Should i have taken a different line of play? - Page 5

bernie · #41 06-08-2004, 10:44 AM

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since them calling or folding for one bet are both borderline, (they're barely getting the odds they need), whether or not they make this call is virtually neutral EV. Preventing them from making it MIGHT save you the pot, but this doesn't change the fact that the call itself has very little effect on your results over the long run.

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This looks like a case for checking the flop.

Would you rather put money in in a neutral EV situation or a Positive EV situation? A situation that may also help your chances at winning the pot more-so than on the flop which can affect your results in the longrun.

Some players will also call the initial turn bet, but then also fold when raised behind when they may actually have the odds to call.

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Clarkmeister · #42 06-08-2004, 11:54 AM

You are forgetting the impact of their effective odds on the turn.

Festus22 · #43 06-08-2004, 12:41 PM

Isn't this almost the EXACT same hand as the example in HPFAP where you have A-K, the pot is bloated and the flop is K-x-x? S&M's advice is to check the flop through and raise the turn. The rationale being to attempt to avoid being outdrawn on the river.

So it looks like you played this one by the book - literally.

nykenny · #44 06-08-2004, 01:51 PM

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What is your read of him since he called 2 on the turn?

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at this point, you can be pretty happy. i would be also. i would tend to put UTG on AK or AJ or AT, less likely other hands.

anyway, if i haven't said it, i would say it now. i don't think the flop check is terrible, i just think it isn't a good play.

Kenny

nykenny · #45 06-08-2004, 02:15 PM

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since them calling or folding for one bet are both borderline, (they're barely getting the odds they need), whether or not they make this call is virtually neutral EV. Preventing them from making it MIGHT save you the pot, but this doesn't change the fact that the call itself has very little effect on your results over the long run.

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This looks like a case for checking the flop.

Would you rather put money in in a neutral EV situation or a Positive EV situation? A situation that may also help your chances at winning the pot more-so than on the flop which can affect your results in the longrun.

Some players will also call the initial turn bet, but then also fold when raised behind when they may actually have the odds to call.

b

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most of you advocating checking on the flop are really arguing that the turn will be bet. what happens when turn is again checked to you? many people will check straight draws and flush draws on the turn here in a big field facing potentially strong hands (4 bets each pre-flop as an indication of hands out there).

it is true that the check on the flop will probably induce a bet from 2nd pair on the turn, but it might not. and even so, they might still fold to a raise with 5 outs at most.

nykenny · #46 06-08-2004, 02:20 PM

on a Q 7 4 r flop, most people are making a mistake calling the AQ's bet when they don't have a 7 or a 4. since this is a capped pot before the flop, people are likely to have paints and pocket pairs. other than AK and 7x and 4x, assuming you are in the lead, the rest of the hands are severely behind, why not let them pay now??

nykenny · #47 06-08-2004, 02:23 PM

the books example isn't about a capped pot, also, it's AK, no over card will hurt. K x x's x x can possibly hit someone's hand if they are a bunch of limpers, but Q74 is unlikely to have hit any cold-calling hands.

Senor Choppy · #48 06-08-2004, 02:27 PM

I was referring to the turn bet as being neutral EV. The flop bet is +EV by a mile, which is why I'm in favor of it.

If the bet they call on the turn with a gutshot is more or less neutral EV, that means, whether they win a huge pot ~1-20 times or not, it DOESN'T affect longterm results.

I agree that there are other benefits, like maybe a raise takes someone off a hand that has odds to see the river, but if it's a hand like AJ that picked up a gutshot, this is going to be another near neutral EV call for him, so the benefit to you isn't really that he folds, but that he put in 1 big bet with no gain.

bernie · #49 06-08-2004, 08:16 PM

Actually it's the one about AA on the button. p. 171.

The book's example is a little more draw heavy board, however. Which many here will 'really' disagree with checking.

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the books example isn't about a capped pot, also, it's AK, no over card will hurt.

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A big pot is a big pot. On mine, im only hoping a K doesnt hit. That's the only overcard im not happy at seeing.

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bernie · #50 06-08-2004, 08:20 PM

I thought about this today on the job and it didnt sit right with what i was trying to say. It may be corrected for me below, but i havent worked my way down the thread yet.

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Would you rather put money in in a neutral EV situation or a Positive EV situation?

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I meant to put this in the opponents perspective. Would you rather have them calling a neutral EV call or a negative EV call?

Obviously for me, betting the flop isn't neutral EV, it's positive.

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