Why will you never go pro?

[gomberg]

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I truly think that a non-pro who has a job that pays all his bills can make more money PLAYING POKER than a pro of equal skill and responsibilities over a 2ish year period.

See, I have a non-poker career. And I have a decent bankroll. But I can continue to take shots in bigger and bigger games because if I accept a higher risk of ruin, it doesn't hurt as much.

If you start with a $5000 bankroll and I do too, you have to play like 3-6. At 3-6, you won't be making a ton more than your living expenses. If it takes 75% of your hands in a month to pay bills, then you only get to add to your bankroll with 25% of your hands.

If I, having a career, only play 1/4 as much as you, but it all goes to bankroll, my bankroll will grow just as fast. And, oh yeah, I don't have to stick to a 1000BB bankroll. I could play a game with a 200BB bankroll. In this case, I could play 10-20 or 15-30. Now, if my winrate at these 'tougher' games is only half what it is at 3-6, I'm still going to be making more money PLAYING 1/4 AS MUCH.

If you go pro playing 3-6, how long will it be before you can play 100-200? Quite a while...years. If you have a job and instead start out at 10-20, you could be playing 100-200 much much sooner.

I've argued for a while that a lot of people can/should go pro, just not yet. Build a nice fat bankroll. Your earnrate isn't linear, it's exponential. Build the roll, play games that will do much much more than just 'pay the bills', and enjoy life a whole lot more.

That's a long ramble. I hope it makes sense.

Josh

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That was a great post and has been true in my experience. I have 40something k extra that I don't need cause I have a decent paying job to pay bills and all other expenses. So My risk level is pretty high, and I can keep moving up pretty quickly in the poker world and if I lose some of that bankroll - who cares?