A baseball bet

[tdarko]

i am just going to hope you are one of those die hard boston fans that hates all yankees and looks at each individual player without realistic thought after reading this post.

you saying bernie and jeter are two of the worst defensive players in the game is laughable, defense is what has kept bernie a float on a team that can buy any centerfielder they want and jeter is one of the better shortstops around and the only reason jeter's errors are high every year is because he gets to more balls than most, and you are a statistic guy--the more chances you have the more chance of error correct?

[jrobb83]

The D-back's defense last season was about as bad as it could get for a good deal of the season. Trust, me, I watched a great deal of their games. Webb was the major recipient of the ineptitude of the defense.

Randy, however, fared much better. His run average was 3.22, which was higher than his earned run average (2.60). Webb on the other hand had a run average of 4.80 but an earned run average of only 3.59. He was far more affected by the poor defense, likely due to his strong reliance on his sinker; wheras Randy was less affected, likely because of his extremely high strikeout rate.

So all in all, the change in defenseive scenery probably isn't going to make a huge difference. Randy strikes so many batters out it minimizes the effect poor defense has on his performance. Plus no matter what you say, defensive statistics say that the yank's defense is pretty awful, and that Williams is among the league's worst center fielders. They may not be '04 D-backs bad, but they will be pretty bad.

[Jack of Arcades]

[ QUOTE ]

i am just going to hope you are one of those die hard boston fans that hates all yankees and looks at each individual player without realistic thought after reading this post.

[/ QUOTE ]

Far from it. I regularly watch yankee games. I hate no player, I just try to judge them objectively.

Bernie Williams scouting report, ESPN

[ QUOTE ]
For Williams, the biggest dropoff in production actually might have occurred on the defensive side. A four-time Gold Glove recipient, he now is seen as a liability in the middle of the diamond. Injuries and age have forced Williams to play an even deeper center field. Balls routinely drop in front of him and he rarely challenges an advancing baserunner because of his poor arm. Williams also knows his limitations on the bases, and no longer tries to stretch the double into a triple. Years of experience and plenty of guile still make Williams useful on the bases.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's the overwhelming consesus that Bernie Williams is a horrible defender.

[jrobb83]

[ QUOTE ]

IIRC you can get these kinds of odd on the *field* of MLB pitchers, not just unit alone

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]

There are a bunch of silly arguements in this thread. Give the yankees the #1 offense and #1 defense in the league, and it still isn't even money for anyone to win that many games.

Clearly it is possible (he won 24 for arizona in 2002), but it is also clear that it is unlikely (of his 16 seasons, only once did he win enough to pay off this bet).


[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly.

[ QUOTE ]

Find out what other players this guy is a fanboi of, and make some more hugely +EV bets off of him while you can.

[/ QUOTE ]

Shhh, he may read this. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[maxpowers21]

yes i am the fool who took on this even money bet, and maybe it was not the best mathematical bet to take. But I have some very solid reasons for doing so:

1. 16 wins on a team with 50 some wins total in 1 year.

2. Johnson has been injured exactly 1 year out of the last six.

3. He has exactly 4 cy young titles in the last 6 years, last year he did not recieve one, despite leading the league in strike outs, top 5 in era, and pitching a PERFECT GAME agaisnt the braves.

4. If Randy were to pitch the exact same as he did last year with the yankees run support alone, he would have easily had 26-28 wins. Easily.

5. This is more emotional based then anything but... Johnson wanted to be traded to the yankees. He wanted to have some sort of shot at hitting 300 wins in his baseball carreer. He will pitch games to win this year, maybe this will result in injury, but i highly doubt he will be taken out of games in situations where he coudl go deeper into games with a lead and potential win, certainly not in the 2nd half of the season. he's that type of competitor.

6. look at Roger [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Jack of Arcades]

[ QUOTE ]
4. If Randy were to pitch the exact same as he did last year with the yankees run support alone, he would have easily had 26-28 wins. Easily.

[/ QUOTE ]

Bullshit.

[maxpowers21]

[ QUOTE ]
There are a bunch of silly arguements in this thread. Give the yankees the #1 offense and #1 defense in the league, and it still isn't even money for anyone to win that many games.

Clearly it is possible (he won 24 for arizona in 2002), but it is also clear that it is unlikely (of his 16 seasons, only once did he win enough to pay off this bet).

Find out what other players this guy is a fanboi of, and make some more hugely +EV bets off of him while you can.

[/ QUOTE ]

he had 21 wins in 2001, sooo close though [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]. And as Jrobb said earlier defense is not nearly as big an impact agaisnt Randy Johnson. If he has low era, and high strike outs, like he has had all but his injured season in oh say the past 6 seasons, errors will on average be a bigger factor for the opposing pitchers.

The run support the yankees shoudl offer, is nothing Randy Johnson has had on any team throughout his basbeball carrer. Period.

I shoudlve made some alternate bet, that he woudl either win 22+ or lose 5-, because the way yankees come back from games it woudl seem, maybe not probable, but very possible for RJ to lose no more then 4-5 games with 30 soem starts

[maxpowers21]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Do you even play poker? Are you the kind of person that thinks because you flipped a coin and it was heads last time, there's only a 25% chance of it being heads this time?

[/ QUOTE ]
without a smart ass comment what is this in reference to?

[/ QUOTE ]

If I flip a coin twice, the probabilities of:
2xH: 25%
1xH, 1xT: 50%
2xT: 25%

You flip it once, and it lands heads. Clearly, when you flip it again the probability of it being heads is only 25%, because 2xH only happens 25% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I truley hope this last sentence is a typo, because this is very wrong. I'll give you a hint.....independent random variables.

[ethan]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Do you even play poker? Are you the kind of person that thinks because you flipped a coin and it was heads last time, there's only a 25% chance of it being heads this time?

[/ QUOTE ]
without a smart ass comment what is this in reference to?

[/ QUOTE ]

If I flip a coin twice, the probabilities of:
2xH: 25%
1xH, 1xT: 50%
2xT: 25%

You flip it once, and it lands heads. Clearly, when you flip it again the probability of it being heads is only 25%, because 2xH only happens 25% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I truley hope this last sentence is a typo, because this is very wrong. I'll give you a hint.....independent random variables.

[/ QUOTE ]

Try to read my comments as explaing what "this is in reference to." It'll make more sense.

The only thing keeping me from a PhD in applied math is laziness. Trust me. I get it.

edit - also, I think you took the sucker end of the bet. You'd almost certainly find a better o/u elsewhere.

[maxpowers21]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Do you even play poker? Are you the kind of person that thinks because you flipped a coin and it was heads last time, there's only a 25% chance of it being heads this time?

[/ QUOTE ]
without a smart ass comment what is this in reference to?

[/ QUOTE ]

If I flip a coin twice, the probabilities of:
2xH: 25%
1xH, 1xT: 50%
2xT: 25%

You flip it once, and it lands heads. Clearly, when you flip it again the probability of it being heads is only 25%, because 2xH only happens 25% of the time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I truley hope this last sentence is a typo, because this is very wrong. I'll give you a hint.....independent random variables.

[/ QUOTE ]

Try to read my comments as explaing what "this is in reference to." It'll make more sense.

The only thing keeping me from a PhD in applied math is laziness. Trust me. I get it.

edit - also, I think you took the sucker end of the bet. You'd almost certainly find a better o/u elsewhere.

[/ QUOTE ]

From an EV standpoint, on further reflection on this bet I would agree, but I still think there is a strong possibility, assume RJ does not get injured, of accomplishing this. what i did was take a mass consesus of people who i think are underestimating his pitchign abilities and expected production and made a slight over-estimate on what he will probably do. And i do beleive it is slight.

I beleive i am a +EV bet on 20+ wins.