10/20 AQs preflop - Page 5

QTip · #41 12-02-2005, 02:04 AM

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the fact that he might play a messed up 5% doesn't convince me

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These combines factors convince me:

1. This is only 100 hands.
2. His 5% can be messed up.
3. He sucks at poker.

I'm not ready to muck this hand to this player. Especially with the other players in this game.

MarkL444 · #42 12-02-2005, 02:37 AM

[ QUOTE ]
These combines factors convince me:

1. This is only 100 hands.
2. His 5% can be messed up.
3. He sucks at poker.

I'm not ready to muck this hand to this player. Especially with the other players in this game.

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this is my view exactly. if we had a million hands and knew for SURE his PFR in a full game was 5, the i fold

Shillx · #43 12-02-2005, 05:25 AM

My UTG PFR is about 75% of what my total PFR is. I have no idea what the average UTG PFR/PFR is, but it is certainly <100%. Probably by a significant amount. If this guy really is a 5% PFR (it seems silly to debate if he is or not, it is what we have so let's go with it) we figure to be anywhere from a 2:1 to a 3:2 underdog. Obviously these figures aren't the end all at a LHE table, but going in as a 2:1 dog seems to be too much to overcome vs someone who we probably have little folding equity against.

If push came to shove and you just had to see a flop, I would certainly not reraise here. Call and hope more people come into the pot. If you can get a few more coldcallers, your equity will creep back toward a number that you can hopefully overcome.

Brad

QTip · #44 12-02-2005, 09:45 AM

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My UTG PFR is about 75% of what my total PFR is. I have no idea what the average UTG PFR/PFR is, but it is certainly <100%. Probably by a significant amount. If this guy really is a 5% PFR (it seems silly to debate if he is or not, it is what we have so let's go with it) we figure to be anywhere from a 2:1 to a 3:2 underdog. Obviously these figures aren't the end all at a LHE table, but going in as a 2:1 dog seems to be too much to overcome vs someone who we probably have little folding equity against.

If push came to shove and you just had to see a flop, I would certainly not reraise here. Call and hope more people come into the pot. If you can get a few more coldcallers, your equity will creep back toward a number that you can hopefully overcome.

Brad

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Again, we're assuming his range changes with position. For someone playing 60 out of a 100 hands, I'm not sure that's a good assumption.

ErrantNight · #45 12-02-2005, 10:49 AM

if you'd rather raise than fold, fine, i can see that. in fact, i said in my original post that i thought those two were pretty close.

but i think calling is clearly better.

edited to add: ok maybe not CLEARLY better, but i still think it's better.

Entity · #46 12-02-2005, 11:39 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
the fact that he might play a messed up 5% doesn't convince me

[/ QUOTE ]

These combines factors convince me:

1. This is only 100 hands.
2. His 5% can be messed up.
3. He sucks at poker.

I'm not ready to muck this hand to this player. Especially with the other players in this game.

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I think you're letting your ego decide your play rather than fully considering the situation. Yes, he sucks at poker -- in general this is going to mean calling down more than folding improperly, especially in the hands of a 60/5 unknown. That diminishes our folding equity. We have no evidence whatsoever to support that he is raising A3s or 75s rather than what is, in general, the top ~4-5% of his hands here nor do we have any guaranteed dead money in the pot to subsidize our call.

There are a lot of factors that could normally swing me to 3-bet this, or to coldcall with it, but none of them are here right now.

Given how much of a dog we are against a standard ~4-5% PFR (that's all we have to go on) and with no knowledge of the action behind us, even with a postflop skill edge I'm not happy tangling here.

Just to satisfy my curiousity, I ran an equity sim on AQs here versus one random hand (BB), one coldcalling top 40% hand (loose player behind us), PFR's range, and our AQs. We have exactly "fair share" in that situation. PFR's range of hands really prevents us from ever really having a huge edge preflop (against the field; we're a HUGE dog HU to his range), and we'd need quite a large field to help guarantee that we can realize our postflop edge when it comes down to it.

I'm siding with John Feeney on this one. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Rob

thejameser · #47 12-02-2005, 11:53 AM

i like a call and pray for spades. a 3 bet seems spewy to me. you can psychologically get away easier, you are usually behind, and there are several still to act. against a 10/20 Lag I would call. i don't mind inviting others in because my hand plays well mulitway. creating a monster pot that may be capped pf would allow any hand to properly draw. we have just a strong enough holding to call, and besides that for me, it is closer to a fold than a 3 bet. closer to a fold because i have reservations about a possible reraise behind me.

Entity · #48 12-02-2005, 11:56 AM

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i like a call and pray for spades. a 3 bet seems spewy to me. you can psychologically get away easier, you are usually behind, and there are several still to act. against a 10/20 Lag I would call. i don't mind inviting others in because my hand plays well mulitway. creating a monster pot that may be capped pf would allow any hand to properly draw. we have just a strong enough holding to call, and besides that for me, it is closer to a fold than a 3 bet. closer to a fold because i have reservations about a possible reraise behind me.

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I hate any line preflop which requires me to hope for cards to come, or to hope for cards not to come, or to hope at all.

This is partly toungue-in-cheek but mostly honest.

Rob

thejameser · #49 12-02-2005, 12:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i like a call and pray for spades. a 3 bet seems spewy to me. you can psychologically get away easier, you are usually behind, and there are several still to act. against a 10/20 Lag I would call. i don't mind inviting others in because my hand plays well mulitway. creating a monster pot that may be capped pf would allow any hand to properly draw. we have just a strong enough holding to call, and besides that for me, it is closer to a fold than a 3 bet. closer to a fold because i have reservations about a possible reraise behind me.

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I hate any line preflop which requires me to hope for cards to come, or to hope for cards not to come, or to hope at all.

This is partly toungue-in-cheek but mostly honest.

Rob

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i was being facetious, i don't hope for anything when i play a hand. my only desire is to play it appropriately given the circumstances.

Entity · #50 12-02-2005, 12:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
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i like a call and pray for spades. a 3 bet seems spewy to me. you can psychologically get away easier, you are usually behind, and there are several still to act. against a 10/20 Lag I would call. i don't mind inviting others in because my hand plays well mulitway. creating a monster pot that may be capped pf would allow any hand to properly draw. we have just a strong enough holding to call, and besides that for me, it is closer to a fold than a 3 bet. closer to a fold because i have reservations about a possible reraise behind me.

[/ QUOTE ]

I hate any line preflop which requires me to hope for cards to come, or to hope for cards not to come, or to hope at all.

This is partly toungue-in-cheek but mostly honest.

Rob

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i was being facetious, i don't hope for anything when i play a hand. my only desire is to play it appropriately given the circumstances.

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I understand, but I was attempting to underscore the fact that when we coldcall with AQs against a currently-unknown 5% PFR, we have to hope for a few things, don't we?

Rob