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View Poll Results: I have several essential cell phone calls that I need to make during any given commute. | |||
False | 12 | 80.00% | |
True | 3 | 20.00% | |
Voters: 15. You may not vote on this poll |
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Thread Tools | Display Modes |
#51
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Re: Johnny Damon signs with Yankees
Or if you compare it with the Giles signing.
lol wait Or if you compare it with the Giles signing. yeah, lol |
#52
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Re: Johnny Damon signs with Yankees
Sublime: I agree with your statistical analysis about the Damon deal and such, but I would also factor in this.
Damon is a proven veteren, one who has handled the big stage brilliantly, has lots of postseason experience and he can most likely handle the pressure of New York. He will be good in the clubhouse and he was one of the emotional leaders of the Boston Red Sox over the last few years. They will miss at least that much from him on a team that is losing veterans and gaining youth. These are some of the positives that Damon brings over an unproven player or one with no postseason experience (a la Reed). That said, I don't think it is a great deal, but it is better than you are making it out to be IMO. |
#53
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Re: Johnny Damon signs with Yankees
oh, i have no doubt they are getting a quality player for the next couple of years who will contribute at a high level.
i usually approach each deal from the finacial end first. i like how money and markets work i guess [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] |
#54
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Re: Johnny Damon signs with Yankees
UCF,
The best way to predict Johnny Damon's stats going forward is not to look only at his road splits, but to adjust his overall numbers for Fenway and go from there. |
#55
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Re: Johnny Damon signs with Yankees
[ QUOTE ]
You project him at 33.8 BRAR in 2006 at the age of 32. Let's say 31 BRAR in 2007 at 33. At age 34 project 27 and at age 35 project 23. bernie williams 32 52 brar 33 59 34 23 35 26 so damon loses 12% of his offense from 33 -34, and williams loses over 50%.........right................... [/ QUOTE ] Nice to pick one player and compare Damon to him. I choose Tim Raines. He would have been projected at 35.8 going into age 32 and produced 33.5 from 32-35. I've got a better idea. Let's figure a normal decline. There is a chance that Damon is still producing at his current level at the age of 35. There is a chance he'll be out of baseball. When I say 23 BRAR at age 35, I'm assuming a slow decline. The problem is, there is rarely a slow decline. So 23 would have to be an average of all of the possible outcomes. If you want to provide some stats on the EV of a players decline, I will listen. [ QUOTE ] Furcal cashes in at 2.24 expected BRAR per million, However, he plays a premium position and apprently very well. [/ QUOTE ] Yes, Furcal is a better signing. But to defend the Furcal signing you can't say the Damon signing is: [ QUOTE ] awful. period. [/ QUOTE ] or [ QUOTE ] by year 3 this deal will be horrific not just bad. [/ QUOTE ] or [ QUOTE ] "3rd grade math would tell you the 'deal' is horrible" [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] giles: 61.6 expected BRAR @ 10m = 6 runs per million which is a GREAT DEAL, even if you factor in his age. the fact that you even brought his name into this discussion puzzles me. his deal is the polar opposite of damons. [/ QUOTE ] It's about decline. Of course if Giles continues to produce at his current level, this is a great deal for the Pads. I just don't understand how Damon can be expected to decline significantly when he will be 35 at the end of his contract yet Giles will continue to produce when he will be 35 at the begining. In my mind, Giles is a bigger risk at the end of the contract, but a better value at the begining. When you weigh everything together, you can't say the Giles signing is THAT much better. Unless of course you are in "win now" mode and discount greatly the crapiness at the end of the contract [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] |
#56
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Re: Johnny Damon signs with Yankees
Does anybody think that now that Damon is gone Manny has a better chance of staying? worse? no bearing at all?
craig |
#57
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Re: Johnny Damon signs with Yankees
Um, no, the Giles signing is approzimately 300 million times better than Damon's.
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#58
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Re: Johnny Damon signs with Yankees
[ QUOTE ]
UCF, The best way to predict Johnny Damon's stats going forward is not to look only at his road splits, but to adjust his overall numbers for Fenway and go from there. [/ QUOTE ] That is true, but it is alot better way to predict future hitting than to rely heavily on stats from Fenway Park. |
#59
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Re: Johnny Damon signs with Yankees
Did you just agree and disagree with me in the same sentence?
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#60
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Re: Johnny Damon signs with Yankees
Yea, i guess so, maybe i didn't totally understand what you meant,
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