Common Party $3-$6 Situation

[Blarg]

You're getting 5 1/2 to 1 to call. If the other two queens are your only outs, you need 23 to 1 to call.

What I notice at Party is that the big blind at least 90% of the time will call with anything at all. So a 2 is really not much less likely than any other holding, and a king is slightly more likely from any caller just because it's a king, but not decisively so when coming from the big blind. We're not necessarily looking at someone who called because he liked his hand or because his hand was very coordinated. We're likely calling someone who just "protects his bet" automatically unless he has something remarkably terrible like the proverbial 72 offsuit. And even then he might call. So basically his call means almost nothing and he could have anything.

Still, this is an intimidating board for most people, as your preflop raise could have signaled an ace or a king, which would mean the flop gave you top pair plus probably a nice kicker. In which case unless BB had a deuce or a king with a strong kicker, it's bad news for the BB and he knows he's probably behind.

Betting out into a preflop raiser with that flop means either he thinks you will fold a hand with a King in it, which doesn't make a lot of sense, or that he has a hand with a king or a deuce in it himself, IF he's not bluffing.

BB didn't re-raise preflop, so if he has a good hand, he probably made it on the flop with either that King or the deuces, in which case you're far behind. It's not likely he has JJ, QQ, KK, AA, AK or AKs, TT, or the like, at least.

So he probably has either a King with what he thinks is a better kicker than the king you might have(or sufficient by itself) or trip deuces to beat you soundly; a low or middle pair trying to make you pay to draw out against him if you raised with just two high or two suited cards, or fold outright; or is on a bluff with anything to nothing at all.

I think you're looking for a concrete answer to a question with important variables. I'm sure you'll disagree, but at this point I would like a solid read of the guy before I took up what might be only 23 to 1 odds for a 5 1/2 to 1 pay-off. This hand played to the river will cost 2 1/2 big bets.

The best way I can think of to get more information is to raise.

[MrHorace]

I think you want to raise here as well. You raised preflop, and any show of weakness post flop might cause severe issues in later rounds.

[amerksmann22]

I dont like a riase at all.

This is player dependent between call, call, call or fold.

LAG I like to call all the wway down (get to a showdown as cheap as possible.)

If player is weak tight then it is an easy fold.

[sublime]

I think you want to raise here as well. You raised preflop, and any show of weakness post flop might cause severe issues in later rounds.

Severe issues like what? Hitting the call button?

[MrHorace]

Him catching a miracle card on the turn or river to beat you. ???
But as I'm studying this, I'm wondering if because my pocket pairs have an overcard on the board, it might be better to just call. Am I thinking right?
I guess I'm not so sure he doesn't have a K, that's all.

[j0n_blayze]

well i hope Ed gives an answer as well! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[sublime]

well i hope Ed gives an answer as well!

I would be VERY surprised if Ed's answer isnt to just call down.

If you raise he will call and fold the turn unimproved (or c/r your ass on the turn).

If you fold.... well you need to grow some hair on your chest.

If you call, he will continue to bet and when he doesnt, you bet.

This is a rather simple situaution that is being overanylzed because Ed Miller posted it.

[bdk3clash]

This hand has way too much showdown value to muck for one bet at any point, I think. There's nothing wrong with deciding that you're going to see a showdown a few streets ahead and planning accordingly.

I'd just call the flop bet. I'd make sure I put in one bet on the turn and river, but not two. The only way I'm not seeing a river is if I get checkraised on the turn, and the only way I'm not seeing a showdown once I make it to the river is if my opponent is crafty enough to checkraise there. I'd tip my hat to him for a hand well played, or a bluff well-run (albeit an expensive and improbable one.)

[nepenthe]

I think calling down is acceptable. My preferred way is raising the flop (folding to a 3-bet), checking the turn, and calling/betting the river depending on opponent's actions. A pocket pair / bluff is completely within the possibilities here, and a PP isn't folding to the flop raise most likely.

[sthief09]

I'm amazed how many responses this has gotten. This is the easiest fold in the world... (I'm going to look pretty stupid if I'm wrong)

it's a tiny pot, it's a 100% uncoordinated board, and you have 2 outs when you're behind.

this hand is a perfect example of why the check-call, check-call, bet line is great in these situations (if you have a K). betting out gives any pocket pair below QQ an easy opportunity to fold, and gets you trapped by AK, AA, or KK, which will pop you on the turn.