Your ENTIRE bankroll on AA...do you do it?

[stillbr]

only if were playing slansky poker. haha/jk

Yes id put my whole br on it

[stillbr]

I'm a pro(i guess) college student. I play 3-6 and usually pull in between 2-3K a month. I would put my whole BR on it even though I need that money so I can pay bills. The only reason I would do it is becasue if I lost I'm 100% certain I would be able to get a stake to stay at my current level of play.

[Nigel]

Teddy,

If you wouldn't keep doing it over and over, I assume it's because there comes a point at which your bankroll gets large enough that you are not willing to risk it (which is why some people are answering no, their bankroll is already too large to risk on one shot).

If it's not because it has become too large, then why would you ever stop taking the wager? I know it wouldn't be because after doubling up 4 times in a row, that you's be "due" to miss one... [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Nigel

[MicroBob]

my risk of ruin is already decreased because of my willingness to step back in limits if necessary and also because of my tendency to play WELL within my bankroll requirements.


I already have a decent chance of doubling-up very quickly if I stepped up to the party 30/60 tables RIGHT NOW.

The games are pretty donk-filled from what I've heard.

And I have the bankroll to sustain a few mild swings in there and I suspect I might be close to 70-75% chance of doubling-my-money there before I go broke (assuming I were to actually stay at the tables down to my very last BB if I ran badly).


But I'm not doing it.
I'm not even taking 'shots' at it yet (where I would obviously step back if I dropped a few BB's).


Not because I don't want to win or make money.
but because the risk is too great for me to be comfortable with at this point.


Right now, all I have to do to double my bankroll is sit around all day and click buttons and keep studying a little bit.


And I don't have a 15-25% risk-of-ruin doing that.



After I double my bankroll (or somewhere along the way) I'll take more shots at 10/20...then at 15/30 at a cetain point...then at 30/60...etc etc.

And nowhere along the way do I have to put my entire bankroll at risk or have a 15% chance of ruin.



(note - for the purposes of this I am assuming that 'ruin' means truly losing ALL your money and I'm not considering the very realistic scenario of people around me helping me out a bit if that were to happen).

[DesignProdigy]

my roll isnt that big.. so hell yea

[teddyFBI]

[ QUOTE ]
Teddy,

If you wouldn't keep doing it over and over, I assume it's because there comes a point at which your bankroll gets large enough that you are not willing to risk it (which is why some people are answering no, their bankroll is already too large to risk on one shot).

If it's not because it has become too large, then why would you ever stop taking the wager? I know it wouldn't be because after doubling up 4 times in a row, that you's be "due" to miss one... [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Nigel

[/ QUOTE ]

Because it's a classic Martingale pattern. The reason that system doesn't work in a casino is because everyone will eventually go broke. That's why the question here is a little flawed.

So I qualified my answer a bit: as a one-off proposition, i'd do it.

Note: it also depends on what your definition of 'bankroll' is. Even if I lost my entire "bankroll", I'd have sufficient other funds (even if i had to borrow) to start out again on the winning track...i don't know if that's cheating.

[MicroBob]

[ QUOTE ]

If it's not because it has become too large, then why would you ever stop taking the wager? I know it wouldn't be because after doubling up 4 times in a row, that you's be "due" to miss one...

[/ QUOTE ]



this is an outstanding point.


people say that they wouldn't do it over and over again...but that you should be willing to do it just the one time.

Why?? If it's not a good bet in the 'long-run' then why exactly would it be a good bet in the 'short-term'.

Obviously the difference is that someone with a bankroll of only $500 doesn't have THAT much to lose.
Whereas someone with a bankroll in the $100k range has plenty to lose.


Would you do this bet if you already had a million dollars?


To clarify - I would do this bet (85/15 chance of doubling) if my bankroll were around $2k or so (and I could half-way count on a stake of 'getting help' if I busted).
However, at $25k or so I'm turning it down.


Building up from $25k to $50k on my own is work of course....but it is not nearly as bad as the risk of having to start over and build up from $0 to $25k again.

[Tapin]

[ QUOTE ]
as a one-off proposition, i'd do it.

[/ QUOTE ]

If I get dealt aces preflop twice in a head's-up game with my entire poker bankroll on the table, my move is to wonder who's setting me up and if I can get out of the game alive.

[Nick-Zack]

[ QUOTE ]
an unsuprising observation: "pro" players say no, recreational/semi-pro players say yes.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would have guessed this would have been the outcome of the poll. Those that will still get a paycheck next Friday and start over love the idea. Those of us that would have to get the resume printed immediately aren't going to do it. I live comfortably on my poker earnings now, doubling the bankroll isn't going to make my life twice as good. Taking the bankroll to zero would be an absolute disaster.

[dogmeat]

Ummm, yeah, I take an 85% chance with a years pay...........

I'd bet 80% for an 80% chance, and 60% of my bankroll on a 75% chance. Below that chance, probably only bet 10% - 15%.

Dogmeat [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]