you with 98s+, J9s+, A8+. So what does he have? I’d give him the same range I give you and expect to see A7s, 66 or T9s, and I’d expect a call here ~60% of the time from this type of player

Note: I've never played tourneys this big
--greg

[West]

As you say, I don't think Zee can reasonably expect MP3 to put him on a big pair. But a hand like 99 or TT, sure, and I think he is mindful of the fact that many of the hands MP3 is likely to have (mid to low pairs, suited connectors) are way behind 99 or TT......

[West]

Wow, do you really think he puts ZJ on that range of hands without knowing anything about him? Given that he's seen him play just a single hand where he limped and folded to a reraise? You don't think a tight player might take some time before deciding to push with TT or 99 there?

I do agree that one thing that is problematic here with regards to fold equity is the fact that MP3 still has a not insignificant amount of chips left if he calls and loses.

[West]

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#2 He puts in the third raise preflop but it doesn't seem to be enough to shut out his opposition, he seems content to let them come along for 2150 preflop and see what happens.

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Good point, although if he views ZJ as being as tight as he has played so far, maybe he thinks it's at least highly likely that he will at minimum get rid of him and be able to play the hand with position if he is called at all. And if he is reading the SB and MP1 as ZJ is, he may believe his chances of taking the pot down preflop to actually be pretty good. Given how aggressive he apparently is, and the fact that he at least has ZJ and MP1 outchipped significantly, I think we can still safely say that he probably doesn't have a big hand.