reasons not to slowplay flopped nuts #37

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River: ($6.25) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets $2</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $8</font>, Villain calls $7.80 (All-In), SB calls $4.90 (All-In).



Final Pot: $28.95


SB has Qd Qs (two pair, queens and fives).
Hero has 9h 9d (full house, nines full of fives).
Villain has Ts Tc (full house, tens full of fives).
Outcome: Villain wins $28.75. Hero wins $0.19.

so... so much for my theory that SB had nothing... tho I am very hapy they called me down only holding 2 pair.

had Villain not spiked a 10 on the river I imagine they would have folded the river - and I would have collected a $21 pot. As it turned out - o well - thats just the way the cards fall.

Had I played more aggressively on the flop and turn I would most likely have taken down a much smaller pot earlier.

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That just shows why my line is probably slightly better.

[Iconoclastic]

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Exactly. How many times has a person slow played naked trip 5's only to find a strait or flush hit the board on the river and now they want to be careful putting money in. Or the board pairs higher than 5 and now their hand is questionable. You want to get people putting money in while they are still willing to put it in. You dont have to go crazy and bet everyone out, but start building a pot that people are not gonna want to let go of as quickly as possible.

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Why would anyone slowplay mere trips on the Flop AND the Turn? On a draw heavy board? If they're stupid enough to do that then they're stupid enough to put all their money in on the river regardless of the river card.

[4_2_it]

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Oops. However, if I assume villain is on a draw 50% of times he calls and has 2-pr the 50% here are the numbers:

Both villains fold to turn bet of $2 (50%of the time) -- 50%*2=$1.00
1 villain calls river push with 2-pr/overpair/donk 10%*12=$1.20
1 villain call river push with made straight/flush --6%*12=$0.72
1 villain folds on river with missed draw -- 34%*$4=$1.36

I still get $4.28 to your $3.00 and I have villain folding 86% of the time to your 75%. My case is more pessimistic and is still more +EV. It is even more +EV if you factor in both villains calling even a small percentage of the time.

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Not so fast my friend. The Villains in this hand only started with $9 and $10 dollars, so you cannot win $12 from either one. That number would be substituted by 8 or 7, depending on which would call the $2 bet. That lowers the Bet Turn Bet River line's EV significantly, to 1.96 vs. my 1.50 per the original formula, which does not count the money I put into the pot as EV.

That .46 is potentially made up by equity yet to be entered into our formulas; the times they bluff because we have shown no pre-River aggression; the times the SB decides it is safe to bet out on the River instead of check-call/folding.

Also, personally I never bet a small portion of the pot unless I have the nuts. It just gives up too much odds to hands I'm trying to protect against. So my arsenal consists heavily of check(raise)s and pot sized bets. My shania demands the Check Turn Bet River line.

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Of course you win $12. You have to count the money you put in on the turn in the calculation. Once $$ go into pot it is no longer yours. You can believe what you like, I am through here.

[Iconoclastic]

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Of course you win $12. You have to count the money you put in on the turn in the calculation. Once $$ go into pot it is no longer yours. You can believe what you like, I am through here.

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No it's pointless to count the money you put in yourself as EV winnings. Compare the $12 you say you win with Bet Turn Bet River with the $6 I win with Check Turn Bet River. You're saying that instead of winning $6 I should win $12 after including the $6 from my bet with the $6 from Villain's call.

[DoomSlice]

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Had I played more aggressively on the flop and turn I would most likely have taken down a much smaller pot earlier.

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But instead you lost a big pot!

If SB is not folding here, then he isn't folding the turn either. And although Villain put money in on the river, there is a good chance he would have folded if a J, Q, K, A came and scared him away.