HOLDEM or FOLDEM

[scott8]

I think he was saying the most likely scenario is that we are behind, but not impossible we are ahead.

This is why I think MLG had an opponent specific play in mind when he mini-raised. The lead out on the flop coupled with the cold call of the pre-flop raise had to tell him something about his opponent's hand.

Not sure if he was trying to get all the money in the pot by putting out a weak looking raise, or if he knew his opponent would only continue with the hand if he had MLG beat.

[locutus2002]

I can't imagine raising the flop in order to fold to a push after hitting my hand so hard.

I think the miniraise is going to provoke a push by many hands that are worse than yours. Including 65, pair of 55, and any 4 thinking they have FE.

[adanthar]

It's *a* possibility, but I think he has an overpair far more often than something like 65 or 55. But I'm rarely in that situation because I push the flop for sure.

[Exitonly]

you think an aggresive player is jsut calling w/ a pair PF?

[adanthar]

Is this the first time MLG has minraised PF all game? It probably is.

[EverettKings]

[ QUOTE ]
I think by far the most likely outcome is that you have 5 outs, so I fold. (But while I know you said not to say anything yet, I push the flop. Let's talk about the minraise when you post the results, I think that's the more important part of this hand.)

[/ QUOTE ]

You're getting 3:1 on a 4:1 shot if you're ALWAYS drawing to 5 outs. I think he can have A4 or 75 or 76 or 55 enough here to make this a call.

I'm really not sure how to factor payouts into this. I feel like I should still be playing CEV poker for the most part, unless the decision is quite close. I don't think it's all that close here.

Everett

[scott8]

The more we discuss this, the more I feel that MLG figured his opponent would be drawing to 3 outs after this flop.

[adanthar]

I'm kinda keeping that in the back of my head, but if the hand is *that* opponent specific and you're trying to induce a push the whole way, there's not much reason to post it other than as an example.

If the villain has a range that's reacting to MLG minraising, but is somewhat reasonable, it's a totally different hand.

[Sluss]

This has a smell of an AK. Call an aggressive players raise, then lead out on the flop when he min raises it looks super weak and you come over the top. I'm not so sure an overpair reacts like this. Plus, AA,KK,QQ and to a lesser extent,JJ,1010 have a tendency to push or at leat re-raise p-flop.

If the player is smart he would understand that he is in a WAWB situation with this flop and an overpair. So if he has him killed he wants more money in the pot (which a push doesn't have a good chance of doing) if he is killed he would be fine with keeping the pot smaller.

I say overcards. I think calling works. My range would be AK, AQ, KQ, QJ,J10,109,89,78,67 and to a lesser extent overpairs like 55,66,77,88,99,1010,JJ. Making it a +EV call.

[scott8]

Do you really think AK CC preflop from a button raise?