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#51
10-31-2005, 03:19 AM
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Re: attitude on coinflips
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] KingGordy, here's one from earlier in the thread: [ QUOTE ] One example you post a small blind of 100 and the big blind is all in for 101 everyone folds to you, is folding 0 EV? [/ QUOTE ] Imagine this 4 handed, blinds 50/100 and the stacks are CO: t2633 Button: t101 SB: t2633 BB (you): t2633 CO folds, Button pushes for 101, SB folds. You have AA. Folding here is -$EV. Exaggerated for the purpose of proving the point. Actually, folding anything here is -$EV. -SonnyJay [/ QUOTE ]from SSHE page 23 "Quantifying your expectation for calling and raising is often difficult, but folding is easy: It is always zero. When you fold, you are guaranteed to win or lose nothing more. If either calling or raising has a positive expectation, you should not fold." [/ QUOTE ] Prepost tournament equity: CO: 32.7% Button: 1.9% SB: 32.7% You: 32.7% When you fold, the resulting equities are: CO: 32% Button: 4.6% SB: 31.8% You: 31.6% Congratulations, you just lost 1.1% of tournament equity. That's 11 ROI points. Once you understand that SNGs employ ENTIRELY different concepts from a 1/2 LHE game and the MTTs you're used to play, you'll become a much more solid winner. edit: Minor adjustment to equities, I had given BB 10 extra chips. [/ QUOTE ] This is all correct. I would just like to add you don't have to be in a blind to have your equity change when you fold. 
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#52
10-31-2005, 03:20 AM
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Re: attitude on coinflips
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Read peregsu and my posts. Don't look at it as the 1 chip versus 0 chips. Look at the prize pool equity in pergesu's post. That's 1.1% of the prize pool that's no longer yours. It's money out of your pocket. Independent of the prize pool your tournament chips have no value. One tournament chip is meaningless to you. $1.10 out of a $10+1 prize pool is. -SonnyJay [/ QUOTE ] Yeah I see where you're coming from. As I mentioned in another response I was looking at it from a chip EV perspective, rather than a tournament equity perspective. I can understand how folding could result in lower tournament equity.
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#53
10-31-2005, 03:21 AM
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Re: attitude on coinflips
Why has this "Folding EV discussion" gone on so long? Folding is always, always 0 chip EV(you have 800 chips. You fold. How many chips do you have now?).
Folding can be all sorts of +/-$EV in a multiple payout tournament. That's like 3 sentences instead of these convoluted posts with ICM numbers when it's obvious you're just talking past each other. Simplistic- The truly tremendously stupid part of your involvement in this thread isn't that people told you the correct answer and showed why and you rejected them, it's because your fundamental reason for thinking this issue was up for debate was because the consensus in the MTT forum is coinflips are good. How come their support-free(apparently, since if the reason was explained you'd grasp why SNGs are different) convinced you but STT's supported and explained consensus failed to?
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#54
10-31-2005, 03:22 AM
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Re: attitude on coinflips
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] KingGordy, here's one from earlier in the thread: [ QUOTE ] One example you post a small blind of 100 and the big blind is all in for 101 everyone folds to you, is folding 0 EV? [/ QUOTE ] Imagine this 4 handed, blinds 50/100 and the stacks are CO: t2633 Button: t101 SB: t2633 BB (you): t2633 CO folds, Button pushes for 101, SB folds. You have AA. Folding here is -$EV. Exaggerated for the purpose of proving the point. Actually, folding anything here is -$EV. -SonnyJay [/ QUOTE ]from SSHE page 23 "Quantifying your expectation for calling and raising is often difficult, but folding is easy: It is always zero. When you fold, you are guaranteed to win or lose nothing more. If either calling or raising has a positive expectation, you should not fold." [/ QUOTE ] Okay just for a bit of quick fun...we'll assume that the Button flips over his AA after pushing, and you look down to find 32o. A rather decent HU hand vs a rather awful HU hand [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] As I showed in my earlier post, before posting your BB you have 32.7% equity, and after you fold you have 31.6% equity. So let's see what happens when you call him with your 32o. 87.2% of the time you lose one extra chip. Let's go with the very reasonable assumption that this one chip makes absolutely no difference on your equities. So by calling and losing, you have the same equity as you do by folding. 12.8% of the time you win. The times you win you'll have 33.8% equity. At this point it should be patently obvious that calling gains you equity and folding loses equity. But I'll show the numbers just in case: (.872 * .316) + (.128 * .338) = 30.46% Folding leaves you with 31.6% equity. Calling your 32o leaves you with 31.9%. So folding here is -EV.
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#55
10-31-2005, 03:22 AM
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Re: attitude on coinflips
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] folding is always 0EV [/ QUOTE ] This is not true. [/ QUOTE ]learn me? [/ QUOTE ] Sorry, there are many examples of this not being true. [/ QUOTE ] This discussion is silly. There are different accounting systems. The important thing is that your accounting system lets you decide between two alternatives, not that it comes up with the "true" number.
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#56
10-31-2005, 03:25 AM
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Re: attitude on coinflips
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] folding is always 0EV [/ QUOTE ] This is not true. [/ QUOTE ]learn me? [/ QUOTE ] Sorry, there are many examples of this not being true. [/ QUOTE ] This discussion is silly. There are different accounting systems. The important thing is that your accounting system lets you decide between two alternatives, not that it comes up with the "true" number. [/ QUOTE ] As mentionned earlier this would be true if we weren't talking about sit n gos.
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#57
10-31-2005, 03:29 AM
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Re: attitude on coinflips
[ QUOTE ]
Why has this "Folding EV discussion" gone on so long? Folding is always, always 0 chip EV(you have 800 chips. You fold. How many chips do you have now?). Folding can be all sorts of +/-$EV in a multiple payout tournament. That's like 3 sentences instead of these convoluted posts with ICM numbers when it's obvious you're just talking past each other. Simplistic- The truly tremendously stupid part of your involvement in this thread isn't that people told you the correct answer and showed why and you rejected them, it's because your fundamental reason for thinking this issue was up for debate was because the consensus in the MTT forum is coinflips are good. How come their support-free(apparently, since if the reason was explained you'd grasp why SNGs are different) convinced you but STT's supported and explained consensus failed to? [/ QUOTE ]i view STT as mini MTTs. accumulate early and use your stack to punish the weak/tights. but i'm over estimating my ability to use the big stack and translate that to a first place finish. also that MTTs are top heavy while STTs are much flatter in terms of structure.
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#58
10-31-2005, 03:35 AM
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Re: attitude on coinflips
Thank you pzhon, I see this all the time here. I'll link what you said back to Simplistic's
[ QUOTE ] if I translate this situation to a cash game, where the button has 1.01 and pushes all-in, it's folded to me in the BB and it's .01 for me to call. is folding EV- here? [/ QUOTE ] As pzhon said, this is accounting. Imagine you're in a situation with 3 options: Option A: +$3 EV Option B: +$1 EV Option C: -$2 EV Are both A and B "+EV"? Not really...you're looking for the optimum play each time. Just because you show a profit with option B doesn't mean it's to be done. Always look for the best option, not simply one you can tag with the "+EV" label.
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#59
10-31-2005, 03:35 AM
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Re: attitude on coinflips
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] This discussion is silly. There are different accounting systems. The important thing is that your accounting system lets you decide between two alternatives, not that it comes up with the "true" number. [/ QUOTE ] As mentionned earlier this would be true if we weren't talking about sit n gos. [/ QUOTE ] That just means you are really attached to a particular accounting system, not that your system is obviously the one true system. Here's another: Making the right play is always 0 EV. Every mistake is -EV. There are no +EV plays. <font color="white">For the nits: Ignore mixed strategies, and fu[/b]ck Shania.</font>
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#60
10-31-2005, 03:48 AM
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Re: attitude on coinflips
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] This discussion is silly. There are different accounting systems. The important thing is that your accounting system lets you decide between two alternatives, not that it comes up with the "true" number. [/ QUOTE ] As mentionned earlier this would be true if we weren't talking about sit n gos. [/ QUOTE ] That just means you are really attached to a particular accounting system, not that your system is obviously the one true system. Here's another: Making the right play is always 0 EV. Every mistake is -EV. There are no +EV plays. <font color="white">For the nits: Ignore mixed strategies, and fu[/b]ck Shania.</font> [/ QUOTE ] No, here's an example First hand of a tourney: before the hand is dealt your ev is .1 of the prize pool the first hand is dealt: UTG pushes, UTG + 1 calls, everyone folds to you on the button with 32o your options are - a) call: certainly -ev b) fold: which yields an ev of something like .101 In this example your equity increased thus it was +ev. What increased this equity? Folding! While this may seem like a silly example, you can see how similar effects on EV will have a greater impact when the blinds are bigger.
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