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#1
12-29-2005, 05:44 PM
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Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
I don't know why I'm rechiming in here, well, I am bored.
Like I said, looks like a push, but it's close. Pushing any two is pretty crazy. If I kept getting terrible terrible cards, I'd just take the BB. 
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#2
12-29-2005, 06:46 PM
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Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
[ QUOTE ]
I'm pushing almost any 2 here. Anything with more than 35% equity verse a random hand should be pushed here. Here you have the chance to play against a random hand. That is not going to happen again in this tournament. [/ QUOTE ] Ummm...so if you fold the J8, push one of your next three hands and it's folded to the BB, he's not going to have a random hand? Pushing any two is absolutely awful (absent an overly tight BB) and a leak a lot of pushbot players have. Chip EV does not = $EV in situations like this. It's nice for formulaic analysis and writing software, but it doesn't hold in spots like this when losing means you're out and you miss out on future +EV opportunities you would (on average) have had that are much better than the one you took. I absolutely love playing against players who have this kind of pushing mentality in spots like this, more +$EV opportunities for me to gamble with a smaller portion of my stack against these players.
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#3
12-29-2005, 06:53 PM
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Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I'm pushing almost any 2 here. Anything with more than 35% equity verse a random hand should be pushed here. Here you have the chance to play against a random hand. That is not going to happen again in this tournament. [/ QUOTE ] Ummm...so if you fold the J8, push one of your next three hands and it's folded to the BB, he's not going to have a random hand? Pushing any two is absolutely awful (absent an overly tight BB) and a leak a lot of pushbot players have. Chip EV does not = $EV in situations like this. It's nice for formulaic analysis and writing software, but it doesn't hold in spots like this when losing means you're out and you miss out on future +EV opportunities you would (on average) have had that are much better than the one you took. I absolutely love playing against players who have this kind of pushing mentality in spots like this, more +$EV opportunities for me to gamble with a smaller portion of my stack against these players. [/ QUOTE ] You're thinking about it from "your" point of view and not Hero's. What future +EV situation is he passing on? Of course as the BB you love calling here and taking advantage of the "pushbot" but this hand has nothing to do with "pushbotting"...it is simply an opportunity which may be your last to get HU against a random hand with a "decent" holding 3way. If you give me an example of waiting for the more +EV opp that comes along I'd be curious. Also, +cEV is surely +$EV with 2BBs as the shortstack, unless I am misunderstanding something. I agree that any 2 though is too much.
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#4
12-29-2005, 07:03 PM
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Re: $22: Push or wait with an uber short stack
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] I'm pushing almost any 2 here. Anything with more than 35% equity verse a random hand should be pushed here. Here you have the chance to play against a random hand. That is not going to happen again in this tournament. [/ QUOTE ] Ummm...so if you fold the J8, push one of your next three hands and it's folded to the BB, he's not going to have a random hand? Pushing any two is absolutely awful (absent an overly tight BB) and a leak a lot of pushbot players have. Chip EV does not = $EV in situations like this. It's nice for formulaic analysis and writing software, but it doesn't hold in spots like this when losing means you're out and you miss out on future +EV opportunities you would (on average) have had that are much better than the one you took. I absolutely love playing against players who have this kind of pushing mentality in spots like this, more +$EV opportunities for me to gamble with a smaller portion of my stack against these players. [/ QUOTE ] You fold here and hope what? In the next three hands I might get a better hand, and maybe nobody else will have already entered the pot(with a much better than random hand), and maybe those extra hands I'm pushing through won't wakeup with anything, and then maybe I can win against the big blinds random hand since he is calling anyway and if all else fails I can call from the big blind against one or more villains who have voluntarily entered the pot with better than random hands. Pushing here is not giving up. It is making the best possible move given your diminishing options. Not pushing here is giving up.
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