$30+3 - Very difficult bubble hand

[Scuba Chuck]

Prize Structure Analysis (ICM)

Fold, and BB folds = 26.5% of the equity prize pool
Fold, and BB calls and loses = 28.7% of the equity prize pool.
Fold, and BB calls and wins = 23.2%
If we assume BB folds 30% of the time, and that he wins 30% of the time, then:
Folding = (.3)(.265)+(.7)(.7)(.287)+(.7)(.3)(.232)= .26885
Folding = 26.9% of the equity prize pool

Pushing, and UTG+BB fold = 31.2%
Pushing, and BB folds, UTG calls and you win = 36.6%
Using your assumptions:
UTG calls 40-60% of the time. I'll use 60% for this analysis.
Hand range is something like AJ+, 77+, KQs when he calls.
AKo is a 49% dog to the hand range above

For extreme simplicity sake, I will assume BB will fold all times (which is a very wrong assumption, but makes my math easier):
Pushing = (.4)(.312)+(.6)(.49)(.366) = .2324
Pushing = 23.24%

If you agree with most of my above assumptions, the math actually says this is a fold. What are your thoughts?

[Scuba Chuck]

Just for fun, let's assume he calls 40% of the time instead of 60%.

Pushing = (.6)(.312)+(.4)(.49)(.366) = .2589
Pushing = 25.9%

Remember:
Folding = 26.9% of the equity prize pool

The math still says this is a fold.

[Seadood228]

Without reading the responses, I prefer pushing to folding, and folding to calling.

I'm not a huge fan of calling to "hit a flop" with so few chips behind. If you put him on a smallish pair, then it'll be difficult to get chips from him if you do hit a good flop. This situation is reraise or fold for me.

You have some folding equity plus there is a good chance he calls you with a dominated hand.

This is one of those situations where you'll feel like you've pushed too hard when he calls and shows AA or KK, or he shows a lower PP and wins the coin flip, but in all actuality those situations are going to be pretty rare compared to the times he either folds, calls with a dominated hand, or you win the coinflip.

Another great example BTW.

[Scuba Chuck]

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Without reading the responses, I prefer pushing to folding, and folding to calling.

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Out of curiosity, does the math change your answer?

[Seadood228]

[ QUOTE ]
Out of curiosity, does the math change your answer?

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Errr.. no.. but the fact that I'm an idiot who can't read does. I totally misread the stack sizes/positions in the earlier post. My bad.. Can I change my vote to CALL/PUSH/FOLD [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

This actually looks like a good spot to call with the situation as it is. The advantage of pushing is that you'll get to see all 5 cards, but in all actuality you might get to see them a lot cheaper by calling if your opponent does in fact have one of the hands that we were assuming. The fact that BB is so short (I thought he was the SB and YOU had the big stack) will discourage UTG from taking a swing at the pot without a made hand.

This is one of the few situations where I like calling with AK, and in no way can I see this as an "automatic push"

Sorry Scuba.. next time I'll lay off the heroin before I read one of your examples. And to think I 6 table these [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] No wonder I can't hit those 40% ROI numbers everyone else does [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[jcm4ccc]

[ QUOTE ]
In addition, I want the BB come along too. If the raiser ends up taking me out, I want the BB to go down with me, so I get 3rd.

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Phil, I think I learn more from your posts than anyone else. I voted push, but now I see that calling is a better answer. The BB will almost certainly fold if you push (he'll hope, of course, that you bust out). If you call, he has a much harder decision.

However, Phil, I would like to know your ITM% and ROI%, since maybe you suck and I'm learning a bunch of bad lessons by reading your posts.

[OPJayhawk]

Ilya - I think your thinking is a little off here.

[ QUOTE ]
Also...ok, say you push. Ignore the SB for a second. Now the BB either calls or folds. If he calls, you're in good shape since you've only got to beat one of your two opponents to survive/make money. If BB folds, UTG is gonna be looking at calling off a huge chunk of his stack when there's a guy to his right with 225 chips left. Not unreasonable to suppose that this may persuade him to fold some small pairs.

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With the BB sitting with only 225 chips left its an excellent time for UTG to gamble. Even if he calls and loses he is still in excellent shape to at least take third with the BB almost out.

With 500 chips bet already and looking at pot of roughly 3400 chips for another 1000 he has odds to make the call and an escape if he misses.

The size of the BB's stack here makes a huge difference. If he was sitting on 800 chips instead of 400 then I believe this becomes an easy push as UTG now is in alot more danger if he calls and loses.

PacmanFL

[Seadood228]

Interesting arguement for folding brought forth by your math. I originally went from thinking folding is NOT terrible, to thinking it is, and now I'm kind of on the fence.

It's weird how situations that appear so cut and dry change given the structure of these crazy SNGs.

I'm still voting for CALL/PUSH/FOLD here, but thanks for a different prespective. That's exactly what this forum is for.

One thing that we should add into the mix is the fact that a decent portion of the time this hand will get checked down between you and UTG if neither of you hit, in which case you don't lose much over pushing and getting called by a dominated hand.

Also, if you flat call, how often will the BB come along in this situation? I know it's wrong not to, but how many players will think "maybe Scuba will bust out this hand" and let their hand go?

[Scuba Chuck]

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but how many players will think "maybe Scuba will bust out this hand" and let their hand go?

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I would, and I'm Scuba [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

[11t]

I fold and hope the BB goes out, yes UTG could have AQ/AJ but he has to know that the BB is almost out and he will most likely be forced to show down a hand.

Pushing is the 2nd best option with your chip stack, if you had 3,000 behind you I would probably lean more towards calling. However you only have 1500 with a hand that is only good when it hits or when you are up against a weaker ace or king.

I fold and watch UTG flip over something like TT or JJ when BB calls his raise.