Im sure you all will hate this

[Lestat]

I think most decent players will immediately recognize the problems of making a second best hand here, etc. What might not be so obvious...

Is the problem created by the fact it was the sb who raised. This means a flop bet is most likely forthcoming and puts you in a dangerous reverse implied odds situation. You're going to want to peel with certain 3 and 4 out draws here and this is much more dangerous with 5 players to act behind you.

So if this is your reason for folding, I congratulate you for going beyond what most good players would consider here.

[Lestat]

<font color="red"> 109o and j10o are easy calls. qjo and kqo are easy folds. </font>

I disagree with this.

Unlike AJo, KQ and QJ can flop a few more big draws which don't leave you worried about reverse implied odds (see my original response). These are connected broadway cards that can win a monster! I don't think a good player should EVER fold either of these hands getting 8 to 1.

[worm33]

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So getting 13-1 PF do you call with any offsuit ace?

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I think a legitimate argument can be made for folding a kicker as high as a 10 given the offsuited nature; but comparing a Jack to "any card" when it's, you know, the 4th biggest card in the deck...


Im just saying that if AJ is such an easy easy call, surely you must at least consider calling with a6o

[Peter_rus]

KQo is way better than 98o in this spot, i agree.

[ggbman]

I have decided to make this one of the two threads i will put significant thought into this month [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Seriously though, i have given this some though, and i really feel like i have a compelling case here.

This fold is terrible. Those of you who think it is close are wrong, and somehow, unless i missed it somewhere, no one has mentioned that there are 5 [censored] LIMPERS!!! What does this mean? It means that if the sb is a good thinking player, he knows that just about any suited connector has an equity adge against this field and will raise it a decent amount of the time.

cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
9s 8s 138955 21.12 518415 78.79 638 0.10 0.211
7d 7h 63622 9.67 582208 88.48 12178 1.85 0.106
Ac Td 116956 17.77 521159 79.20 19893 3.02 0.193
As 7c 5407 0.82 621168 94.40 31433 4.78 0.032
4c 4d 118909 18.07 538461 81.83 638 0.10 0.181
Jd Kh 182726 27.77 474644 72.13 638 0.10 0.278

Obviously he could be dominated from time to time but the point is, many good players are aising suited connectors here! To make a good evaluation of the strength of your hand, you need to have a good idea of his range. Here's another thing. If he's a knowledgable player, hes range of hands here also has stuff like 99, tt, maybe even 88 or 77. There are almost enough people in the pot for him to raise for JUST FOR SET VALUE. if he has TT, well look, he's definitly raising

cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ts Tc 176536 26.83 480868 73.08 604 0.09 0.268
7d 7h 117478 17.85 539926 82.05 604 0.09 0.179
8s Ac 36325 5.52 604297 91.84 17386 2.64 0.068
As 9c 56763 8.63 583859 88.73 17386 2.64 0.099
4c 4d 98422 14.96 558982 84.95 604 0.09 0.150
Jd Kh 155098 23.57 502306 76.34 604 0.09 0.236

I know a bunch of you are going to jump on me about hot/cold equity etc... but there is no way that negates his edge here, and the above simulaltion doesn't even have people sharing boradway cards!!! So, if he a good player , his ange of hands includes plenty of stuff that you have crushed, stuff that warrants your folding to this raise.

Another thing is that he could be a bad/non thinking player. If this is the case, it's even easier, he'll have a worse ace 40% of th [censored] time. I uderstand the arugemtns people have made about reverse implied odds, etc..., but i am quite confident there is no way it even comes close to negating the pro's of seeing the flop here. I am also surprsied that no one cared to expand the hand range to include suited connectors, it seems like a definite consideration in this spot. And that is all i have for now.

Gabe

[worm33]

in my 3rd post i believe i said that i had been at the table for 3 or 4 orbits and this player looked to be passive and weak. Therefore there is about a 1% chance he is a "good thinking player" and raising with 89s here. And who says "good thinking players" do that anyway. My poker insticts told me had a big hand. Take that for what its worth.

If I am 97% sure that the worst hand he can have here is jj-ak which has been the discussion the whole time, thats where the argument comes in. Otherwise of course theres not an argument, we might have the best hand.

[ggbman]

[ QUOTE ]
in my 3rd post i believe i said that i had been at the table for 3 or 4 orbits and this player looked to be passive and weak. Therefore there is about a 1% chance he is a "good thinking player" and raising with 89s here. And who says "good thinking players" do that anyway. My poker insticts told me had a big hand. Take that for what its worth.

If I am 97% sure that the worst hand he can have here is jj-ak which has been the discussion the whole time, thats where the argument comes in. Otherwise of course theres not an argument, we might have the best hand.

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First of all, i am not saying that all good thinking players raise suited connectors. I simply classified opponents into different catergories and attempted to show that it was right to play the hand in either cirumstance.

I also pointed out that many players have a wider range than some people here have acknowledged. I understand you have read him as strong, but gernally i don't think 3-4 orbits is enough to put him on a 5 hand range when he raises preflop. If you read is that strong, use it to fold the turn after a jack high flop when he plays back at you.

[Peter_rus]

Even if you think he has JJ,AK+ you should either raise (i prefer) or call. You're only 1:3 underdog to him and pot is huge. If you think there is no chance anyone folding PF you still should call cause against random callers and 1 monster hands you have odds 1:7. (with 27o you must have odds 1:16). Ok, you don't have position - change 1:7 to 1:10 or 1:11 - this is still the case to call or raise ONLY.

[Justin A]

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justin,

unless he has a made hand no decent player makes a continuation bet into a field this large.

i think your 50% equity on a J high flop vs the sb is way off. 12 AK combos, 3AQs, 3 AA, 6 KK, 6 QQ, 3 JJ, even if you add TT here and it's 6, you are way less then 50% on a J high flop.

as for the 55 -60% fav on a A high flop, you are a little high, and when you flop an A (1 in 6 times), and you are vs a bigger A or AA you lose a lot. plus you have a large field to contend with even if you hit an A and you are ahead of the sb.

i think AJo is a clear fold here.

but that is just my opinion.

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My stats came from poker stove. Check it out yourself if you don't believe me.

[Justin A]

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don't forget you can flop three jacks or nut straight and make a lot..

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So you call with 5-2o right?

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AJo makes top pair that is the best hand often enough to make this a call.

If we give the SB a very tight hand range of AA-JJ, AK, and AQs, we have roughly 50% equity vs the SB on a jack high flop, and we're a 55-60% favorite over the SB on an ace high flop.

I realize this does not take into account the rest of the players and the fact that due to this hand range we'll flop top pair less often than usual, but we don't need to flop the best hand that often to make this a winning play. Also, when AJ flops top pair, it's got a very good chance of holding up even against a large field if it is currently the best hand, especially since you'll often have the opportunity to raise the SB's continuation bet.

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So getting 13-1 PF do you call with any offsuit ace?

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No, I thought I was clear that having a jack is far superior to lower kickers, including even a ten because it flops top pair more often and is much less vulnerable to overcards.